由于市场对日本央行未来加息的时间仍存在分歧，日元兑美元贬值超过150日元，从近期高点回落。上周末，日本央行行长上田和夫表示，随着经济数据继续与预期保持一致，进一步加息“即将到来”。他还强调了2025财年工资谈判势头的重要性。目前，市场预计日本本月加息25个基点的可能性为60%，高于最近几周的约50%。与此同时，投资者对美元的走强仍持谨慎态度，这得益于强劲的美国经济数据和美国当选总统特朗普对其他主要经济体的关税威胁。

The Japanese yen depreciated past 150 per dollar, retreating from recent highs as the market remains divided over the timing of future Bank of Japan interest rate hikes. Over the weekend, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that additional rate hikes are "nearing," as economic data continues to align with expectations. He also emphasized the importance of momentum from fiscal 2025 wage negotiations. Currently, markets are pricing in a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in Japan this month, up from about 50% in recent weeks. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious about the dollar’s strength, which has been supported by strong US economic data and US President-elect Trump’s tariff threats against other major economies.

放松对法国不信任投票。韩国总统尹昨日突然实施戒严令，指责在议会中占多数的反对党瘫痪了他的政府，几小时后才解除戒严令。韩元和股市下跌，更广泛的亚洲市场和加密货币的波动性更高，但影响仍然有限，美国和欧洲的期货将积极开放，法国可以安全地回到前台，立法者准备今天举行不信任投票，推翻巴尼耶政府。

Relaxed into French No-Confidence Vote.South Korea briefly stole the light from the French political chaos after President Yoon suddenly imposed the martial law yesterday accusing the opposition party – which holds the majority in the parliament – of paralysing his administration, only to lift it a few hours later. The Korean won and the stocks fell, and the volatility in broader Asian markets and cryptocurrencies was higher, but the impact remained limited, the US and European futures are set for a positive open and France could safely come back to the front of the scene with lawmakers preparing to hold a no-confidence vote today and to take Barnier's government down.

巴尼耶面临不信任投票之际，法国政治在林博。对法国总理米歇尔·巴尼耶的不信任投票将成为焦点，定于今天下午16:00 CET举行。当马琳·勒庞的政党宣布他们将支持不信任投票时，政府今晚很可能会崩溃。

French Politics in Limbo as Barnier Faces No-Confidence Vote.The no-confidence vote against French PM Michel Barnier is set to take center stage and is scheduled this afternoon at 16:00 CET. As Marine Le Pen's party announced they would support the vote of no confidence, the government will most likely collapse this evening.

2024年11月，斯坦比克银行乌干达采购经理人指数从上个月的52.9攀升至55.7，标志着乌干达私营部门连续第八个月扩张。这一数据也标志着自8月以来最强劲的增长，这是由于销售环境改善和新客户收购导致的新订单持续增加。随后，企业提高了生产水平，延续了4月份开始的增长势头，这主要归功于客户需求的稳步复苏。与此同时，由于一些工人为了追求更高的工资而离开，就业人数自2023年3月以来首次下降。在价格方面，投入价格继续攀升，采购和员工支出都是导致价格上涨的原因。与此同时，公司连续第三个月提高了售价。展望未来，乌干达公司对经济前景保持乐观，理由是计划投资和对未来一年强劲消费需求的预期。

The Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI climbed to 55.7 in November 2024 from 52.9 in the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion in Uganda's private sector. This reading also signaled the strongest growth since August, driven by sustained increases in new orders due to an improved sales environment and new client acquisitions. Subsequently, firms boosted their production levels, extending the growth streak that began in April, mainly attributed to a steady recovery in customer demand. Meanwhile, employment declined for the first time since March 2023, as some workers left in pursuit of higher wages. On the price front, input prices continued to climb, with both purchase and staff expenses contributing to the rise. At the same time, firms raised their selling prices for the third consecutive month. Looking ahead, Ugandan firms remained optimistic about the economic outlook, citing planned investments and expectations of robust consumer demand over the coming year.