美国5年期国债 (US5Y) 加自选

周四，美元指数徘徊在98.3附近，在最近上涨后趋于稳定，因为投资者正在等待美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会的利率方向。市场关注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话，以获取政策制定者是否可能推翻短期宽松预期的信号。期货目前预计9月份降息25个基点的可能性为82%，低于一周前的94%。美联储7月会议纪要显示，官员们仍然更关心通货膨胀，而不是劳动力市场风险，关税进一步分裂了委员会。在华盛顿，唐纳德·特朗普总统呼吁美联储理事丽莎·库克因涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈而辞职，并重申了他对降低利率的推动。随着鲍威尔的任期将于5月届满，特朗普正在权衡可能的继任者，而财政部长斯科特·贝森特已公开支持在9月前将利率下调0.5个百分点。

The dollar index hovered near 98.3 on Thursday, steadying after recent gains as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium for direction on interest rates. Markets are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for signals on whether policymakers may push back against expectations for near-term easing. Futures currently price in an 82% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September, down from 94% a week earlier. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials remain more concerned about inflation than labor market risks, with tariffs further dividing the committee. In Washington, President Donald Trump called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s resignation over alleged mortgage fraud and reiterated his push for lower rates. With Powell’s term set to expire in May, Trump is weighing possible successors, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly backed a larger half-point cut by September.