利率预测：美联储和日本央行分歧，美元/日元接近160。强劲的美国就业数据、不断上升的国债收益率和日本央行的政策风险使美元/日元保持在160附近，因为市场正在关注下一个利率决定。

Interest Rates Forecast: USD/JPY Near 160 as Fed and BOJ Diverge.Strong U.S. jobs data, rising Treasury yields, and BOJ policy risks keep USD/JPY near 160 as markets watch the next interest rate decision.

随着人工智能贸易破裂、美联储风险上升和伊朗冲突升级，市场面临三重威胁。本周结束时，市场的防御情绪比开始时要强烈得多。在人工智能热情、有弹性的经济增长和缓解地缘政治紧张局势的希望的推动下，5月份的股市稳步攀升，投资者突然被迫同时面对三种不同的风险。

Markets Face Triple Threat as AI Trade Cracks, Fed Risks Rise, and Iran Conflict Escalates.Markets ended the week in a far more defensive mood than they began it. After spending May climbing steadily on the back of AI enthusiasm, resilient economic growth, and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions, investors were suddenly forced to confront three separate risks at once.

一周前：强劲的就业数据推动美元飙升，而欧洲央行加息被视为已达成协议。中东战争继续扰乱来自该地区的资金流动，并有助于形成风险偏好。在5月的最后两周下跌了近14%之后，7月WTI上周上涨了约4.5%，因为在解决问题方面似乎进展甚微。

Week Ahead: Surging Greenback on Robust Jobs Data, while ECB Hike Seen as a Done Deal.The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt flows from the region and helps shape risk appetites. After falling by almost 14% in the last two weeks of May, July WTI rose about 4.5% last week as there seemed to be little progress toward a resolution.

2026年油价预测：如果海峡关闭持续下去，荷兰合作银行预计布伦特原油价格将飙升。油价已从近期高点回落，本周早些时候达到95.32美元后，油价/美元交易价格接近90.54美元。然而，荷兰合作银行认为，市场低估了持续的能源供应中断的严重性。

Oil Price Forecast 2026: Rabobank Sees Brent Crude Surging if Strait Closure Persists.Oil prices have fallen back from recent highs, with OIL/USD trading near $90.54 after reaching $95.32 earlier this week. However, Rabobank believes the market is underestimating the severity of the ongoing energy supply disruption.