澳元/美元 (AUDUSD) 加自选

欧元抛售暂停。Ankur Banerjee展望欧洲和全球市场的未来

EUROPE Dollar selling takes a breather.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

周二，澳元小幅下跌至0.645美元左右，从最近五个月的高点回落，因对美中贸易谈判的希望以及美联储政策决定前投资者的谨慎态度，美元走强。澳元还面临下行压力，来自低于预期的国内建筑许可数据和中国服务业增长放缓的迹象，中国服务业是澳大利亚出口的关键市场。在国内，总理安东尼·阿尔巴内塞周六连任后的政治稳定提供了一些保证，总理承诺建立一个“有纪律、有秩序”的政府，专注于缓解生活成本压力和管理全球贸易波动。在货币政策方面，市场普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在即将召开的5月会议上将基准利率下调25个基点至3.85%，因为政策制定者在通胀担忧与经济势头减弱之间取得了平衡。

The Australian dollar edged lower to around $0.645 on Tuesday, pulling back from recent five-month highs as the US dollar firmed on hopes for US-China trade talks and investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Aussie also faced downward pressure from weaker-than-expected domestic building permits data and signs of slowing growth in China’s services sector, a key market for Australian exports. Domestically, political stability following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s re-election on Saturday offered some reassurance, with the PM pledging a “disciplined, orderly” government focused on easing cost-of-living pressures and managing global trade volatility. On the monetary policy front, markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% at its upcoming May meeting, as policymakers balance inflation concerns with weakening economic momentum.

周二，美元指数升至100左右，打破了连续两天的下跌，因为投资者继续应对与贸易有关的不确定性。在最近几个交易日的一轮抛售压力之后，美元兑大多数亚洲货币也有所回升。台湾元和马来西亚林吉特引领了该地区最近的涨幅，台湾货币周一创下三年新高。这一激增引发了人们的猜测，即货币升值可能是促进与美国贸易谈判的更广泛努力的一部分。投资者的注意力现在转向了美联储的货币政策决定。尽管预计美联储将保持利率稳定，但市场将密切关注主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的言论，以寻找有关未来政策转变的任何信号，特别是在关税紧张局势加剧和特朗普总统要求降低利率的政治压力下。

The dollar index rose to around 100 on Tuesday, breaking a two-day slide as investors continued to navigate trade-related uncertainties. The greenback also recovered ground against most Asian currencies, following a bout of selling pressure in recent sessions. The Taiwanese dollar and Malaysian ringgit led recent gains in the region, with Taiwan’s currency hitting a three-year high on Monday. The surge has fueled speculation that currency appreciation may be part of broader efforts to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. Investor attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, markets will closely scrutinize Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for any signals regarding future policy shifts, especially under the backdrop of intensifying tariff tensions and political pressure from President Trump to lower rates.

初步数据显示，2025年3月，澳大利亚私人住宅审批量环比下降4.5%，至8804套的13个月低点，扭转了2月份1.1%的小幅增长。这是三个月来的首次下降，也是自2024年1月以来的最大降幅，维多利亚州（-10.0%）、昆士兰州（-8.0%）和新南威尔士州（-2.5%）的许可证下降。相比之下，西澳大利亚州（10.3%）和南澳大利亚州（4.6%）的批准率有所上升。

Private house approvals in Australia fell by 4.5% month-over-month to a 13-month low of 8,804 units in March 2025, reversing a marginally revised 1.1% increase in February, according to preliminary data. It marked the first decline in three months and the sharpest since January 2024, with permits falling in Victoria (-10.0%), Queensland (-8.0%), and New South Wales (-2.5%). In contrast, approvals rose in Western Australia (10.3%) and South Australia (4.6%).