澳元/日元 (AUDJPY) 加自选

日本5年期政府债券拍卖反映出适度谨慎。日本最近一次5年期政府债券拍卖的投标覆盖率为3.69，略低于9月份上一次拍卖的3.70，表明投资者的兴趣略有减弱。

Japan 5year Japanese Government Bond auction reflects modest caution.Japan's latest 5-year government bond (JGB) auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.69, marginally below 3.70 at the previous sale in September, signalling slightly softer investor appetite.

周四，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率连续第三天下跌至4.32%，反映了美国债券收益率的下降，因为政府关门持续，而最新的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要显示，对未来降息的步伐存在一些不决定。市场参与者现在正在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔今天晚些时候的讲话，以获得对美国政策前景的更明确指导。与此同时，在国内，投资者对澳大利亚储备银行（Reserve Bank of Australia）今年将再次降息的信心有所下降，此前该行上周发表了鹰派展望。现在很大程度上取决于本月晚些时候公布的第三季度消费者价格报告，该报告的高读数可能会破坏11月宽松的任何机会。鉴于最近通货膨胀的加剧，期货意味着澳大利亚储备银行在11月降低3.65%现金利率的可能性只有50%。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell for the third day to 4.32% on Thursday, mirroring a decline in US bond yields as the government shutdown drags on while the latest FOMC minutes showed some indecision over the pace of future rate cuts. Market participants are now awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today for clearer guidance on the US policy outlook. Meanwhile, at home, investors have grown less confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver another rate cut this year, following its hawkish outlook last week. Much now depends on the third-quarter consumer price report, due later this month, where a high reading would likely derail any chance of an easing in November. Futures imply only a 50% probability that the RBA will lower its 3.65% cash rate in November, given the recent strength in inflation.

周四，日本10年期政府债券收益率小幅回落至1.69%左右，但仍接近2008年以来的最高水平，尽管政治转变和疲软的数据降低了对日本央行进一步收紧政策的预期。保守党领袖高一真惠（Sanae Takaichi）是安倍经济学式刺激计划的坚定拥护者，她赢得了党内领导权竞选，使她成为日本下一任首相，并推动了对更高财政支出和持续宽松货币环境的押注。与此同时，8月份实际工资同比下降1.4%，延续了连续8个月的下降趋势，因为通货膨胀继续超过工资增长。日本央行行长上田和夫最近表示，如果经济和价格趋势保持正轨，加息可能会恢复，但他警告称，经济增长面临下行风险。投资者现在等待周五的生产者通胀数据，以获得更多的政策信号。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield eased slightly to around 1.69% on Thursday but remained near its highest level since 2008, even as political shifts and weak data tempered expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening. Conservative leader Sanae Takaichi, a firm advocate of Abenomics-style stimulus, won the party leadership race, positioning her to become Japan’s next prime minister and fueling bets on higher fiscal spending and continued accommodative monetary settings. Meanwhile, real wages fell 1.4% in August from a year earlier, extending an eight-month streak of declines as inflation continued to outpace pay growth. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that rate hikes could resume if economic and price trends stay on track but cautioned about downside risks to growth. Investors now await Friday’s producer inflation data for additional policy signals.

周四，澳元在前一交易日上涨的基础上上涨至0.660美元左右，通胀预期上升强化了澳大利亚储备银行的鹰派立场。消费者通胀预期从9月的4.7%升至2025年10月的4.8%，为6月以来的最高水平，因为人们担心第三季度通胀可能超过预期。受补贴减少、劳动力成本上升以及全球贸易和大宗商品压力的推动，价格上涨加剧了价格压力挥之不去的迹象。这强化了央行的谨慎立场，由于持续的通货膨胀和劳动力市场紧张，预计央行在9月份将政策利率保持在3.6%后将保持稳定。与此同时，美元走强限制了上行空间，因为投资者继续权衡持续的政府关门的影响，这刺激了避险需求。市场现在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔今天晚些时候的评论，此前联邦公开市场委员会会议对未来的利率走势显示出喜忧参半的看法。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.660 on Thursday, building on the prior session’s gains, as higher inflation expectations reinforced the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance. Consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.8% in October 2025 from 4.7% in September, the highest since June, amid concerns that Q3 inflation could surpass forecasts. The uptick, driven by the rollback of subsidies, elevated labor costs, and global trade and commodity pressures, adds to signs of lingering price pressures. This reinforces the central bank’s cautious stance, which is expected to hold its policy rate steady after keeping it at 3.6% in September, citing persistent inflation and a tight labor market. Meanwhile, upside was capped by a firmer US dollar as investors continued to weigh the impact of the ongoing government shutdown, which fueled safe-haven demand. Markets now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today after the FOMC meeting showed mixed views on future rate moves.