澳元/日元 (AUDJPY) 加自选

周一，日元兑美元汇率升至147.5左右，收复了上周的部分失地，因为市场将注意力转向了日本央行的政策会议。人们普遍预计日本央行将把利率稳定在0.5%，因为官员们正在权衡国内逆风和全球风险，包括美国关税的影响。交易员们也在等待新的贸易数据，预计进出口将保持低迷，以及通胀数据，核心CPI预计将放缓至2.7%，为2024年11月以来的最低水平。从外部来看，预计美联储本周将降息25个基点，最近的美国数据表明劳动力状况疲软，通胀放缓。与此同时，由于日本投资者庆祝国庆节，交易量可能仍然很小。

The yen strengthened to around 147.5 per dollar on Monday, recovering part of last week’s losses as markets turned their focus to the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. The BOJ is widely expected to leave rates steady at 0.5% as officials weigh domestic headwinds and global risks, including the effects of US tariffs. Traders also await fresh trade data, with both exports and imports projected to stay subdued, as well as inflation figures, where core CPI is forecast to slow to 2.7%, the lowest since November 2024. Externally, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut this week, with recent US data signaling softer labor conditions and muted inflation. Meanwhile, trading volumes are likely to remain light as Japanese investors observe a national holiday.

随着对储备银行进一步降息的预期减弱，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.29%左右，延续了其从上周四周多低点的复苏。在澳大利亚7月强劲的贸易顺差、第二季度稳健的国内生产总值和7月高于预期的通货膨胀的支持下，掉期现在定价为9月政策不变的可能性为86%。澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock最近还强调了私营部门温和增长的早期迹象，称这是对整体经济的积极信号。她的言论突显了央行的谨慎态度，并增强了市场对进一步宽松政策可能是渐进的预期。展望未来，投资者的注意力正转向即将发布的就业报告和澳大利亚储备银行官员的预定演讲，这可能会为央行的货币政策轨迹及其对今年剩余时间的展望提供更多见解。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.29%, extending its recovery from a more than four-week low last week, as expectations of further Reserve Bank rate cuts diminished. Swaps are now pricing in an 86% probability of unchanged policy in September, supported by Australia’s strong July trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and hotter-than-expected July inflation. RBA Governor Michele Bullock also recently highlighted early signs of modest growth in the private sector, describing it as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks underscored the central bank’s cautious approach and strengthened market expectations that any further easing is likely to be gradual. Looking ahead, investor attention is shifting to the forthcoming employment report and scheduled speeches by RBA officials, which could provide additional insight into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory and its outlook for the remainder of the year.

周一，澳元上涨至0.66美元左右，延续了上周的涨幅，在本周晚些时候备受期待的联邦公开市场委员会政策决定之前，美元走软。市场目前预计，周三降息25个基点的可能性为96%，而加息50个基点的几率只有4%。在国内方面，本周澳大利亚的经济日历仍然相对清淡。然而，投资者的注意力正转向即将发布的就业报告和澳大利亚储备银行官员的预定演讲，这可能会进一步了解央行的政策轨迹。上周，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克强调了私营部门“略有增长”的令人鼓舞的迹象，称这对更广泛的经济来说是一个积极的信号。她的言论强化了澳大利亚储备银行的谨慎立场，并支持了市场对央行将在本月底即将举行的政策会议上保持利率不变的预期。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.66 on Monday, extending gains from the previous week amid a softer greenback ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC policy decision later this week. Markets are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday, with only a slim 4% chance of a larger 50 bps move. On the domestic front, Australia’s economic calendar remains relatively light this week. However, investor focus is shifting toward the upcoming employment report and scheduled speeches from RBA officials, which could offer further insight into the central bank’s policy trajectory. Last week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted encouraging signs of “a little bit more growth” in the private sector, characterizing this as a positive signal for the broader economy. Her remarks reinforced the RBA’s cautious stance and supported market expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold at its upcoming policy meeting at the end of the month.

澳大利亚澳新银行因债券交易和客户违规支付1.6亿美元。澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团将支付巨额罚款。处罚是针对不当行为，包括向已故客户收费。

Australia's ANZ to pay $160 million over bond deal, customer violations.Australia and New Zealand Banking Group will pay a hefty fine. The penalty is for misconduct including charging deceased customers.