周四，恒生指数下跌104点，收于19601点，跌幅0.5%，此前一个交易日略有上涨，受英伟达盈利预测低于一些投资者的高预期后美国期货小幅下跌的拖累。与此同时，高盛分析师指出，美国大选后宏观环境发生了明显变化，美元走强对亚洲股市构成了不利因素。尽管如此，由于希望北京明年可能采取更强有力的财政政策来应对特朗普关税对中国出口的影响，损失有所减轻。所有行业均下跌，科技和房地产板块跌幅最大。由于对未来利润增长的担忧，快手科技股价下跌1.8%，而阿里巴巴影业股价下跌8.4%，原因是2024年上半年利润下降。其他主要输家包括雅迪集团（-5.2%）、周大福珠宝（-4.2%）和KE控股（-2.8%）。交易员们现在等待香港将于今天晚些时候公布的通胀数据，此前9月份的数据达到了三个月来的最低水平2.2%。

The Hang Seng fell by 104 points or 0.5% to close at 19,601 on Thursday after a slight gain in the previous session, dragged by a modest drop in US futures following Nvidia's earnings forecast which fell short of some investors' high expectations. Meantime, Goldman Sachs analysts noted a clear shift in the macro environment post-US election, with a stronger dollar posing headwinds for Asian equities. Still, losses were mitigated by hopes that Beijing might adopt stronger fiscal policies next year to counter the impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese exports. All sectors declined, with tech and property among the top losers. Kuaishou Tech tumbled 1.8% due to concerns about future profit growth, while Alibaba Pictures fell 8.4% on lower profits in H1 of 2024. Other major losers included Yadea Group (-5.2%), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (-4.2%), and KE Holdings (-2.8%). Traders now await Hong Kong's inflation data, due later today, after the September figure reached a three-month low of 2.2%.

2024年11月，法国的商业环境指标降至96，略低于上个月的97。大多数市场部门的情绪都有所恶化，即建筑业（10月份为99比100）、服务业（99比101）和零售业（98比99）。相比之下，制造商的士气从10月份的93人提高到97人。与此同时，就业环境指标已回升至99，比一个月前上升了2个点，接近其长期平均水平100，主要是由于服务业（包括临时工作机构）劳动力规模的意见平衡有所提高，在较小程度上，制造业的意见平衡也有所提高。

The business climate indicator in France fell to 96 in November 2024, edging lower from 97 in the previous month. Sentiment deteriorated across most market sectors, namely building construction (99 vs 100 in October), services (99 vs 101), and retail trade (98 vs 99). In contrast, morale among manufacturers improved to 97 from 93 in October. Meanwhile, the employment climate indicator has rebounded to 99, gaining two points from a month earlier and nearing its long-term average of 100, primarily driven by higher opinion balances on workforce size in services (including temporary work agencies) and, to a lesser extent, in the manufacturing sector.

2024年11月，法国的制造业景气指数从10月的93上升至96.7，高于市场预期的95。制造商对过去的产量（-7比10月的-12）、整体订单（-21比-25）和国外订单（-19比-22）不那么悲观。对预期的劳动力变化（2比-1）和个人生产前景（5比-2）的评估也转为积极。感知经济不确定性的指标从上个月的25降至23。然而，对总体生产预期的看法更为负面（-14对-12），对预期销售价格趋势的看法不那么乐观（3对7）。

The manufacturing climate indicator in France improved to 96.7 in November 2024, up from a revised 93 in October and above market expectations of 95. Manufacturers were less pessimistic about past production (-7 vs. -12 in October), overall order books (-21 vs. -25), and foreign order books (-19 vs. -22). Assessments also turned positive for expected workforce changes (2 vs. -1) and personal production outlook (5 vs. -2). The gauge for perceived economic uncertainty eased to 23, down from 25 in the previous month. However, views were more negative regarding general production expectations (-14 vs. -12) and less optimistic about expected selling price trends (3 vs. 7).

美元：美元保持上涨–ING。DXY美元指数保持上涨，不难看出原因。ING的Chris Turner指出，随着市场不再为12月美联储降息定价，美国利率正在小幅上调。

USD: Dollar holds gains – ING.The DXY dollar index is holding gains and it is not hard to see why. US rates are being repriced modestly higher as the market shifts away from pricing a December Fed rate cut, ING's Chris Turner notes.

含铁量为62%的铁矿石价格上涨至每吨102美元，在最大消费国中国需求反弹的新希望下，停止了最近的下跌。广州市最近扩大了购买旧公寓的计划，这可能会刺激对包括铁矿石在内的建筑材料的需求。与此同时，正如预期的那样，中国央行本周保持了关键贷款利率不变，没有提供任何新的信号来显著影响全球最大金属消费国的需求。在供应方面，澳大利亚等主要生产商铁矿石出货量增加的报道，以及中国港口库存的增加，继续给价格带来下行压力。

Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content rose toward $102 per tonne, halting a recent decline amid renewed hopes for a rebound in demand from top consumer China. The city of Guangzhou recently expanded its program to purchase older apartments, which could stimulate demand for construction materials, including iron ore. Meanwhile, China’s central bank kept key lending rates unchanged this week, as expected, providing no new signals that would significantly impact demand in the world’s largest metals consumer. On the supply side, reports of higher iron ore shipments from major producers such as Australia, along with rising stockpiles at Chinese ports, continued to put downward pressure on prices.

周四，白银价格上涨至每盎司31.20美元以上，从上一交易日的下跌中恢复过来，因为地缘政治紧张局势加剧，提振了对贵金属等避险资产的需求。周三，乌克兰向俄罗斯发射了一系列英国制造的导弹，此前曾用美国制造的导弹进行过打击。此外，美国否决了联合国安理会呼吁加沙停火的决议，进一步加剧了地缘政治的不确定性。在货币政策方面，美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼和丽莎·库克在周三的单独声明中对通货膨胀和未来降息路径提出了相互矛盾的观点。在中国，正如预期的那样，中国人民银行本周保持了关键贷款利率不变，没有提供可能影响全球最大金属消费国需求的新信号。

Silver prices rose above $31.20 per ounce on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous session as heightened geopolitical tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched a series of UK-made missiles into Russia, following a previous strike with US-made missiles. Additionally, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, further escalating geopolitical uncertainties. On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook offered conflicting views on inflation and the future path for interest rate cuts in separate statements on Wednesday. In China, the PBOC kept key lending rates unchanged this week, as expected, offering no new signals that could affect demand in the world’s largest consumer of metals.

截至2024年9月的三个月里，挪威大陆经济（不包括主要以石油为基础的海上部门）的国内生产总值环比增长0.5%，超过了市场预期，高于上一时期向上修正的0.3%的增长率。这一扩张是由工业和采矿产量增长2.3%推动的，其中炼油、化工、制药和机器维修产量增长最为突出。继上一季度疲软之后，渔业和水产养殖也飙升了14%。然而，这些收益部分被水电产量减少导致的电力生产下降和建筑活动连续第五个季度下降所抵消，主要是由于住房建设疲软。在支出方面，第三季度家庭消费基本保持不变，汽车购买量下降，而服务消费和海外支出上升。挪威大陆的国内生产总值每年增长1.6%，较上一季度的2.9%有所放缓。

GDP in Norway’s mainland economy, which excludes the largely petroleum-based offshore sector, grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2024, exceeding market estimates and up from the previous period’s upwardly revised 0.3% growth. The expansion was driven by a 2.3% rise in industry and mining output, led by increases in oil refining, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and machine repair. Fishing and aquaculture also surged by 14%, following a weak previous quarter. However, these gains were partially offset by a decline in electricity production due to reduced hydropower output and a fifth consecutive quarterly drop in construction activity, primarily due to weaker housing construction. On the expenditure side, household consumption remained largely unchanged in Q3, with car purchases declining, while service consumption and spending abroad rose. Annually, the GDP in mainland Norway expanded 1.6%, slowing from a 2.9% growth in the prior quarter.

2024年9月，挪威家庭商品消费环比增长1.8%，高于上月的1.4%。这标志着自6月以来家庭支出的最高增长，因为食品、饮料和烟草（8月份为4.5%对1.2%）和其他商品（2%对0%）的支出有所增加。此外，电力和供暖燃料的消费反弹（1.0%对-0.2%）。与此同时，汽车和汽油的购买量下降（-3.2%对6.6%）。

Household consumption of goods in Norway rose by 1.8% month-on-month in September 2024, accelerating from 1.4% in the previous month. This marked the highest growth in household spending since June, as expenditures rose for food, beverages and tobacco (4.5% vs 1.2% in August) and other goods (2% vs 0%). Moreover, consumption rebounded for electricity and heating fuels (1.0% vs -0.2%). Meanwhile, purchases of vehicles and petrol declined (-3.2% vs 6.6%).

日本央行行长上田和夫在一次演讲中表示，日本央行在制定经济和通胀前景时将认真考虑汇率变动。他还提到，一旦唐纳德·特朗普宣布细节，央行将把下一任总统领导下的美国政策的影响纳入其经济前景。美元最近飙升，部分原因是市场预期特朗普提出的通胀政策可能会限制美联储的降息，这给日元带来了下行压力。在货币政策方面，上田表示，日本央行将根据现有信息“逐一会议”做出决定。最近，他表示，如果日本经济和物价与央行的预测一致，他准备再次加息。

The Bank of Japan will seriously consider exchange rate movements when forming its economic and inflation outlook, Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech. He also mentioned that the central bank would incorporate the effects of US policies under the next president into its economic outlook once Donald Trump announces details. The dollar's recent surge, fueled in part by market expectations that Trump's proposed inflationary policies might restrict the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, has put downward pressure on the yen. On monetary policy, Ueda said the BoJ would make decisions "meeting by meeting" based on available information. Recently, he signaled his readiness to raise interest rates again if the Japanese economy and prices align with the central bank's forecast.

TTF天然气价格升至47.44欧元/兆瓦时的51周高点。在过去的4周里，天然气欧盟荷兰TTF上涨了15.2%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了6.06%。

TTF Gas increased to a 51-week high of 47.44 EUR/MWh. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF gained 15.2%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 6.06%.

在截至2024年9月的三个月里，挪威经济环比收缩1.8%，此前一个时期修正后增长了2%。这标志着一年来的首次收缩，主要是由于石油活动和海洋运输的急剧下降（第二季度为-5.8%对5.1%）。净贸易也对GDP造成压力，出口下降4.4%（第二季度增长6.2%），而进口下降0.3%（第四季度增长4%）。此外，政府支出增长放缓（0.8%对1.1%），家庭消费停滞不前（0%对1.5%）。另一方面，固定投资增长进一步加速（4.5%对3.5%）。挪威国内生产总值同比增长3.5%，低于上一季度5.4%的大幅增长，这是自2021年第四季度以来最快的增长速度。

The Norwegian economy contracted by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2024, following a revised 2% expansion in the previous period. This marked the first contraction in exactly a year, driven primarily by a sharp decline in petroleum activities and ocean transport (-5.8% vs. 5.1% in Q2). Net trade also weighed on GDP, as exports fell 4.4% (vs. 6.2% growth in Q2), while imports declined more modestly by 0.3% (vs. 4%). Additionally, growth in government spending slowed (0.8% vs. 1.1%), and household consumption stagnated (0% vs. 1.5%). On the other hand, fixed investment growth accelerated further (4.5% vs. 3.5%). Year-on-year, Norwegian GDP grew by 3.5%, down from a significantly higher revised 5.4% expansion in the previous quarter, which had been the fastest pace of growth since Q4 2021.

欧洲股市周四开盘走高，投资者情绪在连续四天抛售后趋于稳定。然而，随着人工智能行业领导者英伟达公布的收益超过季度预期，但显示出增长放缓的迹象，人们仍持谨慎态度。投资者还将关注欧洲的一系列关键经济报告，包括欧元区的新车注册和法国的商业信心数据。当天没有安排重大收益发布。盘前交易中，欧洲斯托克50指数和斯托克600指数期货均上涨约0.4%。

European equity markets were set to open higher on Thursday, as investor sentiment stabilized following four consecutive days of selling. However, caution remained in the air as Nvidia, the AI industry leader, reported earnings that surpassed quarterly estimates but showed signs of slowing growth. Investors will also be focusing on a series of key economic reports from Europe, including new car registrations in the Eurozone and French business confidence data. There are no major earnings releases scheduled for the day. In premarket trade, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures were both up by around 0.4%.

2024年10月，英国公共部门净借款（不包括公共部门银行）从9月份向下修正的161.3亿英镑增加到173.5亿英镑，远高于123亿英镑的预测。自1993年1月开始有月度记录以来，10月份的借款额是第二高的。当前预算赤字为127亿英镑，是指为公共部门日常活动提供资金的借款，也是借款的一部分。应付债务利息为91亿英镑。中央政府的收入为812亿英镑，其中税收收入增加到613亿英镑，包括公司税、所得税和增值税。强制性社会缴款降至138亿英镑，主要是因为2024年初国家保险的主要费率降低。中央政府的总支出为885亿英镑。截至10月的财政年度借款为966亿英镑，是自1993年开始有月度记录以来截至10月借款的第三高财政年度。

Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks in the UK increased to £17.35 billion in October 2024 from a downwardly revised £16.13 billion in September and much higher than forecasts of £12.3 billion. Borrowing was the 2nd highest for an October month since monthly records began in January 1993. Current budget deficit which refers to borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities, and is part of borrowing, was £12.7 billion. Debt interest payable was £9.1 billion. Central government’s receipts were £81.2 billion, of which tax receipts increased to £61.3 billion, including Corporation Tax, Income Tax and VAT. Compulsory social contributions decreased to £13.8 billion, largely because of the reductions in the main rates of National Insurance in early 2024. Central government’s total expenditure was £88.5 billion. Borrowing in the financial year to October was £96.6 billion, the 3rd highest financial year-to-October borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

2024年第三季度，瑞典工业的产能占比为87.5%，而前三个月为88.4%。与去年同期相比，产能利用率下降了2.6个百分点，为90.1%。

Industries in Sweden operated at 87.5% percent of their production capacity in the third quarter of 2024 from 88.4 percent in the previous three-month period. Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, capacity utilization was 2.6 percentage points lower at 90.1 percent.

挪威大陆的国内生产总值（不包括主要以石油为基础的海上部门）在8月份下降0.1%后，2024年9月与上月相比没有增长。从4月至6月至7月至9月，连续三个月的增长率为0.5%。

The GDP for Mainland Norway, which excludes the largely petroleum-based offshore sector, showed no increase in September 2024 over the previous month, following a 0.1% fall in August. The rolling three-month growth was 0.5% from April-June to July-September.