韩国3月份消费者信心指数从之前的95.2降至93.4。韩国3月份消费者信心指数从之前的95.2降至93.4

South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 93.4 in March from previous 95.2.South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 93.4 in March from previous 95.2

英镑/日元价格预测：日元暴跌，飙升194.50。周一，英镑/日元上涨，突破193.00和194.00点，每日涨幅超过200点，因为日元在外汇领域仍然落后。在撰写本文时，交叉货币对上涨了1%以上，在从192.52的日低点反弹后，交易在194.70附近。

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Soars and claims 194.50 as JPY plunges.The GBP/JPY rallied on Monday, climbing past the 193.00 and 194.00 figures on an over 200 pip daily gain, as the Japanese Yen remains the laggard in the FX space. At the time of writing, the cross-pair post gains of over 1%, trading near the 194.70 area after bouncing off daily lows of 192.52.

高盛：油价下跌减缓非欧佩克+供应增长。高盛（Goldman Sachs）概述了油价下跌将如何在未来一年对非欧佩克+国家的产量增长产生重大影响。根据该银行的分析，当布伦特原油价格高于70美元时，每桶油价每下跌10美元，非欧佩克+国家的产量增长在12个月内可能会放缓约30万桶/天。

Goldman Sachs: Lower oil prices to slow non-OPEC+ supply growth.Goldman Sachs has outlined how falling oil prices could significantly impact non-OPEC+ production growth over the coming year. According to the bank's analysis, for every $10 per barrel decline in oil prices when Brent crude is above $70, non-OPEC+ output growth is likely to slow by approximately 0.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) over a 12-month period.

关税希望、乐观的中国和国内数据支撑澳元。澳元/美元周一小幅走高，在从上周的低点0.6260附近反弹后，该货币对向0.6300手柄靠拢。复苏是在美国时段出现的，因为人们对即将出台的美国关税政策、中国的支持性措施以及澳大利亚一系列可靠的采购经理人指数数据的潜在缓和持乐观态度。

Australian Dollar supported by tariff hopes, upbeat China and domestic data.The AUD/USD pair edged higher on Monday, with the pair moving closer to the 0.6300 handle after bouncing off last week's lows around 0.6260. The recovery came during the American session amid increased optimism over a potential moderation in upcoming US tariff policy, supportive Chinese measures, and a solid set of Australian PMI data.

天然气价格预测：重新测试50天均线，风险进一步下跌。天然气在50天均线测试了关键支撑位，看跌压力增加。跌破3.86美元的决定性突破可能会引发进一步下跌至3.52美元。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Retests 50-Day MA, Risks Further Decline.Natural gas tested key support at the 50-Day MA, with bearish pressure increasing. A decisive break below $3.86 could trigger a further decline toward $3.52.

周一，Ibovespa指数下跌0.8%，收于131321点，投资者在对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普即将出台的互惠关税和新兴国内财政信号的新担忧中保持谨慎立场。报道显示，特朗普预计将把某些行业排除在4月2日生效的关税之外，这可能会缓解一些贸易中断，但仍存在不确定性。在国内方面，财政部长费尔南多·哈达德表示对财政框架的运作充满信心，同时承认“调整机器”对于其持续有效是必要的。与此同时，央行Focus调查的分析师下调了对巴西通胀和经济增长的预测。大多数股票交易持平或处于负值区域，Ambev、JBS、Companhia Sanea、B3和Rede D'or等主要股票下跌了1.5%至2%。

The Ibovespa dipped 0.8% to close at 131,321 on Monday as investors maintained a cautious stance amid fresh concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming reciprocal tariffs and emerging domestic fiscal signals. Reports indicate that Trump is expected to exclude certain sectors from the tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd, which may mitigate some trade disruptions but still leaves uncertainty. On the domestic front, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, expressed confidence in the functioning of the fiscal framework while acknowledging that “adjustments to the machine” are necessary for its continued effectiveness. Meanwhile, analysts in the Central Bank’s Focus survey trimmed their forecasts for both inflation and economic growth in Brazil. Most equities traded flat or in negative territory, with major names like Ambev, JBS, Companhia Sanea, B3, and Rede D'Or, declining between 1.5% and 2%.

周一，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨1.3%，收于25304点，投资者对美国可能对即将到来的关税采取更温和、更有针对性的态度的迹象表示欢迎，这缓解了人们对可能损害加拿大经济的潜在破坏性贸易措施的担忧。这种乐观情绪在华尔街引起了反响，主要指数的大幅上涨推动了更广泛的市场反弹。在国内，大多数股票都是绿色的，科技和金融巨头表现突出，如RBC（1.9%）、Shopify（4.7%）、TD Bank（1.6%）、Brookfield（3.1%）和Constellation Software（2.2%）。尽管初步估计显示，继1月份增长1.7%之后，2月份加拿大制造业销售额环比下降0.2%，但总体市场前景仍受到贸易环境更加稳定的预期的提振。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index climbed 1.3% to close at 25,304 on Monday as investors welcomed indications that the U.S. is likely to adopt a more moderate, targeted approach to upcoming tariffs, easing concerns over potentially disruptive trade measures that could impair the Canadian economy. This optimism reverberated on Wall Street, where significant gains across major indices bolstered a broader market rally. Domestically, most stocks traded in the green, with standout performances from tech and financial giants such as RBC (1.9%), Shopify (4.7%), TD Bank (1.6%), Brookfield (3.1%), and Constellation Software (2.2%). Although preliminary estimates indicated that manufacturing sales in Canada fell by 0.2% month-over-month in February, following a 1.7% increase in January, the overall market outlook remains buoyed by the expectation of a more stable trade environment.

周一，美国股市飙升，因为人们越来越乐观地认为，特朗普政府可能会采取更有针对性的关税措施，从而缓解对全面贸易战的担忧。标准普尔500指数上涨1.8%，创两周新高，纳斯达克100指数上涨2.1%，道琼斯指数上涨597点。科技股领涨，英伟达和AMD分别上涨3.1%和7%，而特斯拉在连续几周下跌后飙升11.9%。亚马逊上涨3.6%，Alphabet上涨2.1%。报道显示，政府可能会在4月2日的推出中排除某些特定行业的关税，尽管官员们警告说，最终决定尚未做出。投资者欢迎在经济衰退担忧和消费者信心疲软导致市场波动数周后政策的潜在转变。与此同时，初步PMI显示服务业意外强劲增长，而制造业收缩，由于关税，投入成本飙升。

US stocks soared on Monday as optimism grew that the Trump administration may adopt a more targeted approach to tariffs, easing concerns of a full-blown trade war. The S&P 500 climbed 1.8% to a two-week high, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.1%, and the Dow Jones rose 597 points. Tech stocks led the gains, with Nvidia and AMD jumping 3.1% and 7%, respectively, while Tesla surged 11.9% after weeks of declines. Amazon gained 3.6% and Alphabet advanced by 2.1%. Reports indicated that the administration might exclude certain sector-specific tariffs from its April 2 rollout, though officials cautioned that final decisions had not yet been made. Investors welcomed the potential shift in policy after weeks of market volatility driven by recession fears and weak consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, preliminary PMIs showed unexpectedly strong growth in the services sector, while manufacturing contracted, with input costs spiking due to tariffs.

美元/日元价格预测：在美国收益率飙升的支撑下，清算150.00。周一，随着关税担忧消退和美国国债收益率飙升，美元/日元对飙升，自3月初以来首次突破150.00大关，推动主要货币突破0.81%。

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Clears 150.00 underpinned by US yields surge.The USD/JPY pair surged on Monday and climbed above the 150.00 mark for the first time since early March as tariff fears faded and US Treasury bond yields skyrocketed, pushing the major for over 0.81%.

周一，美国股市在进入最后一个交易小时时继续上涨，因为人们越来越乐观地认为特朗普政府可能会采取更有针对性的关税措施，从而缓解对全面贸易战的担忧。标准普尔500指数上涨1.6%，创两周新高，纳斯达克100指数上涨2%，道琼斯指数上涨550多点。科技股领涨，英伟达和AMD分别上涨3%和7%，而特斯拉在连续几周下跌后飙升10%。报道显示，政府可能会在4月2日的推出中排除某些特定行业的关税，尽管官员们警告说，最终决定尚未做出。最近几周，投资者对经济衰退的担忧和疲软的消费者情绪感到震惊，对政策的潜在转变做出了积极反应。在数据方面，初步PMI显示服务业意外强劲增长，而制造业出现意外下降，伴随着关税推动的投入成本急剧增加。

US Stocks continued their rally entering final trading hour on Monday as optimism grew that the Trump administration may adopt a more targeted approach to tariffs, easing concerns of a full-blown trade war.The S&P 500 climbed 1.6% to a two-week high, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 2%, and the Dow Jones rose over 550 points. Tech stocks led the gains, with Nvidia and AMD jumping over 3% and 7%, respectively, while Tesla surged 10% after weeks of declines. Reports indicated that the administration might exclude certain sector-specific tariffs from its April 2 rollout, though officials cautioned that final decisions had not yet been made. Investors, shaken in recent weeks by recession fears and weak consumer sentiment, reacted positively to the potential shift in policy. On the data side, preliminary PMIs indicated unexpectedly strong growth in the services sector, while manufacturing saw an unanticipated decline, accompanied by a sharp increase in input costs driven by tariffs.

天然气、WTI石油、布伦特原油预测——随着特朗普计划削减委内瑞拉出口，石油价格创下新高。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布计划对购买委内瑞拉石油的国家征收25%的关税。

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Tests New Highs As Trump Plans To Cut Venezuelan Exports.U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil.

美联储的谨慎态度和强劲的服务业数据使美元具有弹性。衡量美元对一篮子货币价值的美元指数（DXY）周一保持上涨势头，实现了四天的复苏。强劲的标准普尔服务业采购经理人指数以及亚特兰大联邦储备委员会主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克的谨慎态度使其受益。

US Dollar is resilient on Fed caution, strong service sector data.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, held its upward momentum on Monday, tallying a four-day recovery. Strong S&P Services PMI as well as caution from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic is benefiting the buck.

英国央行贝利再次呼吁采取联合行动解决贸易压力。英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利周一重申，他呼吁世界经济体之间进行合作，以解决全球贸易体系的紧张局势，该体系正面临美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政策的动荡。

BoE's Bailey calls again for joint action to address trade strains.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated on Monday his call for cooperation among the world's economies to resolve strains in the global trading system, which is facing upheaval from the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

萨尔瓦多报告称，2025年2月的贸易逆差为7.6459亿美元，与去年同月记录的7.71亿美元的缺口大致一致。出口同比增长8.82%，达到5.5135亿美元，主要原因是消费品，特别是糖（1288.8%）激增321.26%，非传统商品增长4.18%，而制成品出口下降53.09%（-20.49%）部分抵消了这些增长。与此同时，进口额增长3.02%，达到131594万美元。

El Salvador reported a trade deficit of USD 764.59 million in February 2025, broadly in line with the USD 771 million gap recorded in the same month the previous year. Exports rose by 8.82% year-over-year to USD 551.35 million, driven by a 321.26% surge in consumer goods, particularly sugar (1,288.8%), and a 4.18% increase in non-traditional goods, while a 53.09% decline in manufactured goods exports (-20.49%) partially offset these gains. Meanwhile, imports increased by 3.02% to USD 1,315.94 million.

DAX指数扭转了早盘涨势，周一收于22853点，交易员评估了欧洲主要经济体的一批商业活动数据，同时也在监测美国关税的发展。媒体报道称，即将到来的美国贸易关税将比最初预期的更有针对性，也不那么严厉。然而，唐纳德·特朗普总统今天宣布，他将很快对汽车、铝和药品征收关税。在数据方面，受近两年来制造业产量首次增长的推动，德国私营部门3月份的商业活动增长速度为10个月来最快。在股票中，拜耳下跌了约6.9%，成为最大的落后者，此前佐治亚州的一个陪审团命令该公司在一宗关于其农达除草剂的案件中支付近21亿美元。拜尔斯多夫和沃诺维亚也面临着巨大的损失。英飞凌科技和德意志银行表现最佳，分别上涨3.3%和2.6%。

The DAX reversed early gains to close slightly down at 22,853 on Monday, as traders assessed a batch of business activity data from major European economies while also monitoring developments on US tariffs. Media reports suggested that upcoming US trade tariffs would be more targeted and less severe than initially expected. However, President Donald Trump announced today that he would soon impose duties on autos, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals. On the data front, Germany's private sector saw its fastest growth in business activity in ten months in March, driven by the first increase in manufacturing production in almost two years. Among stocks, Bayer dropped around 6.9%, becoming the biggest laggard after a Georgia jury ordered the company to pay nearly $2.1 billion in a case regarding its Roundup weed killer. Beiersdorf and Vonovia also faced steep losses. Infineon Technologies and Deutsche Bank were the top performers, rising 3.3% and 2.6%, respectively.