美国堪萨斯联邦储备银行6月份制造业活动从之前的-10上升至5。美国堪萨斯联邦储备银行6月份制造业活动从之前的-10上升至5

United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity up to 5 in June from previous -10.United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity up to 5 in June from previous -10

美联储的戴利：我们可以在秋季调整利率。旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利表示，她观察到越来越多的迹象表明，关税可能不会导致通胀大幅或长期上升，这可能会支持秋季降息的论点。

Fed's Daly: We would be able to adjust rates in the fall.Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, indicated that she is observing growing signs that tariffs might not result in a significant or prolonged inflation increase, which could support the argument for a rate cut in the fall.

尽管有战争，原油价格仍下跌——TDS。具有讽刺意味的是，由于战争，原油的底价可能已经下跌。只要战线保持目前的状态，无论停火是否持续，原油的下行压力都会增加：TDS的高级商品策略师Daniel Ghali指出，相互保证的经济破坏似乎不太可能发生。

Crude Oil floor drops despite war – TDS.Ironically, the floor price in crude Oil has likely declined as a result of the war. As long as the battle lines remain as currently drawn, downside pressures in crude Oil will grow regardless of whether the ceasefire holds or not: mutually assured economic destruction appears unlikely, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

美联储的戴利坚持降息观点，称政策处于良好状态。

Fed's Daly sticks to fall cut view, says policy in good place.

周四，Ibovespa指数上涨0.7%，徘徊在13.6万点之上，在巴西国会批准了一项取消政府IOF增税的法案后，表现优于其他主要的全球股市基准。税收法案的宣布此前引发了股票和雷亚尔的暴跌，通过征收外汇购买来限制资本外流，并为巴西预算赤字的上调提供资金。与此同时，最新数据显示，截至6月中旬，整体通胀率降至5.27%，略低于市场预期的5.31%，以缓解人们对央行可能将其最终基准利率维持在15%的担忧。淡水河谷股价上涨2.5%，此前最新数据显示，向中国出口的铁量增加，而巴西国家石油公司在购买1750万桶石油后股价上涨。钢铁制造商CSN（+2.1%）和Gerdau（+1%），以及零售商Americanas（+2.5%）和Magazine Luiza（+2.6%）也上涨。

The Ibovespa rose 0.7% to hover above the 136,000 mark on Thursday, outperforming other major global equity benchmarks after the Brazilian Congress approved a bill nullifying the government’s IOF tax hike. The announcement of the tax bill had previously triggered a plunge in equities and the real, levying purchases of foreign exchange to limit capital outflows and finance upward revisions to the Brazilian budget deficit. In the meantime, fresh data showed that headline inflation slowed to 5.27% halfway through June, slightly under market expectations of 5.31%, to soften concerns that the central bank may hold its terminal Selic rate of 15% as long as feared. Vale shares rose 2.5% after fresh data showed higher shipments of iron to China, while Petrobras traded higher after it purchased 17.5 million barrels of oil. Steelmakers CSN (+2.1%) and Gerdau (+1%), along with retailers Americanas (+2.5%) and Magazine Luiza (+2.6%), also advanced.

美联储的Barkin：通胀压力可能上升，没有削减的紧迫性。

Fed's Barkin: Inflation pressure likely to rise, no urgency to cut.

继4月份下降2.3%之后，预计2025年5月加拿大批发销售额将环比下降0.4%。预计下降的主要原因是机械、设备和用品子行业的销售疲软。

Canada’s wholesale sales are projected to fall 0.4% month-over-month in May 2025, following a 2.3% drop in April. The anticipated decline is mainly driven by weaker sales in the machinery, equipment, and supplies subsector.

澳元兑美元上涨至32周高点0.66。过去4周，澳元兑美元上涨1.68%，过去12个月下跌1.48%。

AUDUSD increased to a 32-week high of 0.66. Over the past 4 weeks, Australian Dollar US Dollar gained 1.68%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.48%.

天然气新闻：图表显示跌幅更大——市场等待储量分析。随着价格跌破200天移动平均线，看跌势头增强。库存问题和温和的天气对今天的天然气造成了压力。

Natural Gas News: Chart Signals Deeper Drop—Market Awaits Storage Analysis.With prices breaking below the 200-day moving average, bearish momentum strengthens. Inventory concerns and milder weather weigh on natural gas today.

2025年4月，美国待售房屋销售额较上月增长1.8%，弥补了上月6.3%的跌幅，与市场预期的0.3%的跌幅形成鲜明对比。反弹在全国范围内广泛分布，以西部（6%）和东北部（2.1%）为首，而南部（1%）和中西部（0.3%）的增长不太明显。NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示：“持续的就业增长和工资上涨正在适度帮助房地产市场。”。“小时工资的增长速度快于房价。然而，抵押贷款利率波动是购房决策的主要驱动力，对住房负担能力的影响大于工资增长。”

Pending home sales in the United States rose by 1.8% from the previous month in April of 2025, trimming the 6.3% drop in the previous month and contrasting with market expectations of a 0.3% drop. The rebound was broadly distributed through the whole country, led by the West (6%) and the Northeast (2.1%), while growth was less pronounced in the South (1%) and the Midwest (0.3%). "Consistent job gains and rising wages are modestly helping the housing market," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Hourly wages are increasing faster than home prices. However, mortgage rate fluctuations are the primary driver of homebuying decisions and impact housing affordability more than wage gains."

大米价格跌至13.10美元/英担的4周低点。在过去的4周里，Rice下跌了1.24%，在过去的12个月里，它下跌了21.49%。

Rice decreased to a 4-week low of 13.10 USD/cwt. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice lost 1.24%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.49%.

糖下降到15.58美元/磅的4年低点。在过去的4周里，糖下降了9.56%，在过去的12个月里，它下降了22.37%。

Sugar decreased to a 4-year low of 15.58 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 9.56%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 22.37%.

木材价格上涨至634.00美元/1000板英尺的12周高点。在过去的4周里，Lumber上涨了4.46%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了34.6%。

Lumber increased to a 12-week high of 634.00 USD/1000 board feet. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber gained 4.46%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 34.6%.

周四，在温和的全球货币信号和大宗商品价格走强的支撑下，资源和利率敏感行业普遍复苏，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数在26570点的小幅涨跌之间波动。贱金属矿商领涨，泰克资源、艾芬豪矿业和第一量子各上涨3%以上，此前由于美国关税担忧和中国刺激计划的希望，铜期货攀升至三个月高点，而Cenovus和加拿大自然等能源股在原油温和反弹的同时复苏。与此同时，重量级金融股也在积极区间内稳健交易。相反，科技巨头Shopify下跌超过4%，大致抵消了多伦多交易所的势头。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index swung between small gains and losses at the 26 570 level on Thursday, on the back of a broad resurgence in resource and interest-rate sensitive sectors, underpinned by dovish global monetary signals and firmer commodity prices. Base metal miners led the advance with Teck Resources, Ivanhoe Mines, and First Quantum adding over 3% each after copper futures climbed to three-month highs on US tariff concerns and Chinese stimulus hopes, while energy stocks like Cenovus and Canadian Natural recovered alongside a modest rebound in crude. At the same time heavyweight financials also traded firmly in positive territory. Conversely, technology mega-cap Shopify shedded over 4%, broadly offsetting the Toronto exchange’s momentum.

2025年第一季度，纳米比亚经济同比增长2.7%，为2021年第一季度以来的最低增速，较2024年第四季度上调的3.6%有所放缓。经济放缓主要归因于第二产业的收缩，特别是制造业（-1.7%）。受农业和林业（-20.1%）以及船上渔业和鱼类加工（-8.7%）大幅下降的推动，第一产业的增长也放缓。与此同时，第三产业仍然是增长的主要驱动力，这得益于健康（+11.4%）、批发和零售贸易（+6.5%）、金融服务活动（+6.0%）以及行政和支持服务（+5.7%）的强劲表现。经季节性调整的季度基础上，2025年第一季度GDP收缩3.2%，此前一季度修订后增长8.1%。

The economy of Namibia grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the slowest expansion since Q1 2021, easing from an upwardly revised 3.6% in Q4 2024. The slowdown was mainly attributed to a contraction in secondary industries, particularly in manufacturing (-1.7%). Growth also decelerated in primary industries, driven by sharp declines in agriculture and forestry (-20.1%) and fishing and fish processing on board (-8.7%). Meanwhile, tertiary industries remained the key driver of growth, supported by strong performances in health (+11.4%), wholesale and retail trade (+6.5%), financial services activities (+6.0%), and administrative and support services (+5.7%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP contracted by 3.2% in Q1 2025, following a revised 8.1% expansion in the previous quarter.