美联储是否即将犯下另一个政策错误？。自NFP报告低于预期以来，美联储成员开始排队等待9月份的降息。总体而言，仅从反应来看，数据并不像人们想象的那么糟糕，但鉴于我们为一份强劲的报告做好了准备，而且在美联储做出决定后，定价变得更加鹰派，疲软的数据足以引发快速重新定价。

Is the Fed about to make another policy mistake?.Since the softer than expected NFP report, Fed members started to line up for a September cut. Overall, the data wasn't as bad as one might think by just looking at the reaction but given that we were positioned for a strong report and the pricing got more hawkish after the Fed's decision, the weaker data was enough to trigger a quick repricing.

PMI小姐后，美元感受到压力！。美元走低，服务业采购经理人指数大幅下跌，导致价格下跌。另一方面，随着3400美元的水平即将到来，黄金有望再次上涨。

Dollar Feels the Pressure After PMI Miss!.The dollar moved lower as a heavy miss in the Services PMI saw price action fall. On the flip side, gold looks for another spring higher as the $3400 level is in sight.

英镑在英国央行会议前上涨，“渐进和谨慎”的指导受到审查。周四，英镑兑疲软的美元汇率上涨，市场关注英格兰银行是否会在当天晚些时候举行的会议上就政策宽松的步伐保持“渐进和谨慎”的措辞。

Sterling rises before BoE meet, 'gradual and careful' guidance under scrutiny.Sterling rose against a weakening dollar on Thursday with the markets watching whether the Bank of England will maintain its “gradual and careful” language on the pace of policy easing at its meeting due later in the day.

First Light News：关税已站稳脚跟；英国央行准备降息。英国央行（BoE）将于格林尼治标准时间上午11:00成为焦点。我相信你也知道，预计央行将把银行利率下调25个基点。

First Light News: Tariffs Take Hold; BoE Poised to Cut Rates.The Bank of England (BoE) takes centre stage today at 11:00 am GMT. As I am sure you are aware, the central bank is forecast to reduce the bank rate by 25 basis points (bps).

日本在美国关税拖累和消费活动疲软的情况下大幅下调增长预测。日本政府已将本财年的GDP增长预测下调至0.7%，低于1月份预测的1.2%。这是因为美国的关税可能会影响日本公司对资本支出的胃口，因为对美国的出口将受到重大打击。

Japan slashes growth forecast amid drag from US tariffs, feeble consumption activity.The Japanese government has moved to cut its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 0.7%, down from the 1.2% estimate projected back in January. This comes as US tariffs could weigh on Japanese firms' appetite on capital expenditure as exports to the US will take a significant hit.

周三，恒生指数上涨171点，涨幅0.7%，收于25082点，扭转了早盘的跌势，所有板块均以绿色收盘。这是第四个交易日的上涨，得益于中国乐观的贸易数据。由于前期装运，7月份出口加速，而在北京的持续政策支持下，进口出现了一年来最强劲的增长。交易员们仍然关注8月12日的最后期限，关注美中关税谈判的进展。尽管特朗普表示美国可能对某些芯片进口征收100%的关税，但科技股小幅上涨。分析师表示，这一结果可能会在短期内提振国内生产，但影响有限。美国期货微涨，因越来越多的人押注美联储将在9月试探性降息。新世界开发公司股价飙升10.2%，因有报道称可能进行私有化交易。其他显著上涨的股票包括金沙中国（5.0%）、银河娱乐（3.4%）和华润置地（3.2%）。投资者现在正在等待周六公布的中国7月份CPI和PPI。

The Hang Seng rose 171 points or 0.7% to close at 25,082 on Wednesday, reversing early losses as all sectors ended in the green. It was the fourth session of gains, helped by upbeat Chinese trade data. Exports accelerated in July due to front-loaded shipments, while imports saw the strongest growth in a year amid continued policy support from Beijing. Traders remained focused on the August 12 deadline, watching for progress in U.S.-China tariff negotiations. Tech shares posted modest gains despite Trump’s remarks that the U.S. may impose 100% tariffs on certain chip imports—an outcome analysts say could boost domestic production with limited short-term impact. U.S. futures edged higher on growing bets of a tentative Fed rate cut in September. New World Dev. surged 10.2% on reports of a potential take-private deal. Other notable gainers included Sands China (5.0%), Galaxy Entertainment (3.4%), and China Resources Land (3.2%). Investors now await China’s July CPI and PPI due Saturday.

俄罗斯表示，特朗普-普京峰会的筹备工作已经在进行中。据说地点已经商定，但稍后才会公布。提醒一下，这一切都是为了推动停火谈判。

Russia says that preparations for a Trump-Putin summit are already underway.The venue is said to be agreed upon but will only be announced later. As a reminder, this is all in trying to push for ceasefire talks.

卢比坚持干预预期，对美国新关税不屑一顾。交易员表示，印度卢比周四基本保持不变，顶住了美国额外关税的压力，因为对央行干预的预期支撑了亚洲货币。

Rupee holds firm on intervention expectations, shrugs off fresh US tariffs.The Indian rupee was largely unchanged on Thursday, defying pressure from additional U.S. tariffs as expectations of central bank intervention supported the Asian currency, traders said.

2025年6月，法国的经常账户赤字从上个月向下修正的26亿欧元扩大到34亿欧元。商品账户缺口从5月份的66亿欧元增至74亿欧元，而服务账户盈余从57亿欧元小幅降至55亿欧元。与此同时，2025年6月，初级收入盈余从上个月的27.9亿欧元增至29.1亿欧元，次级收入缺口保持不变，为44亿欧元。

France's current account deficit widened to EUR 3.4 billion in June 2025, from a downwardly revised EUR 2.6 billion in the previous month. The goods account shortfall increased to EUR 7.4 billion from EUR 6.6 billion in May, while the services account surplus edged down to EUR 5.5 billion from EUR 5.7 billion. Meanwhile, the primary income surplus rose to EUR 2.91 billion in June 2025 from EUR 2.79 billion in the preceding month, and the secondary income shortfall remained unchanged at EUR 4.4 billion.

BE20指数升至4703.00点，为2007年6月以来的最高点。在过去的4周里，比利时股市指数（BE20）上涨了4.86%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了17.25%。

BE20 increased to 4703.00 Index Points, the highest since June 2007. Over the past 4 weeks, Belgium Stock Market Index (BE20) gained 4.86%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 17.25%.

周四，富时MIB指数在41000点附近几乎持平，停止了三天的上涨，因为投资者仍专注于企业盈利和贸易发展。美国针对几乎所有主要贸易伙伴的互惠关税于今天生效，欧盟目前面临15%的关税税率。在企业方面，Interpump Group在报告第二季度核心利润同比增长6%后，上涨了4%以上。忠利集团也上涨了0.5%，此前该公司公布了2025年上半年正常化净利润增长10.4%，达到22.4亿欧元。其他显著上涨的股票包括普睿司曼、Banca Mediolanum和Unipol Gruppo，涨幅均在1%至2%之间。不利的一面是，在美国总统特朗普宣布对进口半导体和芯片征收100%关税后，意法半导体股价下跌近2%，不包括在美国境内生产的公司。

The FTSE MIB was nearly flat around 41,000 on Thursday, halting a three-day gain, as investors remained focused on corporate earnings and trade developments. The US reciprocal tariffs, targeting nearly all major trading partners, took effect today, with the European Union now facing a 15% tariff rate. On the corporate front, Interpump Group advanced more than 4% after reporting a 6% year-on-year increase in second-quarter core profit. Generali also rose 0.5% after posting a 10.4% gain in normalized net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching €2.24 billion. Other notable gainers included Prysmian, Banca Mediolanum, and Unipol Gruppo, all rising between 1% and over 2%. On the downside, STMicroelectronics fell nearly 2% after US President Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors and chips, excluding companies that manufacture within the US.

2025年6月，捷克共和国的零售额同比增长4.5%，略低于上个月下调后的4.6%，也低于市场预期的5.0%。汽车燃料（11.3%对5月份的13.3%）和非食品（5.5%对6.6%）的销售活动增长缓慢。与此同时，食品、饮料和烟草的销售额有所回升（0.8%对-0.8%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，6月份零售贸易增长0.3%，从前一个月0.5%的跌幅反弹。

Retail sales in the Czech Republic rose by 4.5% year-on-year in June 2025, easing slightly from a downwardly revised 4.6% gain in the previous month and below market expectations of 5.0%. Sales activity rose at a softer pace for automotive fuel (11.3% vs 13.3% in May), and non-food products (5.5% vs 6.6%). Meanwhile, sales recovered for food, beverages and tobacco (0.8% vs -0.8%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade rose 0.3% in June, rebounding from a 0.5% drop in the previous month.

CAC 40指数周四微涨至7652点左右，延续了前一交易日的小幅涨幅，因为最新一轮美国关税于今日生效。互惠关税针对包括欧盟在内的数十个贸易伙伴，欧盟目前面临15%的关税。在国内经济方面，2025年6月法国的贸易逆差为76亿欧元，与5月份的八个月高点持平，略高于预期的75亿欧元。出口环比增长3.4%，达到506亿欧元，在美国对欧盟商品关税不断变化的情况下，对华盛顿的出口显著增长6.3%。与此同时，进口增速放缓，比上月增长2.9%，达到583亿欧元。在个股中，安赛乐米塔尔以4.3%的涨幅领涨CAC 40指数，其次是雅高，上涨2.6%，Edenred上涨1.2%。不利的一面是，意法半导体表现最差，在特朗普总统宣布对进口半导体芯片征收100%关税后下跌1.8%。

The CAC 40 edged higher to trade around 7,652 on Thursday, extending modest gains from the previous session, as the latest round of US tariffs took effect today. The reciprocal tariffs targeted dozens of trade partners, including the European Union, which now faces a 15% tariff rate. On the domestic economic front, France's trade deficit stood at €7.6 billion in June 2025 — matching May’s eight-month high and slightly exceeding the expected of €7.5 billion. Exports rose by 3.4% month-over-month to €50.6 billion, with a notable 6.3% increase in shipments to the Washington amid the evolving US tariffs on EU goods. Meanwhile, imports rose at a slower pace, up 2.9% from the previous month, to €58.3 billion. Among individual stocks, ArcelorMittal led the CAC 40 with a 4.3% gain, followed by Accor, which added 2.6%, and Edenred, up 1.2%. On the downside, STMicroelectronics was the worst performer, falling 1.8% after President Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor chips.

法兰克福DAX指数周四开盘小幅上涨，但在美国新征收的关税生效和企业盈利成为焦点后，稳定在23930点附近。目前生效的“互惠”措施几乎针对所有主要贸易伙伴，包括面临15%税率的欧盟。德国依赖出口的经济正面临美国关税带来的越来越大的压力。最新数据显示，2025年6月，贸易顺差收窄超过预期，工业生产降至2020年以来的最低水平，工厂订单连续第二个月出现意外下降。在业务方面，安联因盈利超过预期而上涨3.6%，汉高在上调利润预期后上涨2.5%。西门子股价持平，业绩令人失望，而德国电信股价下跌超过5%，莱茵金属股价下跌超过6%，低于预期。

Frankfurt’s DAX edged higher at the open on Thursday but leveled off near 23,930 as newly imposed US tariffs came into force and corporate earnings took center stage. The "reciprocal" measures, now in effect, target nearly all major trading partners, including the European Union, which faces a 15% rate. Germany’s export-reliant economy is under growing pressure from US tariffs. In June 2025, the trade surplus narrowed more than expected, industrial production fell to its lowest level since 2020, and factory orders posted a surprise second consecutive monthly decline, according to the latest data. On the business front, Allianz gained 3.6% on an earnings beat, and Henkel rose 2.5% after lifting its profit forecast. Siemens was flat as results disappointed, while Deutsche Telekom fell over 5% and Rheinmetall lost more than 6% on weaker-than-expected figures.

由于进口增加而出口下降，奥地利的贸易逆差从去年同期的4亿欧元扩大到2025年5月的7.6亿欧元。进口同比增长0.9%，达到159.3亿欧元，主要原因是化学产品增长6.8%，加工产品增长0.9%，抵消了燃料和能源18.1%的下滑。非欧盟国家的进口增长了3.0%，但欧盟国家的出口下降了0.2%。与此同时，出口下降1.6%，至151.7亿欧元，主要原因是燃料和能源出货量下降（-19.5%），其次是化工产品（-9.2%）。对非欧盟国家的出口下降（-9.9%），而对欧盟国家的出货量增加（+2.5%）。

Austria’s trade deficit widened to EUR 0.76 billion in May 2025, from EUR 0.40 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year, as imports rose while exports declined. Imports increased by 0.9% year-on-year to EUR 15.93 billion, driven primarily by a 6.8% increase in chemical products and a 0.9% rise in processed goods, which more than offset an 18.1% slump in fuels and energy. Imports grew for non-EU countries (+3.0%), but declined for EU countries by (-0.2%). Meanwhile, exports fell by 1.6% to EUR 15.17 billion, mainly due to lower shipments of fuels and energy (-19.5%), followed by chemical products (-9.2%). Exports decreased to non-EU countries (-9.9%), while shipments increased to EU countries (+2.5%).