2026年欧元展望。随着市场重新调整美联储的政策预期和相对增长前景，欧元/美元在2025年的支出锁定在广泛而波动的范围内。展望2026年，基本面、资本流动和全球不确定性仍倾向于美元支撑。

Euro Outlook for 2026.EUR/USD spent 2025 locked in a wide, choppy range as markets recalibrated Fed policy expectations and relative growth prospects. Looking into 2026, fundamentals, capital flows, and global uncertainty still lean toward US dollar support.

美国7年期国债拍卖：3.93%对3.781%。美国7年期国债拍卖：3.93%对3.781%

United States 7-Year Note Auction: 3.93% vs 3.781%.United States 7-Year Note Auction: 3.93% vs 3.781%

美联储面临动荡的2026年，而欧洲央行发出长期持有信号。美联储在2026年面临领导层风险、数据不确定性和更广泛的利率结果，而欧洲央行则表示政策将长期稳定。

Fed Faces a Volatile 2026 While ECB Signals a Long Hold.The Fed heads into 2026 facing leadership risk, data uncertainty, and wider rate outcomes, while the ECB signals an extended period of policy stability.

天然气新闻：天气风险降温，假期前交易清淡，期货价格漂移。2月天然气期货在节前交易清淡的情况下有所缓解，因为天气的不确定性和强劲的供应使交易员在关键支撑附近保持谨慎。

Natural Gas News: Futures Drift in Thin Pre-Holiday Trade as Weather Risks Cool.February natural gas futures ease in thin pre-holiday trade as weather uncertainty and strong supply keep traders cautious near key support.

美国4周期票据拍卖从之前的3.58%降至3.57%。美国4周期票据拍卖从之前的3.58%降至3.57%

United States 4-Week Bill Auction declined to 3.57% from previous 3.58%.United States 4-Week Bill Auction declined to 3.57% from previous 3.58%

11月俄罗斯工业产出比预测（1.2%）低-0.7%。11月俄罗斯工业产出比预测（1.2%）低-0.7%

Russia Industrial Output came in at -0.7% below forecasts (1.2%) in November.Russia Industrial Output came in at -0.7% below forecasts (1.2%) in November

天然气价格展望——天然气继续看到支持者。最终，我确实认为我们会回到5美元的水平，我只是不知道需要多长时间。这可能会非常突然，可能会更加艰难，但无论如何，我确实认为这会吸引价格。

Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to See Supporters.Ultimately, I do think we get back to the $5 level, I just don't know how long it takes. It could be very sudden, it could be more of a grind, but either way, I do think that's a magnet for price.

像NFP和FOMC利率决定这样的事件风险在2025年失去了严重的吸引力。在过去的一年里，出现了很多意外，从尽管发生了贸易战，但官方没有陷入衰退，到发达国家迅速稳定了鸽派政策制度，再到全球体系中日益严重的财政问题引发的担忧加剧。然而，从交易员的角度来看，更令人惊讶的是，相对于利率决策、就业报告和涉及关键主题的新闻等重大事件风险，市场的反应有所下降。

Event Risk Like NFPs and the FOMC Rate Decision Lost Serious Traction in 2025.There were plenty of surprises over the past year ranging from the avoidance of official recession despite a trade war, a fast levelling out of a dovish policy regime across the developed world and riding through amplified concerns around the growing fiscal issues in the global system. However, from a trader's perspective, the bigger surprise was the drop in responsiveness from the markets relative to major event risk such as rate decisions, employment reports and news that tapped into key themes.

原油价格展望——原油继续测试阻力。我认为，疲惫的迹象是销售机会，但也要记住，销量会有点问题。

Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Continues to Test Resistance.Signs of exhaustion I think, are selling opportunities, but also keep in mind that volume is going to be a little bit of a problem.

石油新闻：原油期货测试50天平均值，因为委内瑞拉的中断影响了石油前景。由于美国经济增长、委内瑞拉紧张局势和库存增加影响了交易员的短期前景，原油期货在50天平均水平上停滞不前。

Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Test 50-Day Average as Venezuela Disruptions Shape Oil Outlook.Crude oil futures stall at the 50-day average as U.S. growth, Venezuela tensions, and rising inventories shape the short-term outlook for traders.

随着市场接近年底，美元艰难复苏，澳元和新西兰元保持领先地位。美元在美国早盘小幅上涨，此前每周失业救济申请人数好于预期，这简要提醒人们，美国劳动力市场状况仍然相对有弹性。然而，反应受到了抑制，美元未能产生有意义的后续行动。

Dollar Struggles to Recover as Markets Drift Toward Year-End, Aussie and Kiwi Stay in Front.Dollar found a modest bid early in the U.S. session after weekly jobless claims came in better than expected, offering a brief reminder that U.S. labor market conditions remain relatively resilient. The reaction, however, was restrained, and the greenback failed to generate meaningful follow-through.

美国首次申请失业救济人数降至21.4万，而预期为22.5万。截至12月20日的一周，美国首次申请失业救济人数下降了1万至21.4万，低于预期的22.5万。首次申请失业救济的四周移动平均数下降了-750至217.5k。

US initial jobless claims fall to 214k vs exp 225k.US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 214k in the week ending December 20, below expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 217.5k.

WTI价格预测：势头有所改善，但下行风险仍徘徊在60美元以下。WTI价格预测：势头有所改善，但下行风险仍徘徊在60美元以下

WTI Price Forecast: Momentum improves, but downside risks linger below $60.WTI Price Forecast: Momentum improves, but downside risks linger below $60

美国首次申请失业救济人数为21.4万，而估计为22.5万。。首次申请失业救济人数追踪了每周首次申请失业福利的美国人人数，是美国劳动力市场健康状况和整体经济势头的最及时指标之一。索赔人数增加可能表明失业人数增加和经济放缓，而索赔人数下降则表明招聘人数超过了裁员人数，这表明潜在的经济实力。

US initial jobless claims 214K vs estimate of 225K estimate..Initial jobless claims track the weekly number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and are one of the most timely indicators of U.S. labor-market health and overall economic momentum. Rising claims can signal increasing job losses and a slowing economy, while declining claims suggest that hiring is outpacing layoffs, pointing to underlying economic strength.

英镑/日元价格预测：超买信号暗示暂停。英镑/日元价格预测：超买信号暗示暂停

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Overbought signals hint at a pause.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Overbought signals hint at a pause