奥地利第一季度国内生产总值（QoQ）从之前的0.2%降至0.1%。奥地利第一季度国内生产总值（QoQ）从之前的0.2%降至0.1%

Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) declined to 0.1% in 1Q from previous 0.2%.Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) declined to 0.1% in 1Q from previous 0.2%

奥地利3月份贸易差额从之前的4490万欧元降至-88.81亿欧元。奥地利3月份贸易差额从之前的4490万欧元降至-88.81亿欧元

Austria Trade Balance down to €-888.1M in March from previous €44.9M.Austria Trade Balance down to €-888.1M in March from previous €44.9M

瑞士外汇储备：704B（5月）vs 703B。瑞士外汇储备：704B（5月）vs 703B

Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 704B (May) vs 703B.Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 704B (May) vs 703B

法国4月份进口额，欧元从之前的587.99亿欧元降至572.25亿欧元。法国4月份进口额，欧元从之前的587.99亿欧元降至572.25亿欧元

France Imports, EUR declined to €57.225B in April from previous €58.799B.France Imports, EUR declined to €57.225B in April from previous €58.799B

4月份法国工业产出（月环比）比预测（0.3%）低-1.4%。4月份法国工业产出（月环比）比预测（0.3%）低-1.4%

France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (0.3%) in April.France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (0.3%) in April

美国的薪资水平将有可能决定收益率和美元的短期走势。正如预期的那样，欧洲央行将存款利率再下调25个基点至2.0%。市场面临的问题比以往任何时候都更重要，那就是接下来会发生什么。

US Payrolls Will Have Potential to Decide on Short-Term Momentum Both in Yields and Dollar.As expected, the ECB cut its depo rate by another 25 bps to 2.0%. More than ever, the question for markets was what to expect next.

美国就业报告结束了充满事件的一周。在美国，5月就业报告将结束多事之秋。我们预计非农就业人数将增加13万人，平均小时收入将增长0.3%，失业率将稳定在4.2%，与普遍预期一致。

US Jobs Report Concludes an Eventful Week.In the US, the May Jobs Report is set to conclude an eventful week. We forecast nonfarm payrolls to increase by 130k, average hourly earnings rising at 0.3% m/m SA, and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.2%, aligning well with consensus.

欧洲央行的西姆库斯：利率目前处于中性。利率目前处于中性水平。保持完全的灵活性很重要。

ECB's Simkus: Interest rates are now at neutral.Interest rates are now at neutral. Important to keep full flexibility.

2025年5月，美国非农就业人数可能增加13万人，为三个月来最小增幅，较4月份的17.7万人有所放缓。招聘放缓之际，围绕关税政策的不确定性增加，这可能会抑制就业增长，尽管现阶段预计不会出现大规模裁员。按行业划分，贸易和运输业的就业可能会停滞不前，此前由于预期贸易中断而提前招聘。与此同时，失业率预计将稳定在4.2%，而年工资增长预计将小幅下降至3.7%。适度的下行意外不太可能改变美联储目前的政策立场，因为政策制定者正在应对持续的贸易不确定性和特朗普总统要求降低利率的持续压力。

US nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 130,000 in May 2025, marking the smallest gain in three months and a slowdown from April’s 177,000. The moderation in hiring comes amid elevated uncertainty surrounding tariff policy, which may be dampening job growth—though widespread layoffs are not expected at this stage. By sector, employment in trade and transportation likely stalled, following prior front-loading of hiring in anticipation of trade disruptions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, while annual wage growth is expected to have edged down slightly to 3.7%. A modest downside surprise is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s current policy stance, as policymakers navigate ongoing trade-related uncertainty and continued pressure from President Trump for lower interest rates.

欧元/日元价格预测：攀升至164.00s中期以上，多头保持对近几周高点的控制。周五，欧元/日元交叉盘连续第二天吸引了一些后续买入，并在164.00年代中期附近进入欧洲交易时段。现货价格仍接近周四触及的三周高点，并受到日元（JPY）普遍走弱的良好支撑。

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs above mid-164.00s, bulls retain control near multi-week top.The EUR/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day on Friday and trades near the mid-164.00s heading into the European session. Spot prices remain close to over a three-week high touched on Thursday and remain well supported by a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY).

2025年4月，挪威制造业产量环比增长2.8%，从前一个月的持平增长中反弹。这标志着自去年12月以来工业活动的最大增幅，这得益于几个关键行业的产出增加：炼油、化工和制药（3.4%对2.1%）；有色金属（3.2%对1.3%）；机械设备（1.4%对0.3%）；船舶、船只和石油平台（8.7%对0.1%）。此外，食品、饮料和烟草（2.7%对-0.3%）、印刷和复制（4.7%对-0.7%）以及计算机和电气设备（3.5%对-2.9%）的产出有所恢复。按年计算，制造业产出飙升10.3%，创历史新高，比3月份的0.2%增长大幅加速。

Norway’s manufacturing production rose by 2.8% month-on-month in April 2025, rebounding from flat growth in the previous month. This marked the sharpest increase in industrial activity since last December, driven by higher output in several key sectors: refined petroleum, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals (3.4% vs 2.1%); non-ferrous metals (3.2% vs 1.3%); machinery and equipment (1.4% vs 0.3%); and ships, boats, and oil platforms (8.7% vs 0.1%). Additionally, output recovered in food, beverages, and tobacco (2.7% vs -0.3%), printing and reproduction (4.7% vs -0.7%), and computer and electrical equipment (3.5% vs -2.9%). On a yearly basis, manufacturing output surged 10.3%—the highest on record—accelerating sharply from a 0.2% increase in March.

2025年4月，德国出口环比下降1.7%，至1311亿欧元的三个月低点，扭转了上个月向上修正的1.2%的增长，降幅低于市场预测的0.5%。下降的主要原因是对美国、中国和英国的销售额下降。对这些主要市场以外的非欧盟国家的出口收缩了4.8%，主要原因是特朗普政府征收的关税抑制了对美国的出口下降了10.5%。对中国和英国的出货量也分别下降了5.9%和2.1%。相比之下，对欧盟的出口增长了0.9%，对欧元区的出口增长0.5%，对非欧元区欧盟国家的出口增长1.8%。

Exports from Germany fell by 1.7% month-over-month to a three-month low of EUR 131.1 billion in April 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 1.2% gain in the previous month and coming in worse than market forecasts of a 0.5% decline. The drop was mainly due to lower sales to the US, China, and the UK. Exports to non-EU countries outside these major markets contracted by 4.8%, driven primarily by a 10.5% plunge in shipments to the U.S., dampened by tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. Shipments to China and the UK also declined, by 5.9% and 2.1%, respectively. By contrast, exports to the European Union rose by 0.9%, with shipments to the Euro area up 0.5% and those to non-Euro area EU countries increasing by 1.8%.

2025年4月，丹麦制造业产量环比增长2%，从前一个月3.2%的下降反弹。复苏主要得益于机械（3月份为25.7%对-13.9%）、电气设备（11.7%对-3.7%）和运输设备（4.2%对-6.7%）的强劲反弹。此外，电子元件（8.3%对1.5%）和木材、纸制品和印刷（0.8%对0.2%）的产量继续增长。与此同时，基本金属和金属制品（-3.4%对2.9%）和药品（-5.3%对-3.8%）的活动有所下降。在非季节性调整的年度基础上，4月份制造业产出下降了15.4%，而前一时期下降了2.5%。

Denmark’s manufacturing production rose by 2% month-over-month in April 2025, rebounding from a 3.2% drop in the previous month. The recovery was largely driven by a strong rebound in the output of machinery (25.7% vs -13.9% in March), electrical equipment (11.7% vs -3.7%), and transport equipment (4.2% vs -6.7%). Additionally, production continued to increase for electronic components (8.3% vs 1.5%) and wood, paper products and printing (0.8% vs 0.2%). Meanwhile, activity declined for basic metals and fabricated metal products (-3.4% vs 2.9%) and pharmaceuticals (-5.3% vs -3.8%). On a non-seasonally adjusted yearly basis, manufacturing output decreased by 15.4% in April, following a 2.5% fall in the preceding period.

天然气和石油预测：地缘政治紧张局势推高价格，但阻力迫在眉睫。随着需求和地缘政治紧张局势提振市场情绪，WTI原油上涨4%，但阻力位在63.86美元，亚洲需求上限上涨疲软。

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Lift Prices, But Resistance Looms.WTI crude rises 4% as demand and geopolitical tensions lift sentiment, but resistance at $63.86 and weak Asia demand cap gains.

2025年4月，德国工业生产环比下降1.4%，超过了1%的下降预期，扭转了3月份向下修正的2.3%的增长。这标志着自12月以来工业活动的最大跌幅，主要是由于大多数经济部门的负面贡献。制药行业（-17.7%）和机械设备（-2.4%）的产出显著下降。相比之下，建筑业（+1.4%）和食品业（+5.7%）的产量有所增长。能源密集型产业的产出也下降了2.1%。波动较小的三个月平均值显示，2月至4月的工业生产比前三个月增长了0.5%。在3月份下降0.7%之后，产量同比下降1.8%。

Germany’s industrial production fell by 1.4% month-over-month in April 2025, exceeding expectations of a 1% decline and reversing a downwardly revised 2.3% increase in March. This marked the steepest drop in industrial activity since December, driven by negative contributions across most economic sectors. Output declined notably in the pharmaceuticals industry (-17.7%) and in machinery and equipment (-2.4%). In contrast, production increased in the construction sector (+1.4%) and the food industry (+5.7%). Output in energy-intensive industries also dropped by 2.1%. The less volatile three-month average showed that industrial production was 0.5% higher from February to April compared to the previous three-month period. On a yearly basis, output declined by 1.8%, following a 0.7% decrease in March.