天然气价格预测：支持3.23美元。天然气继续下跌，接近3.23美元的关键斐波那契支撑位，多个看跌信号和确认的每周下跌增加了下行压力。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Eyes Support at $3.23.Natural gas extended its decline, approaching key Fibonacci support at $3.23, with multiple bearish signals and a confirmed weekly breakdown adding downside pressure.

在纽约，道琼斯指数周五上涨332点，涨幅0.78%。涨幅最大的是联合健康（6.46%）、3M（2.94%）和默克（1.87%）。跌幅最大的是思科系统（-1.00%）、雪佛龙（-0.18%）和波音（-0.15%）。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index rose 332 points or 0.78 percent on Friday. Leading the gains are UnitedHealth (6.46%), 3M (2.94%) and Merck (1.87%). Top losers were Cisco Systems (-1.00%), Chevron (-0.18%) and Boeing (-0.15%).

长期证券、短期美国证券和银行流量的净外国收购为2543亿美元的净TIC流入。其中包括2592亿美元的外国私人净流入，部分被外国官方机构49亿美元的净流出所抵消。外国居民增持了长期美国证券，净购买总额为1832亿美元，其中私人投资者净购买1460亿美元，官方机构净购买373亿美元。与此同时，美国居民增持了长期外国证券，净购买额为215亿美元。考虑到调整因素，包括通过股票互换估计的外国对美国股票的收购，外国对长期证券的总体净购买额估计为1618亿美元。

Net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term US securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $254.3 billion. This included $259.2 billion in net private foreign inflows, partially offset by $4.9 billion in net outflows from foreign official institutions. Foreign residents boosted their holdings of long-term US securities, with net purchases totaling $183.2 billion—$146.0 billion by private investors and $37.3 billion by official institutions. Meanwhile, US residents increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, recording net purchases of $21.5 billion. After accounting for adjustments, including estimated foreign acquisitions of US stocks via stock swaps, overall net foreign purchases of long-term securities were estimated at $161.8 billion.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.3%，达到25972点的历史新高，创下2.4%的周涨幅，因为金融和科技权重股的强势抵消了大宗商品生产商的疲软。加拿大皇家银行和Shopify领涨，分别上涨1.2%和1.5%，受美中贸易紧张局势缓解带来的风险偏好改善的支撑。尽管如此，主要能源和矿业股的下跌缓和了资源密集型指数的反弹。与此同时，加拿大统计局的数据显示，3月份国内投资者购买了156亿加元的外国证券，而外国投资者从加拿大资产中撤出了42亿加元。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3% to a record high of 25,972 on Friday, capping a 2.4% weekly gain as strength in financial and tech heavyweights offset weakness among commodity producers. Royal Bank of Canada and Shopify led the advance with respective gains of 1.2% and 1.5%, supported by improved risk appetite amid easing US-China trade tensions. Still, losses in major energy and mining shares tempered the rally on the resource-heavy index. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada data showed domestic investors purchased C$15.6 billion in foreign securities in March, while foreign investors pulled C$4.2 billion from Canadian assets.

受美中贸易紧张局势缓解的推动，华尔街本周以高价收盘，三大股指均录得稳健的周涨幅。标准普尔500指数周五上涨0.7%，连续第五天上涨，纳斯达克指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯指数上涨331点，抹去了今年迄今的跌幅。本周早些时候，美国和中国之间为期90天的关税休战提振了市场情绪，推动标准普尔500指数今年重回正值区间。然而，疲软的消费者信心数据略微缓和了涨势，密歇根大学指数降至50.8，为历史第二低，而一年期通胀预期跃升至7.3%。大型科技公司的表现喜忧参半，Alphabet上涨1.2%，Meta下跌0.5%。本周，标准普尔500指数上涨5.3%，道琼斯指数上涨3.4%，纳斯达克指数飙升7%。本周科技股上涨，英伟达领涨16%。Meta上涨8%，苹果上涨6%，微软上涨3%。

Wall Street closed the week on a high note, with all three major indexes posting solid weekly gains, buoyed by easing US-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Friday, marking its fifth consecutive daily gain, while the Nasdaq added 0.4% and the Dow advanced 331 points, erasing year-to-date losses. A 90-day tariff truce between the US and China earlier in the week lifted market sentiment, pushing the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year. However, soft consumer sentiment data slightly tempered the rally, as the University of Michigan’s index fell to 50.8—its second-lowest reading on record—while one-year inflation expectations jumped to 7.3%. Big Tech performance was mixed, with Alphabet rising 1.2% and Meta slipping 0.5%. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 5.3%, the Dow rose 3.4%, and the Nasdaq surged 7%. Tech stocks rallied this week, led by Nvidia’s 16% surge. Meta rose 8%, Apple climbed 6%, and Microsoft added 3%.

周五，布伦特原油期货上涨1.4%，收于每桶65.4美元，周涨幅超过2%，连续第二年上涨，因为美中贸易紧张局势的缓解提振了市场情绪。世界上最大的两个石油消费国之间为期90天的关税休战有助于缓解人们对需求疲软的担忧。与此同时，美国与伊朗可能达成的核协议仍存在不确定性，这可能会给市场带来每天40万桶的额外供应。尽管供应可能增加，但对美国降息的希望继续通过可能提振经济活动和石油需求来支持看涨前景。然而，由于美国原油库存增加，国际能源署预测，由于欧佩克+产量增加，2025年将出现供应过剩，因此仍需谨慎。分析师还下调了长期油价预测，理由是贸易政策的不确定性。

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.4% to settle at $65.4 per barrel on Friday, logging a weekly gain of over 2%—their second in a row—as easing US-China trade tensions boosted sentiment. A 90-day tariff truce between the world’s two largest oil consumers helped soothe concerns about weakening demand. Meanwhile, uncertainty lingered over a possible US-Iran nuclear deal, which could bring an additional 400,000 barrels per day to the market. Despite the potential supply increase, hopes for US rate cuts continued to support a bullish outlook by potentially boosting economic activity and oil demand. However, caution remained as US crude stockpiles rose and the IEA projected a supply surplus in 2025 due to higher OPEC+ output. Analysts also lowered long-term oil price forecasts, citing trade policy uncertainty.

周五，WTI原油期货上涨1.4%，收于每桶62.5美元，周涨幅超过2%，连续第二年上涨，因为美中贸易紧张局势的缓解提振了市场情绪。世界上最大的两个石油消费国之间为期90天的关税休战有助于缓解人们对需求疲软的担忧。与此同时，美国与伊朗可能达成的核协议仍存在不确定性，这可能会给市场带来每天40万桶的额外供应。尽管供应可能增加，但对美国降息的希望继续通过可能提振经济活动和石油需求来支持看涨前景。然而，由于美国原油库存增加，国际能源署预测，由于欧佩克+产量增加，2025年将出现供应过剩，因此仍需谨慎。分析师还下调了长期油价预测，理由是贸易政策的不确定性。

WTI crude oil futures climbed 1.4% to settle at $62.5 per barrel on Friday, logging a weekly gain of over 2%—their second in a row—as easing US-China trade tensions boosted sentiment. A 90-day tariff truce between the world’s two largest oil consumers helped soothe concerns about weakening demand. Meanwhile, uncertainty lingered over a possible US-Iran nuclear deal, which could bring an additional 400,000 barrels per day to the market. Despite the potential supply increase, hopes for US rate cuts continued to support a bullish outlook by potentially boosting economic activity and oil demand. However, caution remained as US crude stockpiles rose and the IEA projected a supply surplus in 2025 due to higher OPEC+ output. Analysts also lowered long-term oil price forecasts, citing trade policy uncertainty.

天然气、WTI原油、布伦特原油预测——周末前油价反弹。随着交易员关注关税消息，石油市场正在走高。

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Prices Rebound Ahead Of The Weekend.Oil markets are moving higher as traders focus on tariff news.

周五，小麦期货跌至每蒲式耳5.30美元以下，从4月23日以来的最高水平回落，因为美国平原产量前景的改善给价格带来了压力，尽管强劲的出口需求有助于限制损失。堪萨斯州是美国最大的小麦种植州，有利的天气和及时的降雨提高了人们对四年来最佳产量的预期。美国小麦每周出口销量达到80.48万吨，超过分析师预测，但供应增加的前景给市场带来了压力。分析人士表示，随着作物条件的改善，小麦价格的大幅上涨很难自圆其说。尽管如此，中国下周对高风险干燥热风的警告引发了人们对河南等主要产区潜在作物损失的担忧。这给全球小麦供应前景带来了新的不确定性。

Wheat futures fell below $5.30 per bushel on Friday, pulling back from their highest level since April 23, as improved yield prospects in the US Plains pressured prices, though strong export demand helped limit losses. Favorable weather and timely rains in Kansas—the top US wheat-growing state—boosted expectations for the best yields in four years. Weekly US wheat export sales reached 804,800 metric tons, surpassing analyst forecasts, but the prospect of rising supply weighed on the market. Analysts said that with improving crop conditions, a major rally in wheat is hard to justify. Still, China’s warning of high-risk dry, hot winds next week raised concerns about potential crop damage in key producing regions like Henan. This introduced fresh uncertainty into the global wheat supply outlook.

在美中贸易紧张局势缓解的支撑下，下午三大股指均上涨，有望实现稳健的周涨幅。标准普尔500指数上涨0.5%，连续第五天下涨，纳斯达克指数上涨0.3%，道琼斯指数上涨200多点。90天的关税休战有助于提振市场情绪，推动标普500指数今年重回正值区间。然而，周五疲软的消费者信心数据略有影响，密歇根大学指数降至50.8，为有史以来第二低，一年期通胀预期跃升至7.3%。投资者保持谨慎，关注特朗普的税收法案进展和即将公布的关税。大型科技股涨跌互现，Alphabet上涨1.5%，Meta下跌超过1%，尽管该行业仍是本周表现最好的股票之一。本周，标准普尔500指数有望上涨5%，道琼斯指数上涨3%，纳斯达克指数上涨6%以上。

All three major indexes were higher in the afternoon session and on track for solid weekly gains, supported by easing US-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, heading for a fifth straight daily gain, while the Nasdaq added 0.3% and the Dow advanced over 200 points. A 90-day tariff truce helped lift sentiment, pushing the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year. However, soft consumer sentiment data on Friday weighed slightly, with the University of Michigan’s index falling to 50.8—its second-lowest reading ever—and one-year inflation expectations jumping to 7.3%. Investors remained cautious, watching Trump’s tax bill progress and upcoming tariff announcements. Big Tech stocks were mixed, with Alphabet up 1.5% and Meta down over 1%, though the sector was still among the week’s top performers. For the week, the S&P 500 is on track to rise 5%, the Dow 3%, and the Nasdaq more than 6%.

2000美元升至2110.00指数点的7周高点。在过去的4周里，美国股市指数（US2000）上涨了12.11%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了0.6%。

US2000 increased to a 7-week high of 2110.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, United States Stock Market Index (US2000) gained 12.11%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.6%.

美国贝克休斯公司美国石油钻井平台数量从之前的474个下降到473个。美国贝克休斯公司美国石油钻井平台数量从之前的474个下降到473个

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 474 to 473.United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 474 to 473

木材期货交易价格超过每千板英尺600美元，从5月6日的年度低点538美元回升，原因是北美住房建设激增和供应受限。在加拿大，4月份的房屋开工量跃升30%，达到278606套，其中蒙特利尔的多单元项目激增64%，而美国的开工量攀升至136.1万套，其中多户建筑增长了11%。然而，尽管投入成本上升，锯木厂产量仍受到环境限制、疫情时期停工和货运瓶颈的阻碍——4月份软木木材PPI上涨了3%，能源和运输附加费仍然很高——消耗了主要配送中心的库存。随着建筑许可证向长期非住宅工作倾斜，夏季建筑高峰期迫在眉睫，经销商正在积极补充库存，短期内木材价格几乎没有缓解。

Lumber futures traded above $600 per thousand board feet, recovering from yearly lows of $538 seen May 6th amid surging North American homebuilding and constrained supply. In Canada, April housing starts jumped 30% to 278,606 units, led by a 64% surge in Montréal’s multi-unit projects, while US starts climbed to an annualized 1.361 million, underpinned by an 11% rise in multi-family construction. Yet sawmill output remains hampered by environmental curbs, pandemic-era shutdowns and freight bottlenecks, even as input costs escalate—softwood lumber PPI advanced 3% in April, and energy and transport surcharges remain elevated—depleting inventories at key distribution hubs. With building permits skewed toward longer-lead nonresidential work and peak summer construction looming, dealers are restocking aggressively, leaving little near-term relief for lumber prices.

斯里兰卡的服务业采购经理人指数从3月份的69.8降至2025年4月的60.6，表明服务业活动的扩张速度放缓。新业务放缓，但仍牢牢处于扩张区间（56.7比68.3），主要得益于金融服务和批发零售贸易的改善。受几家公司新招聘的推动，就业率继续上升（55.0比61.9）。与此同时，积压的工作进一步下降（47.5对48.4），而对未来活动的预期有所改善（75.8对73.0）。

Sri Lanka's Services PMI eased to 60.6 in April 2025 from 69.8 in March, indicating a slower pace of expansion in services activity. New businesses slowed but remained firmly in the expansionary territory (56.7 vs 68.3), mainly supported by improvements in financial services and wholesale and retail trade. Employment continued to rise (55.0 vs 61.9), driven by new recruitments across several companies. Meanwhile, backlogs of work declined further (47.5 vs 48.4), while expectations for future activity improved (75.8 vs 73.0).

斯里兰卡的制造业采购经理人指数从3月份的63.9急剧降至2025年4月的40.1，为两年来的最低水平，与季节性收缩相一致。这一下降主要是由于工作日减少导致产量急剧下降（3月份为30比70.2）。新订单（36.5比71.2）也大幅下降，反映了节日需求的减弱，特别是在食品和饮料行业。随着生产和新订单的下降，采购库存也下降了（41比62），就业率下降（44.9比51.9），因为制造商在季节性生产结束后缩减了临时员工。与此同时，供应商的交货时间（57比56.3）进一步延长，主要是由于与节日相关的供应链中断。

Sri Lanka's manufacturing PMI dropped sharply to 40.1 in April 2025 from 63.9 in March, the lowest in two years and consistent with seasonal contraction. The fall was primarily driven by a steep decline in production (30 vs 70.2 in March) due to fewer working days. New orders (36.5 vs 71.2) also contracted significantly, reflecting the waning festive season demand, particularly in the food and beverage sector. In line with the declines in production and new orders, the stock of purchases also fell (41 vs 62), and employment (44.9 vs 51.9) declined as manufacturers scaled back temporary staff following the end of seasonal production. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery time (57 vs 56.3) lengthened further, mainly due to festive season-related supply chain disruptions.