市场每周展望——美国个人消费支出、日本通胀和关税成为焦点。随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺未来将征收更多关税，市场又度过了一个有趣的一周。俄罗斯和乌克兰之间似乎正在达成一项潜在的和平协议，但这并没有削弱避险天堂的吸引力，因为黄金继续占据高位。

Markets Weekly Outlook – US PCE, Japanese Inflation & Tariffs in Focus.Markets had another interesting week as US President Donald Trump pledged more tariffs ahead. A potential peace deal appears to be gaining traction between Russia and Ukraine but this did little to dent the appeal of Safe havens as Gold continues to hold the high ground.

在加拿大央行3月利率决定之前，关注加拿大国内生产总值。在12月和1月劳动力市场报告更加强劲之后，加拿大国内生产总值将成为关注的焦点，而整体通胀意外上升增加了加拿大央行放弃3月份再次降息的可能性。

Focus on Canadian GDP Ahead of BoC's March Interest Rate Decision.Canadian gross domestic product will be in focus after firmer labour market reports in December and January, and an upside headline inflation surprise increased the odds that the Bank of Canada will forego another rate cut in March.

在纽约，道琼斯指数周五下跌776点，跌幅1.76%。联合健康（-7.44%）、英伟达（-3.88%）和美国运通（-2.95%）领跌。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index dropped 776 points or 1.76 percent on Friday. Losses were led by UnitedHealth (-7.44%), Nvidia (-3.88%) and American Express (-2.95%).

周五，Ibovespa指数下跌0.5%，收于127128点，将其周跌幅扩大至0.9%，原因是特朗普总统再次发出的美国关税威胁和持续的地缘政治紧张局势，特别是全球贸易的不确定性和乌克兰冲突，抑制了巴西市场的风险偏好。令人失望的公司业绩也给市场情绪带来了压力，尽管BB Seguridade的盈利强劲，超过了预期，但其股价暴跌了7%，因为投资者关注的是2025年预计收入下降0.4%，这与其历史15%的增长和行业4.4%的平均水平形成了鲜明对比，引发了人们对其长期前景的担忧。Lojas Renner表现最差，在第四季度业绩疲软后下跌13%。更广泛的非必需消费品行业也在苦苦挣扎，Rumo Logística、Localiza Rent、Hapvida和Atacado的股价下跌了1.1%至3.3%。

The Ibovespa fell 0.5% to close at 127,128 on Friday, extending its weekly decline to 0.9% as renewed U.S. tariff threats from President Trump and persistent geopolitical tensions—particularly global trade uncertainties and the Ukraine conflict—dampened risk appetite in the Brazilian market. Disappointing corporate results also pressured sentiment, with BB Seguridade plunging 7% despite strong earnings that beat forecasts, as investors focused on a projected 0.4% revenue decline for 2025, a sharp contrast to its historical 15% growth and the industry’s 4.4% average, raising concerns about its long-term outlook. Lojas Renner was the worst performer, tumbling 13% after weak fourth-quarter results. The broader consumer discretionary sector also struggled, with Rumo Logística, Localiza Rent, Hapvida, and Atacadão shedding between 1.1% and 3.3%.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌1.4%，收于25147点，使其周跌幅达到1.3%，因为投资者评估了好坏参半的经济数据，这些数据给加拿大央行的政策轨迹带来了不确定性。1月份零售额下降0.4%，为七个月来首次下降，这表明在12月强劲增长后，消费者支出疲软，引发了人们对经济势头的担忧。与此同时，通胀压力依然强劲，工业生产者价格环比上涨1.6%，原材料价格指数环比上涨3.7%，突显出中国银行在平衡增长和价格稳定的同时缓和进一步宽松预期的挑战。大多数股票交易持平至负值，但大宗商品生产商在油价和金价下跌的情况下大幅下跌。能源巨头加拿大自然、森科尔、帝国石油和Cenovus下跌1.3%至4.2%，而主要矿商Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold、Wheaton Precious和Franco-Nevada下跌1.6%至2.3%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 1.4% to close at 25,147 on Friday, bringing its weekly loss to 1.3% as investors assessed mixed economic data that cast uncertainty over the Bank of Canada’s policy trajectory. A 0.4% decline in January retail sales, the first drop in seven months, signaled softening consumer spending after December’s strong surge, raising concerns about economic momentum. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained strong, with industrial producer prices rising 1.6% and the Raw Materials Price Index jumping 3.7% month-over-month, highlighting the BoC’s challenge in balancing growth and price stability while tempering expectations for further easing. Most equities traded flat to negative, but commodity producers saw sharp declines amid declining oil and gold prices. Energy giants Canadian Natural, Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus lost between 1.3% and 4.2%, while major miners Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, Wheaton Precious, and Franco-Nevada shed 1.6% to 2.3%.

周五，美国股市暴跌，因为经济数据引发了人们对美国经济放缓和持续通胀的担忧，促使投资者寻求更安全的资产。标准普尔500指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克100指数下跌2.1%，道琼斯指数暴跌748点，创下今年最大跌幅。联合健康股价暴跌7.2%，此前有报道称司法部正在调查其医疗保险计费做法，使其成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的成分股。消费者信心也受到打击，密歇根大学的指数降至64.7，反映出对通货膨胀的担忧日益加剧，消费者现在预计通货膨胀率在未来一年将上升至4.3%。此前，沃尔玛（-2.5%）的前景令人失望，人们对特朗普总统的关税政策的影响感到更广泛的担忧。本周，标准普尔500指数下跌1.6%，道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下跌2.5%和2.4%。

US stocks plunged on Friday as economic data raised concerns about a slowing US economy and persistent inflation, prompting investors to seek safer assets. The S&P 500 lost 1.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 2.1%, while the Dow Jones plunged 748 points, marking its biggest loss of the year. UnitedHealth shares plunged 7.2% following reports that the Department of Justice is investigating its Medicare billing practices, making it the worst-performing Dow component. Consumer sentiment also took a hit, with the University of Michigan’s index falling to 64.7, reflecting growing concerns over inflation, which consumers now expect to rise to 4.3% in the coming year. The slide followed Walmart's (-2.5%) disappointing outlook and broader fears about the impact of President Trump's tariff policies. On the week, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.6%, while the Dow and Nasdaq slipped 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

巴拉圭中央银行在2025年2月的会议上将货币政策利率维持在每年6.0%。这一决定考虑了关键的经济因素，包括美国创造的就业机会低于预期、失业率略有下降以及通货膨胀率上升至3.0%。美联储保持利率不变，而全球市场看到美元和国债收益率下降。由于供应预期的改善，油价下跌，而农产品价格则各不相同。在巴拉圭，经济活动温和增长，服务业和建筑业表现良好，而制造业和农业则有所下降。1月份，国内通货膨胀率达到1.0%，主要受食品和服务价格的推动。货币政策委员会重申其对价格稳定的承诺，并将继续监测经济趋势，以将通货膨胀率维持在3.5%的目标。

The Central Bank of Paraguay maintained the monetary policy rate at 6.0% per year in its February 2025 meeting. This decision considered key economic factors, including lower-than-expected job creation in the U.S., a slight drop in unemployment, and rising inflation to 3.0%. The Federal Reserve kept its interest rates unchanged, while global markets saw a decline in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Oil prices fell due to improved supply expectations, while agricultural commodity prices varied. In Paraguay, economic activity grew modestly, with services and construction performing well, while manufacturing and agriculture declined. Domestic inflation reached 1.0% in January, mainly driven by food and service prices. The MPC reaffirmed its commitment to price stability and will continue monitoring economic trends to maintain inflation at the 3.5% target.

天然气价格预测：阻力重重，熊市逆转在望。天然气在阻力位以下盘整，形成一颗看跌的流星。跌破4.15美元可能证实回调，可能在3.98美元和3.75美元附近形成支撑。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Struggles at Resistance, Bearish Reversal in Sight.Natural gas consolidates below resistance, forming a bearish shooting star. A break below $4.15 could confirm a pullback, with possible support near $3.98 and $3.75.

布伦特原油期货下跌2.7%，收于每桶74.4美元，本周下跌0.4%，因对俄罗斯供应中断的担忧提供了支撑，而潜在的乌克兰和平协议的不确定性迫在眉睫。俄罗斯报告称，由于乌克兰无人机袭击，里海管道财团的石油流量减少了30-40%，尽管哈萨克斯坦的出口路线受损，但产量仍创下历史新高，供应担忧加剧。与此同时，美国原油库存上升，而汽油和馏分油库存下降，因为炼油厂维护影响了加工水平。展望未来，分析师预计，美国寒冷的天气和中国工业活动的增加将在未来几周提振石油需求。

Brent crude oil futures declined 2.7% to settle at $74.4 per barrel, posting a 0.4% fall for the week, as concerns over Russian supply disruptions provided support while uncertainty loomed over a potential Ukraine peace deal. Supply concerns intensified after Russia reported a 30-40% reduction in Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows due to a Ukrainian drone attack, though Kazakhstan managed record-high output despite damage to its export route. Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell as refinery maintenance impacted processing levels. Looking ahead, analysts expect cold US weather and increased industrial activity in China to boost oil demand in the coming weeks.

WTI原油期货下跌近2.9%，收于每桶70.4美元，本周下跌0.5%，因为对俄罗斯供应中断的担忧提供了支持，而潜在的乌克兰和平协议的不确定性迫在眉睫。俄罗斯报告称，由于乌克兰无人机袭击，里海管道财团的石油流量减少了30-40%，尽管哈萨克斯坦的出口路线受损，但产量仍创下历史新高，供应担忧加剧。与此同时，美国原油库存上升，而汽油和馏分油库存下降，因为炼油厂维护影响了加工水平。展望未来，分析师预计，美国寒冷的天气和中国工业活动的增加将在未来几周提振石油需求。

WTI crude oil futures lost nearly 2.9% to settle $70.4 per barrel, posting a 0.5% decline for the week, as concerns over Russian supply disruptions provided support while uncertainty loomed over a potential Ukraine peace deal. Supply concerns intensified after Russia reported a 30-40% reduction in Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows due to a Ukrainian drone attack, though Kazakhstan managed record-high output despite damage to its export route. Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell as refinery maintenance impacted processing levels. Looking ahead, analysts expect cold US weather and increased industrial activity in China to boost oil demand in the coming weeks.

2024年第四季度，秘鲁经济同比增长4.2%，高于前一时期向上修正的3.9%的增长，标志着自2022年第四财季以来的第四次年度扩张，这得益于国内需求的强劲（6.5%）。私人消费增长4.0%，受就业率上升和劳动收入增加的推动。政府支出下降0.5%，因为商品和服务支出的减少被人员和社会义务支出的增加部分抵消。此外，固定投资总额增长4.0%，其中建筑业增长1.3%，机械设备采购增长8.5%。与此同时，净贸易对GDP做出了积极贡献，由于非传统商品的销售增加，出口增长了5.8%（12.6%），而进口激增了13.7%，反映了农业资本货物的购买量增加（43%）。在生产方面，大多数行业都有所扩张，包括服务业（3.8%）、制造业（5.0%）、采掘业（3.3%）和建筑业（1.3%）。

Peru's economy advanced 4.2% year-on-year in Q4 of 2024, accelerating from an upwardly revised 3.9% increase in the prior period and marking the fourth yearly expansion since Q4 of 2022, supported by strength in domestic demand (6.5%). Private consumption rose 4.0%, driven by higher employment and increased labor income. Government spending fell 0.5%, as reductions in goods and services expenditures were partially offset by higher spending on personnel and social obligations. Also, gross fixed investment gained 4.0%, led by construction (1.3%) and machinery and equipment purchases (8.5%). Meanwhile, net trade contributed positively to GDP, with exports rising 5.8% due to higher sales of non-traditional goods (12.6%), while imports surged 13.7%, reflecting greater purchases of capital goods for agriculture (43%). On the production side, most sectors expanded, including services (3.8%), manufacturing (5.0%), extractive industries (3.3%), and construction (1.3%).

核能指数跌至22周低点26.19美元。在过去的4周里，核能指数下跌了13.46%，在过去的12个月里，它下跌了5.37%。

Nuclear Energy Index decreased to a 22-week low of 26.19 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Nuclear Energy Index lost 13.46%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 5.37%.

铝期货价格从2月20日的9个月高点2730美元跌至每吨2670美元，因为押注美国政府可能放松对俄罗斯的一些制裁缓解了人们对供应不足日益增长的担忧。2月第三周，这些发展使中国以外全球最大的铝生产商俄罗斯铝业的HDR上涨了50%，反映出该公司可能有机会获得新的出口合作伙伴。尽管欧盟委员会发出新的威胁，可能会对俄罗斯铝实施新的制裁。尽管如此，中国在2024年生产了4400万吨铝，这是有记录以来最多的，这意味着今年的产量将被迫大幅放缓，因为北京在2017年将产量限制在2500万吨，以防止供应过剩并帮助实现碳排放目标。尽管支持财政刺激的预算赤字可能会增加，这将带来信贷增长的改善。

Aluminum futures fell to $2,670 per tonne from the nine-month high of $2,730 on February 20th, as bets that the US government may relax some sanctions on Russia eased growing concerns of low supply. The developments lifted Rusal HDRs, the world’s largest aluminum producer outside China, by 50% in the third week of February, reflecting expectations that the company may have access to new export partners. This is despite fresh threats from the European Commission that it may place fresh sanctions on Russian aluminum. Still, China produced 44 million tons of aluminum in 2024, the most on record, meaning that output will be forced to slow considerably this year as Beijing capped production at 25 million tons in 2017 to prevent excess supply and aid carbon emission targets. This is despite the likely increase in the budget deficit to support fiscal stimulus, set to pick up winds of improving credit growth.

美国股市在下午延续抛售，疲软的经济数据和对通胀的担忧打压了投资者情绪。标准普尔500指数下跌1.7%，道琼斯指数暴跌800多点，纳斯达克100指数下跌2%。联合健康公司股价暴跌7%以上，此前有报道称司法部正在调查其医疗保险计费做法，使其成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的成分股。消费者信心也受到打击，密歇根大学的指数降至64.7，反映出对通货膨胀的担忧日益加剧，消费者现在预计通货膨胀率在未来一年将上升至4.3%。沃尔玛（-3%）警告称，由于关税的不确定性，价格可能上涨，这进一步打击了市场信心，导致周四市场整体低迷。虽然标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数仍有望周内上涨，但道琼斯指数正面临下跌，这表明经济不确定性加剧了波动性。

Stocks in the US extend sell-off in the afternoon session as weak economic data and concerns over inflation weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 lost 1.7%, while the Dow Jones plunged over 800 points, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 2%. UnitedHealth shares plunged more than 7% following reports that the Department of Justice is investigating its Medicare billing practices, making it the worst-performing Dow component. Consumer sentiment also took a hit, with the University of Michigan’s index falling to 64.7, reflecting growing concerns over inflation, which consumers now expect to rise to 4.3% in the coming year. Walmart’s (-3%) warning about potential price hikes due to tariff uncertainty further dampened market confidence, contributing to Thursday’s broader market downturn. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on track for weekly gains, the Dow is facing a loss, signaling increased volatility amid economic uncertainty.

德国大选在即：弗里德里希·默茨准备成为新总理。DAX 40指数正寻求支撑，欧元/美元在周日德国大选前围绕阻力位交易！

German Snap Elections Eyed: Friedrich Merz Poised to Be the New Chancellor.The DAX 40 is eyeing support and EUR/USD trades around resistance ahead of the German election on Sunday!