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早盘报价：美国CPI中发现关税印记。Kevin Buckland展望欧洲和全球市场未来一天

Morning Bid: Tariff imprint spied in US CPI.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

周三，美国10年期国债收益率保持在4.48%以上，接近五周高点，因为投资者正在等待最新的生产者价格指数数据，以进一步了解特朗普政府关税对通胀的影响。周二，在消费者通胀数据喜忧参半导致交易员降低对美联储降息的预期后，收益率攀升。总体通胀与月度和年度预测相符，而核心通胀低于预期。达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛根表示，在关税驱动的价格压力下，央行可能需要在较长一段时间内保持利率稳定，以确保通胀得到控制，这加剧了谨慎的前景。市场现在预计今年多次降息的可能性降低，9月份降息的可能性略高于50%。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held above 4.48% on Wednesday, remaining near a five-week high as investors awaited the latest producer price index data for further clues on the inflationary impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Yields climbed on Tuesday after mixed consumer inflation data led traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Headline inflation matched forecasts on both a monthly and annual basis, while core inflation came in softer than expected. Adding to the cautious outlook, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the central bank will likely need to keep rates steady for an extended period to ensure inflation remains contained amid tariff-driven price pressures. Markets are now pricing in reduced odds of multiple rate cuts this year, with the probability of a move in September hovering just above 50%.

美联储的洛根援引财政顺风和通胀风险作为维持利率的理由。达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛根隔夜表示，她预计在6月CPI公布后，美联储首选的通胀措施将略有回升，并警告不要过早放松政策。Logan表示，5月份个人消费支出通胀率为2.3%，最新的CPI数据“可能”意味着它将“略有上升”。

Fed's Logan cites fiscal tailwinds, inflation risk in case for rate hold.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said overnight that she expects a slight pickup in the Fed's preferred inflation measure following June's CPI release and warned against easing policy prematurely. With the PCE inflation gauge at 2.3% in May, Logan said the latest CPI data “probably” means it will “move up a bit.

在关税驱动的通胀风险中，美联储的柯林斯倾向于“积极耐心”的立场。波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯隔夜表示，美联储应在其立场上保持“积极耐心”。尽管当前形势复杂，但她认为，“坚实”的基本面给了美联储在制定政策之前仔细评估即将到来的数据的空间。

Fed's Collins favors “actively patient” stance amid tariff-driven inflation risks.Boston Fed President Susan Collins said overnight that the Fed should remain “actively patient” in its stance. Despite the complexity of current conditions, she argued that “solid” fundamentals give the Fed room to carefully assess incoming data before making policy moves.