欧元/美元 (EURUSD) 加自选

由于交易员监测到该国持续的政治动荡，法国10年期OAT的收益率在2.9%左右波动。政府周三将面临不信任投票，议会中最大的马琳·勒庞的极右翼政党预计将支持该动议。这场危机的爆发是由于对600亿欧元的增税和削减开支方案缺乏共识，促使政府援引《法国宪法》第49.3条通过社会保障预算，绕过议会批准。如果政府倒台，马克龙总统将需要任命一位新总理，这是一项具有挑战性的任务，正如今年早些时候所看到的那样。这种政治不确定性最近使法国国债相对于德国国债的风险溢价超过90个基点，达到2012年以来的最高水平。

The yield on France's 10-year OAT fluctuated around 2.9% as traders monitored ongoing political turmoil in the country. The government faces a no-confidence vote on Wednesday, with Marine Le Pen's far-right party, the largest in parliament, expected to support the motion. The crisis erupted due to a lack of consensus on a €60 billion package of tax increases and spending cuts, prompting the government to invoke Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass a social security budget, bypassing parliamentary approval. If the government falls, President Macron will need to appoint a new prime minister, a challenging task, as seen earlier this year. This political uncertainty has recently driven the French risk premium over German Bunds to over 90 basis points, marking its highest level since 2012.

2024年12月，美国RealClearMarkets/TIPP经济乐观指数上升0.8点至54，为2021年8月以来的最高水平，略低于市场预测的54.1。该指数在12月继续呈上升趋势，建立在11月唐纳德·特朗普历史性回归第47任总统后的强劲反弹之上。衡量政府经济政策有效性的RCM/TIPP联邦经济政策信心指数从11月的42.7上升到本月的47.7，增长了11.7%。与此同时，衡量美国人对未来六个月财务状况的个人财务展望从11月的61.0下降到本月的58.7，下降了3.8%。与此同时，衡量消费者对未来六个月经济前景看法的六个月期经济展望从之前的55.9微降至12月的55.6。

The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US increased by 0.8 points to 54 in December 2024, the highest since August 2021 and just below market forecasts of 54.1. The index continued its upward trend in December, building on the strong rebound seen in November following Donald Trump's historic return as the 47th President. The RCM/TIPP Confidence in Federal Economic Policies index, which gauges perceptions of the effectiveness of government economic policies, rose to 47.7 this month from 42.7 in November, marking an 11.7% increase. Meanwhile, the Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, declined by 3.8% from its previous reading of 61.0 in November to 58.7 this month. Concurrently, the Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined slightly to 55.6 in December from 55.9 previously.

美国股市周二持平至下跌，在标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数周一达到创纪录水平后暂停。10月份的职位空缺数据公布后，市场保持平静，该数据显示有774.4万个职位空缺，高于预期的748万个。投资者现在关注的是周五的就业报告，预计将显示稳健的招聘情况，以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三的演讲。市场预计美联储在12月降息的可能性为70%。在企业新闻方面，在特朗普宣布计划阻止其收购后，美国钢铁公司下跌6.3%，AT&T因强劲的现金流预测上涨3%，Credo Technology因强劲的盈利飙升33%。Salesforce在财报公布前下跌了4%。

US stocks were flat to lower on Tuesday, pausing after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record levels on Monday. The market was quiet following the release of October’s job openings data, which showed 7.744 million openings, above expectations of 7.48 million. Investors are now focused on Friday’s jobs report, expected to show solid hiring, and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. In corporate news, US Steel dropped 6.3% after Trump announced plans to block its acquisition, AT&T rose 3% on strong cash flow forecasts, and Credo Technology surged 33% on strong earnings. Salesforce was down 4% ahead of its earnings report.

美元指数在上一交易日上涨近0.7%后，周二小幅下跌至106.3附近。交易员继续评估政治和货币前景，同时密切关注关键经济数据。10月份的职位空缺数量增加到774.4万个，远高于9月份的737.2万个和预测的748万个。招聘人数从581.4万人降至531.3万人。这些数字突显了美国劳动力市场的持续弹性。投资者现在关注的是即将发布的关键就业报告和几位美联储官员的演讲，以衡量美联储本月的潜在政策举措。目前，联邦基金利率下调25个基点的可能性为74%，高于昨天的62%和一周前的53%。随着日本央行可能很快再次加息的预期上升，美元兑日元汇率下跌幅度最大。

The dollar index pared some losses to trade near 106.3 on Tuesday, following a nearly 0.7% gain in the previous session. Traders continue to assess the political and monetary outlook, while keeping a close eye on key economic data. The number of job openings increased to 7.744 million in October, way above 7.372 million in September and forecasts of 7.48 million. The number of hires was down to 5.313 million from 5.814 million. These figures underscore the continued resilience of the US labor market. Investors are now focused on the upcoming key jobs report and speeches from several Fed officials to gauge the Federal Reserve's potential policy moves this month. The odds for a 25bps rate cut in the fed funds rate currently stand at 74%, higher than 62% yesterday and 53% a week ago. The dollar weakened the most against the yen as expectations rise the Bank of Japan could soon raise interest rates again.