欧元/纽币 (EURNZD) 加自选

周四，受美元反弹的压力，新西兰元跌至0.592美元左右，接近三周多来的最低水平。在唐纳德·特朗普总统否认有关他可能很快解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的报道后，美元反弹，缓解了市场紧张局势。与此同时，投资者现在正在等待当天晚些时候公布的美国零售销售数据，这可能会进一步了解美国经济的健康状况和美联储的利率轨迹。在国内，新西兰储备银行本月早些时候暂停了降息周期，选择等待全面的通胀报告。然而，它表明，由于经济中的闲置产能，进一步的货币宽松政策仍有可能。经济新闻方面，新西兰6月份的年度食品通胀率从5月份的4.4%升至4.6%，为2023年12月以来的最高水平。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.592 on Thursday, remaining near its lowest level in more than three weeks, pressured by a rebound in the US dollar. The greenback recovered after President Donald Trump denied the reports suggesting he was likely to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell soon, easing market tensions. Meanwhile, investors now await the US retail sales data due later in the day, which could offer further insight into the health of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its rate-cutting cycle earlier this month, opting to wait for the full inflation report. However, it signaled that further monetary easing remains likely due to the amount of spare capacity in the economy. In economic news, New Zealand’s annual food inflation rose to 4.6% in June from 4.4% in May, marking the highest level since December 2023.

周四上午，新西兰元50指数上涨94点，涨幅0.7%，至12848点，延续了华尔街积极领先后的第二个交易日涨幅。在美国总统特朗普表示他没有罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的计划，缓解了人们对央行独立性的担忧后，市场情绪进一步增强。受运输、医疗保健和生产制造业强劲支撑，基准指数达到一周来的最高水平。然而，新的数据显示，新西兰6月份食品通胀率升至4.6%的1年半高点，标志着连续第八个月上涨，这限制了进一步的上涨。投资者在下周公布关键的国内数据之前也变得谨慎，包括第二季度的年度通胀和6月份的贸易平衡。T&G Global股价飙升7.3%，此前该公司报告称对潜在出售表现出强烈兴趣。其他显著上涨的是奥克兰国际机场（4.5%）、Ryman Healthcare（4.3%）和新西兰餐厅品牌（3.4%）。

The NZX 50 climbed 94 points or 0.7% to 12,848 on Thursday morning, extending gains for the second session following a positive lead from Wall Street. Sentiment strengthened further after U.S. President Trump said he had no plans to remove Fed Chair Powell, easing concerns about central bank independence. The benchmark index reached its highest level in a week, supported by strength in transport, healthcare, and producer manufacturing sectors. However, further upside was limited by fresh data showing New Zealand's food inflation rose to a 1-1/2-year high of 4.6% in June, marking an eighth consecutive monthly increase. Investors also turned cautious ahead of key domestic releases next week, including Q2 annual inflation and June’s trade balance. T&G Global surged 7.3% after reporting strong interest in a potential sale. Other notable gainers were Auckland Intl. Airport (4.5%), Ryman Healthcare (4.3%), and Restaurant Brands NZ (3.4%).

新西兰的年度食品通胀率在2025年6月达到4.6%，高于前一个月的4.4%，为2023年12月以来的最高水平。食品成本的持续上涨继续给家庭预算带来压力，其中杂货食品和肉类、家禽和鱼类类别的价格分别上涨了4.7%和6.4%。在杂货集团中，牛奶、黄油和奶酪的价格显著上涨，仅黄油一项就比十年前贵了近五美元，涨幅达120%。肉类价格也大幅上涨，其中牛排上涨22.3%，牛肉肉馅上涨15.6%。与此同时，水果和蔬菜价格上涨7.6%，餐馆餐和即食食品类上涨2.2%。在2025年5月上涨0.5%之后，食品价格在2025年6月每月上涨1.2%。

Annual food inflation in New Zealand to 4.6% in June 2025, up from 4.4% the month prior and marking the highest rate since December 2023. The persistent rise in food costs continues to strain household budgets, with the grocery food and meat, poultry, and fish categories driving the increase—up 4.7% and 6.4%, respectively. Within the grocery group, milk, butter, and cheese saw notable price gains, with butter alone nearly five dollars more expensive than a decade ago, representing a 120% surge. Meat prices also jumped, led by a 22.3% increase in beef steak and a 15.6% rise in beef mince. Meanwhile, prices of fruit and vegetables jumped 7.6% and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food category rose by 2.2%. On a monthly basis, food prices were up 1.2% in June 2025, following a 0.5% rise in May 2025.

周三，富时MIB指数下跌0.4%，收于39762点，因投资者监测到欧盟和美国之间不断升级的贸易紧张局势。在美国总统特朗普威胁从8月1日起对欧盟进口商品征收30%的关税后，欧盟贸易主管马罗斯·塞夫科维奇前往华盛顿进行谈判，欧洲表示这一关税将有效地阻止两个经济体之间的正常贸易。如果谈判失败，欧盟委员会已经准备好针对720亿欧元美国商品的反制措施。工业联合会主席伊曼纽尔·奥尔西尼强调，只有零关税是可以接受的，并指出欧元升值是欧洲出口商的另一个压力点。在企业方面，汽车相关股票领跌：拥有雪铁龙和标致的Stellantis下跌6.2%，此前雷诺对法国汽车行业的疲软预测导致其股价下跌18%，依维柯集团（-3.4%）追踪到面临美国高额关税的欧盟汽车制造商的更广泛疲软。相比之下，法拉利上涨2.1%。

The FTSE MIB index fell 0.4% to close at 39,762 on Wednesday as investors monitored escalating trade tensions between the EU and the US. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic traveled to Washington for talks after US President Trump threatened a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1—a rate Europe says would effectively halt normal trade between the two economies. The European Commission has prepared countermeasures targeting €72 billion in US goods, should talks fail. Confindustria President Emanuele Orsini emphasized that only zero tariffs would be acceptable, citing the euro’s appreciation as another pressure point for European exporters. On the corporate front, auto-related stocks led losses: Stellantis, which owns Citroen and Peugeot, dropped 6.2% after a weak auto industry forecast in France by Renault drove its shares down 18%, and Iveco Group (-3.4%), tracked broader weakness in EU carmakers facing steep US tariffs. In contrast, Ferrari gained 2.1%.