新西兰元周二升至0.598美元左右,连续第三个交易日上涨,受美元持续疲软的支撑。美元因贸易发展的不确定性而走弱,并在美联储货币政策决定之前更加谨慎。然而,新西兰元的涨幅部分受到中国服务业令人失望的数据的限制,该数据表明美国的关税开始对经济活动造成压力。鉴于中国是新西兰最大的贸易伙伴,这给新西兰货币增加了压力。人们的注意力也转向了即将发布的国内劳工报告,预计该报告将显示失业率上升,这可能会加强储备银行进一步放松货币政策的理由。市场已经预计,在5月晚些时候的央行会议上,降息25个基点的可能性为75%,预计今年将再降息三次。
The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.598 on Tuesday, advancing for the third consecutive session, supported by continued softness in the US dollar. The greenback weakened amid uncertainty over trade developments and increased caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. However, gains in the Kiwi were partially capped by disappointing data from China’s services sector, which suggested that US tariffs are beginning to weigh on economic activity. This added pressure to the antipodean currency, given China’s status as New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Attention also turned to the upcoming domestic labor report, which is expected to show a rise in the unemployment rate—potentially reinforcing the case for further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank. Markets have priced in a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the central bank’s meeting later in May, with a total of three additional cuts anticipated this year.