澳元/纽币 (AUDNZD) 加自选

周五，澳元兑美元汇率保持在0.657美元左右，徘徊在八个月高点附近，尽管人们普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在7月8日的货币政策会议上实施今年第三次降息。在通胀降温和经济前景疲软的情况下，预计央行将再降息25个基点。2025年第一季度通货膨胀率为2.4%，保持在2021年初以来的最低水平，仍在澳大利亚储备银行的2-3%目标范围内。与此同时，第一季度GDP仅增长0.2%，低于2024年第四季度的0.6%。经济学家和市场最初预计澳大利亚储备银行今年将降息三次，但在5月份将预测上调至四次，现在预计将降息五次，这是由于通胀放缓速度快于预期和经济疲软迹象造成的。尽管人们对进一步降息的预期越来越高，但受美元普遍疲软的推动，澳元今年迄今已上涨6%以上。

The Australian dollar held around $0.657 on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, despite widespread expectations that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year at its July 8 monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to lower rates by another 25 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Inflation stood at 2.4% in Q1 2025, remaining at its lowest level since early 2021 and still within the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, GDP grew just 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.6% in Q4 2024. Economists and markets initially expected three RBA rate cuts this year but raised their forecasts to four in May, and now anticipate up to five, driven by faster-than-expected disinflation and signs of economic weakness. Still, despite growing expectations of deeper rate reductions, the Australian dollar has risen more than 6% year-to-date, buoyed by broad-based weakness in the US dollar.

2025年5月澳大利亚家庭支出同比增长4.2%（预计增长3.5%），增长0.9%（预期增长0.5%）。澳大利亚统计局表示：“5月份的增长是由可自由支配商品和服务支出推动的。”。可自由支配支出增长1.1%，因为家庭在服装和鞋类、新车和外出就餐上的支出增加。

Australian Household Spending May 2025 +4.2% y/y (expected +3.5%), +0.9% m/m (exp +0.5%).Australian Household Spending for May 2025 +4.2% y/y expected +3.5%, prior +3.8%) +0.9% m/m expected + 0.5%, prior 0.0% The Australian Bureau of Statistics says: 'The rise in May was driven by spending on discretionary goods and services. 'Discretionary spending rose 1.1 per cent, as households spent more on clothing and footwear, new vehicles, and dining out.

2025年5月，澳大利亚家庭支出环比增长0.9%，从4月小幅修正的持平数据反弹，创下2024年10月以来的最快增长速度。本月，储备银行降息支持了这一回升。服装和鞋类（3.7%对-3.5%）、交通（1.7%对-1.0%）和家具（0.6%对-0.5%）的支出反弹。此外，杂项商品和服务支出加快（1.3%对0.1%），而卫生（1.1%对1.7%）、娱乐和文化（0.5%对0.8%）以及酒店、咖啡馆和餐馆（0.8%对2.3%）的支出继续增长。相比之下，食品（-0.1%对0.0%）和酒精饮料（-1.4%对-4.7%）的支出有所下降。从地区来看，所有州和地区的支出都有所增加，塔斯马尼亚州的增幅为0.6%，北领地的增幅为1.2%。按年度计算，支出增长了4.2%，高于4月份的3.8%，是五个月来最强劲的年度增长。

Household spending in Australia climbed 0.9% month-over-month in May 2025, rebounding from a marginally revised flat reading in April and recording the fastest pace of growth since October 2024. The upturn was supported by a rate cut from the Reserve Bank during the month. Spending bouncing back for clothing and footwear (3.7% vs -3.5%), transport (1.7% vs -1.0%), and furnishings (0.6% vs -0.5%). Further, miscellaneous goods and services expenditure accelerated (1.3% vs 0.1%) while outlays continued to rise for health (1.1% vs 1.7%), recreation and culture (0.5% vs 0.8%), and hotels, cafes, and restaurants (0.8% vs 2.3%). In contrast, spending fell for food (-0.1% vs 0.0%) and alcoholic beverages (-1.4% vs -4.7%). Regionally, expenditure increased across all states and territories, with gains ranging from 0.6% in Tasmania to 1.2% in the Northern Territory. On an annual basis, spending increased 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April, representing the strongest yearly growth in five months.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五微涨0.2%，至8612点，此前一个交易日表现平平，美国就业增长强于预期，失业率意外下降，增强了人们对美国经济韧性的信心，尽管有迹象表明私营部门招聘放缓，全球贸易不确定性持续存在。在澳大利亚，投资者的注意力转向了即将于今天晚些时候公布的月度家庭支出指标，以及下周澳大利亚储备银行的货币政策会议。市场普遍预计将降息25个基点，这将使现金利率降至3.60%。在个股中，涨幅显著的包括纽蒙特公司（1.2%）、嘉民集团（1.2%）和Wesfarmers有限公司（1%）。下跌方面，必和必拓集团有限公司下跌1.6%，美第奇公司下跌1.7%，力拓有限公司下跌1.7%。本周，该指数有望连续第二周上涨。

The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.2% to 8,612 on Friday, following a muted performance in the previous session, as stronger-than-expected US job growth and a surprise drop in the unemployment rate reinforced confidence in the resilience of the US economy—despite signs of slowing private-sector hiring and persistent global trade uncertainties. In Australia, investor focus shifted to the upcoming monthly household spending indicator, due later today, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting next week. Markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.60%. Among individual stocks, notable gainers included Newmont Corporation (1.2%), Goodman Group (1.2%), and Wesfarmers Limited (1%). On the downside, BHP Group Limited fell 1.6%, Pro Medicus Limited lost 1.7%, and Rio Tinto Limited declined 1.7%. For the week, the index is on track for its second consecutive weekly gain.