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周五，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率微升至4.37%，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，因为央行在降息问题上采取了更为谨慎的基调。澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克警告称，今年失业率可能会进一步上升，并暗示如果家庭消费继续增长，通货膨胀可能会卷土重来。她强调，政策决策将以即将公布的经济数据为指导，有关劳动力市场、通货膨胀和家庭支出的关键报告将在11月的下次会议之前公布。鉴于最近通胀的意外上升和澳大利亚储备银行更加谨慎的立场，投资者对央行今年再次降息的信心降低了。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged up to 4.37% on Friday, extending gains from the previous session as the central bank struck a more cautious tone on cutting interest rates. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has warned that the jobless rate is likely to rise further this year and hinted that inflation could make an unwelcome return if household consumption continues to grow. She emphasized that policy decisions will be guided by incoming economic data, with key reports on the labor market, inflation, and household spending due before the next meeting in November. Given the recent upside surprise in inflation and the RBA’s more guarded stance, investors have become less confident that the central bank will deliver another rate cut this year.

澳大利亚总督米歇尔·布洛克周五告诉议会委员会，澳大利亚经济表现良好，通货膨胀率在央行2-3%的目标范围内，劳动力市场紧张。她说：“到目前为止，我们的失业率很好。我们的通货膨胀率又回到了区间。我们处于一个相当不错的位置。”。家庭消费正在上升，抵消了公共需求的减弱，并支持了经济增长。上个月，在自2月以来三次降息后，储备银行将利率维持在3.6%，因为它正在监测通胀向目标中点的变化。强劲的支出、实际收入增长、有弹性的房地产市场和紧张的劳动力市场支持维持利率。布洛克指出，服务业通胀仍然“棘手”，并强调了全球的不确定性，包括美国的保护主义政策、地缘政治紧张局势和中国需求放缓，尽管最坏的关税情景尚未实现。

Australia’s economy is performing well, with inflation within the central bank's 2–3% target range and a tight labor market, Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary committee Friday. “We have got a good unemployment rate so far. We have got inflation back in the band. We are in a pretty good spot,” she said. Household consumption is rising, offsetting weaker public demand and supporting growth. The Reserve Bank left interest rates at 3.6% last month, after three cuts since February, as it monitors inflation toward the target midpoint. Strong spending, real income growth, a resilient housing market, and a tight labor market support holding rates. Bullock noted services inflation remains “sticky” and highlighted global uncertainties, including U.S. protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and slower Chinese demand, though worst-case tariff scenarios have not materialized.

周五，澳元升值至0.657美元左右，从前一天澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克发表谨慎言论后触及的近两周低点略有反弹。她表示，服务业通胀持续存在，第二季度通胀略高于预期，但正朝着正确的方向发展。布洛克补充说，政策决定将取决于11月4日下次会议之前即将公布的就业、通胀和家庭支出数据。市场现在普遍预计，央行在9月份将政策利率维持在3.6%不变后，将保持稳定。尽管如此，由于其他主要货币疲软，美元普遍走强，澳元仍有望小幅下跌。然而，由于市场对美国劳动力市场的担忧，预计美联储在10月和12月降息的可能性很高，不同的美联储政策前景可能会支撑澳元。

The Australian dollar appreciated to around $0.657 on Friday, slightly rebounding from a nearly two-week low touched the previous day after RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck cautious remarks. She said services inflation remains persistent, with second-quarter inflation slightly above expectations but moving in the right direction. Bullock added that policy decisions will depend on upcoming data on jobs, inflation, and household spending ahead of the next meeting on November 4. Markets now largely expect the central bank to maintain its policy rate steady after leaving it unchanged at 3.6% in September. Still, the Aussie remained on track for modest weekly losses, pressured by a broadly firmer US dollar, driven by weakness in other major currencies. However, divergent RBA-Fed policy outlooks could support the AUD, as markets priced in a high likelihood of Fed rate cuts in October and December amid US labor market concerns.

澳大利亚储备银行的布洛克：通胀回到区间，但服务业仍有粘性，就业市场紧张。澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克今天告诉议员，经济处于“相当好的位置”，通货膨胀率回到2-3%的目标区间，劳动力市场仍然紧张。她在堪培拉的一个议会委员会面前说：“现在的关键是确保它可持续地留在那里。

RBA's Bullock: Inflation back in band but services still sticky, jobs market tight.RBA Governor Michele Bullock told lawmakers today that the economy is in a “pretty good spot,” with inflation back within the 2–3% target band and the labor market still tight. Speaking before a parliamentary committee in Canberra, she said, “the key now is to make sure it stays there sustainably.