欧元/丹麦克朗 (EURDKK) 加自选

2025年7月，欧元区的进口额同比增长3.1%，达到2391亿欧元，为3月以来的最高水平，这是由于食品和饮料（+9.3%）、化学品（+10.6%）以及机械和车辆（+2.0%）的购买量增加。从来源来看，来自美国的进口增长了11.3%，反映了持续的贸易关税不确定性，此外还有中国（+3.6%）、英国（+1.0%）、瑞士（+7.3%）和土耳其（+9.0%）。

Imports into the Euro Area climbed 3.1% year-on-year to €239.1 billion in July 2025, their highest level since March, driven by stronger purchases of food & drink (+9.3%), chemicals (+10.6%), and machinery & vehicles (+2.0%). By source, imports rose from the US (+11.3%), reflecting ongoing trade tariff uncertainty, as well as China (+3.6%), UK (+1.0%), Switzerland (+7.3%), and Turkey (+9.0%).

2025年7月，欧元区出口同比增长0.4%，达到2515亿欧元，为3月以来的最高水平。对英国（+2.9%）、瑞士（+8.8%）和土耳其（+6.3%）的出货量增加抵消了对美国（-4.5%）和中国（-8.9%）等主要市场的下降。食品和饮料（+2.8%）以及机械和车辆（+3.5%）推动了增长，而原材料（-4.7%）、燃料和润滑油（-18.5%）以及化学品（-6.0%）对整体出口造成了压力。

Euro Area exports increased 0.4% year-on-year to €251.5 billion in July 2025, marking their highest level since March. Higher shipments to the UK (+2.9%), Switzerland (+8.8%), and Turkey (+6.3%) offset declines to major markets including the US (-4.5%) and China (-8.9%). Growth was driven by food & drink (+2.8%) and machinery & vehicles (+3.5%), while raw materials (-4.7%), fuels & lubricants (-18.5%), and chemicals (-6.0%) weighed on overall exports.

2025年7月，欧元区贸易顺差从一年前的185亿欧元收窄至124亿欧元，但略高于市场预期的117亿欧元。对美国的高度敏感的顺差从160亿欧元缩减至112亿欧元，因为进口激增（+11.3%）加上出口下降（-4.5%）突显了贸易关税不确定性的持续影响。进口总额增长3.1%，达到2391亿欧元，主要原因是食品和饮料（+9.3%）、化学品（+10.6%）以及机械和车辆（+2.0%）的购买量增加。按目的地划分，来自中国（+3.6%）、英国（+1.0%）、瑞士（+7.3%）和土耳其（+9.0%）的进口有所增长。与此同时，出口增长0.4%，达到2515亿欧元，这得益于食品和饮料（+2.8%）以及机械和车辆（+3.5%）出货量的增长，但受到原材料（-4.7%）、燃料和润滑油（-18.5%）以及化学品（-6.0%）下降的拖累。对英国（+2.9%）、瑞士（+8.8%）和土耳其（+6.3%）的出货量增加抵消了对中国（-8.9%）的下降。

The Euro Area trade surplus narrowed to €12.4 billion in July 2025, down from €18.5 billion a year earlier, but slightly above market expectations of €11.7 billion. The highly sensitive surplus with the US shrank to €11.2 billion from €16.0 billion as the surge in imports (+11.3%) combined with declining exports (-4.5%) highlighted the ongoing impact of trade tariff uncertainty. Total imports climbed 3.1% to €239.1 billion, driven by stronger purchases of food & drink (+9.3%), chemicals (+10.6%), and machinery & vehicles (+2.0%). By destination, imports rose from China (+3.6%), UK (+1.0%), Switzerland (+7.3%), and Turkey (+9.0%). Meanwhile, exports increased 0.4% to €251.5 billion, supported by rising shipments of food & drink (+2.8%) and machinery & vehicles (+3.5%), but weighed down by declines in raw materials (-4.7%), fuels & lubricants (-18.5%), and chemicals (-6.0%). Higher shipments to the UK (+2.9%), Switzerland (+8.8%) and Turkey (+6.3%) offset a decline to China (-8.9%).

意大利10年期政府债券收益率回落至3.5%，投资者展望了货币政策的关键一周。普遍预计美联储将在周三降息至少25个基点，同时关注最新的经济预测和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会，以寻找年底前的线索。政策制定者面临着在劳动力市场降温与关税带来的通胀压力之间取得平衡的挑战，而美联储的独立性问题依然存在。在其他地方，预计英格兰银行和日本银行将保持借贷成本不变。在欧洲，欧洲央行上周表示，其降息阶段可能已经结束，行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德强调，增长风险似乎“更加平衡”

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield slipped back toward 3.5% as investors looked ahead to a pivotal week for monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday, with attention also on updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the path into year-end. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing a cooling labor market against inflationary pressures from tariffs, while questions over the Fed’s independence linger. Elsewhere, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are anticipated to leave borrowing costs unchanged. In Europe, the ECB signaled last week that its rate-cutting phase may have concluded, with President Christine Lagarde emphasizing that growth risks appear “more balanced.”