欧元/丹麦克朗 (EURDKK) 加自选

2025年8月，德国工厂订单环比下降0.8%，低于市场对1.4%增长的预期，此前一个月下调了2.7%。这是连续第四个月下降，主要是由于汽车行业的衰退（-6.4%）。数据处理、电子和光学产品（-11.5%）和药品（-13.5%）的需求也有所减弱。相比之下，金属制品（15.4%）、其他运输设备（17.1%）和电气设备（7.2%）的订单有所增长。按类别划分，资本品（-1.5%）和消费品（-10.3%）的需求有所收缩，但中间产品（3.0%）有所增长。外国订单下降4.1%，非欧元区（-5.0%）和欧元区（-2.9%）市场均有所下降，而国内需求增长4.7%。不包括大型合同，整体订单下降3.3%。6月至8月，工厂订单平均下降2.3%，突显出工业活动持续疲软。

Germany’s factory orders fell 0.8% month-on-month in August 2025, missing market expectations for a 1.4% rise and following a downwardly revised 2.7% drop in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight monthly decline, largely driven by a slump in the automotive sector (-6.4%). Demand also weakened for data processing, electronic and optical products (-11.5%) and pharmaceuticals (-13.5%). In contrast, orders rose for metal products (15.4%), other transport equipment (17.1%), and electrical equipment (7.2%). By category, demand contracted for capital goods (-1.5%) and consumer goods (-10.3%) but increased for intermediate goods (3.0%). Foreign orders dropped 4.1%, with decreases from both non-euro area (-5.0%) and euro area (-2.9%) markets, while domestic demand grew 4.7%. Excluding large-scale contracts, overall orders fell 3.3%. On a three-month average basis, factory orders were down 2.3% between June and August, highlighting persistent weakness in industrial activity.

周二，欧洲股市开局平淡，法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努辞职后，持续的政治不确定性打压了市场情绪。总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙给了莱科尔努大约48小时的时间与竞争对手进行最后讨论，以打破政治僵局。周一，法国股市暴跌，银行和保险公司首当其冲，因为OAT价格下跌对资产负债表造成压力，并推高了流动性利率。法国巴黎银行、法国农业信贷银行、法国兴业银行和安盛银行均出现显著亏损。在数据方面，投资者将关注德国工厂订单、英国房价数据和法国贸易数据，以寻找新的方向。在盘前交易中，欧洲斯托克50指数和斯托克600指数期货徘徊在平线附近。

European equity markets were set for a muted start on Tuesday as ongoing political uncertainty in France weighed on sentiment following the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. President Emmanuel Macron has given Lecornu roughly 48 hours for final discussions with rival parties in an effort to break the political deadlock. French stocks slumped on Monday, with banks and insurers bearing the brunt as falling OAT prices pressured balance sheets and pushed up liquidity rates. Notable losses were seen in BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, and AXA. On the data front, investors will look to German factory orders, UK house price figures, and French trade data for fresh direction. In premarket trading, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures hovered near the flatline.

荷兰的年通货膨胀率在2025年9月上升至3.3%，证实了初步估计，高于8月的2.8%，为5月以来的最高水平。主要的上升压力来自运输（2.2%对8月的1.1%）和室内装潢和家用电器（2%对0.9%）的通货膨胀急剧增加。食品和非酒精饮料（4.3%对4.2%）、住房和公用事业（4.7%对4.6%）以及餐馆和酒店（5.2%对1.3%）的通货膨胀率也有所上升。按月计算，消费者价格指数下降0.1%，与初步数据一致，这是自5月以来的首次下降，8月份上涨0.2%。与此同时，用于欧盟层面比较的不包括住房成本的协调消费者价格指数（HICP）显示，9月份的增长率从8月份的2.4%加速至3%。

The annual inflation rate in the Netherlands rose to 3.3% in September 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and up from 2.8% in August, marking the highest level since May. The main upward pressure came from a sharp increase in inflation for transport (2.2% vs 1.1% in August) and for upholstery and household appliances (2% vs 0.9%). Inflation also picked up for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.3% vs 4.2%), housing and utilities (4.7% vs 4.6%), and restaurants and hotels (5.2% vs 1.3%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.1%, in line with initial data, marking the first decline since May after a 0.2% gain in August. Meanwhile, the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which excludes housing costs and is used for EU-level comparisons, showed an acceleration to 3% in September from 2.4% in August.

周一，富时MIB指数下跌0.3%，收于43146点，追随欧洲股市的平静走势，因为市场评估了欧元区财政整顿的风险——法国新的政治危机。法国总理Lecornu在组建内阁数小时后辞职，因为反对派表示拒绝计划中的支出削减，引发了对负债累累的欧元区成员国债券的新一轮抛售。联合信贷银行和联合圣保罗银行分别下跌0.5%和1.5%。此外，锡耶纳银行股价下跌1.4%，此前该银行提议提名Anima Holding首席执行官Alessandro Melzi d'Eril担任Mediobanca的新任首席执行官（+2.4%），以组建意大利第三大银行。相比之下，Stellantis股价上涨3.4%，有报道称该公司计划在美国投资约100亿美元，以重新开放工厂并开发新的道奇和克莱斯勒车型。普睿司曼上涨1.7%，因预期指引上调，埃尼集团（+1.4%）和塞彭集团（+3%）因油价上涨而上涨。

The FTSE MIB lost 0.3% to close at 43,146 on Monday, tracking a muted session for European bourses as markets assessed risks to the Eurozone's fiscal consolidation fresh political crisis in France. French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned hours after forming a cabinet as opposition voiced their rejection of planned spending cuts, triggering fresh selling for bonds in heavily indebted Eurozone members. UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo fell 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Also, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena slipped 1.4% after proposing proposing Alessandro Melzi d'Eril, CEO of Anima Holding, as Mediobanca’s (+2.4%) new chief following their takeover to form Italy's third largest bank. In contrast, Stellantis jumped 3.4% amid reports it plans to invest about $10 billion in the US to reopen plants and develop new Dodge and Chrysler models. Prysmian rose 1.7% on expectations of a guidance upgrade, and Eni (+1.4%) and Saipem (+3%) gained on higher oil prices.