欧元/南非兰特 (EURZAR) 加自选

德国DAX指数周五小幅下跌，收于24500点左右，投资者在近期达到峰值后获利回吐，国防股在特朗普总统支持的中东和平协议后走弱。国防名称Hensoldt和Renk跌至指数底部，分别下跌4.2%和2.6%，Rheinmetall也下跌2%。MTU航空发动机公司（-3.4%）和西门子能源公司（-2.6%）也面临压力。与此同时，投资者仍然关注法国的政治局势和美国政府长期停摆，同时为下周第三季度财报季的开始做准备。在涨幅最大的股票中，拜耳和梅赛德斯-奔驰集团脱颖而出，分别上涨2.8%和2%。本周，DAX指数有望上涨0.7%。

Germany's DAX turned slightly negative to trade around 24,500 on Friday, as investors booked profits after recent peaks and defense stocks weakened following the Middle East peace deal backed by President Trump. Defense names Hensoldt and Renk slipped toward the bottom of the index, shedding 4.2% and 2.6%, with Rheinmetall also down 2%. MTU Aero Engines (-3.4%) and Siemens Energy (-2.6%) also faced pressure. Meanwhile, investors remained focused on the political situation in France and the prolonged US government shutdown, while bracing for the start of the Q3 earnings season next week. Among top gainers, Bayer and Mercedes-Benz Group stood out, rising 2.8% and 2%, respectively. For the week, the DAX was poised to book a 0.7% gain.

意大利10年期英国国债收益率徘徊在3.5%左右，略低于法国总理辞职扰乱市场后的3.6%的高点，因为投资者在欧洲进一步的政治行动中保持谨慎。市场正密切关注法国总统马克龙准备任命新总理，这标志着他任期内政府领导层的第六次更迭。标准普尔全球将于周五审查意大利的信用评级，市场预计在增长疲软抵消财政进展的情况下，“BBB+”评级和稳定前景将得以维持。在宏观方面，欧洲央行表示有意保持利率稳定，并表示目前的政策足以将中期通胀目标锚定在2%。

The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP hovered around 3.5%, holding slightly below the high of 3.6% after the French prime minister’s resignation rattled markets, as investors remained cautious amid further political moves in Europe. Markets are closely watching French President Macron as he prepares to appoint a new prime minister, marking the sixth change of government leadership during his tenure. S&P Global is set to review Italy’s credit rating on Friday, with markets expecting the “BBB+” rating and stable outlook to be maintained amid weak growth offsetting fiscal progress. On the macro front, the European Central Bank signaled its intention to keep interest rates steady, stating that current policy is sufficient to anchor the medium-term inflation target at 2%.

尽管美元走软，但兰特兑美元汇率小幅下跌至约17.3，从最近一年创下的17.1美元的峰值回落，原因是黄金因避险资产需求增加而历史性反弹后出现获利回吐。与此同时，投资者评估了糟糕的工业数据，显示8月份出现了第二个月的下降。从积极的方面来看，南非财政部表示，南非有望实现今年的主要财政目标，稳定公共债务，增加基本预算盈余。财政部长Enoch Godongwana将于11月12日提交年中财政审查报告。与此同时，南非储备银行行长Lesetja Kganyago于10月9日表示，央行和财政部已同意降低通胀目标，目标是3%至6%区间的底部，但具体时间仍在讨论中。Kganyago长期以来一直主张降低目标，认为目前的范围削弱了南非的经济竞争力。

The rand weakened slightly to roughly 17.3 per USD, retreating from recent one-year peaks of 17.1 per USD, despite a softer dollar, amid profit-taking following gold’s historic rally sparked by increased demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, investors assessed poor industrial data showing a second monthly decline in August. On a positive note, the National Treasury said South Africa is on track to meet its main fiscal targets this year, stabilizing public debt and boosting the primary budget surplus. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the mid-year fiscal review on 12 November. Meanwhile, SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on 9 October that the central bank and Treasury have agreed on lowering the inflation target, aiming at the bottom of its 3% to 6% range, though the timing remains under discussion. Kganyago has long advocated a lower target, arguing the current range undermines South Africa’s economic competitiveness.

周五早盘，米兰富时MIB指数上涨0.4%，收于43000点，部分弥补了前一交易日1.6%的跌幅，因为汽车股在近期暴跌后反弹。法拉利在前一天暴跌超过15%后上涨了1%以上，当时其修订后的全年和2030年指导低于市场预期，并包括削减其电动汽车销售目标。同行汽车制造商Stellantis上涨超过2%，而大多数银行股也上涨。不利方面，国防公司Leonardo下跌约2.6%，受美国破坏的和平协议在中东站稳脚跟的迹象影响。在数据方面，意大利8月份工业活动同比下降2.7%，这是自去年12月以来的最大跌幅，与0.5%的增长预测相悖。

Milan’s FTSE MIB rose 0.4% toward 43,000 in early trading on Friday, trimming part of the 1.6% loss from the previous session as auto stocks rebounded after a recent slump. Ferrari gained more than 1% after plunging over 15% the day before, when its revised full-year and 2030 guidance fell short of market expectations and included a cut to its EV sales targets. Peer automaker Stellantis jumped over 2%, while most banking stocks also traded higher. On the downside, defense firm Leonardo dropped around 2.6%, pressured by signs that a US-brokered peace deal is taking hold in the Middle East. On the data front, Italy’s industrial activity fell 2.7% year-on-year in August, marking the sharpest decline since last December and defying forecasts of a 0.5% gain.