土耳其里拉/南非兰特 (TRYZAR) 加自选

天然气和石油预测：关税风险和盈余前景上限上升。WTI和布伦特原油在阻力下挣扎，而天然气未能恢复到3.287美元以上；交易员关注关键支撑区以下的下跌。

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Tariff Risk and Surplus Outlook Cap Upside.WTI and Brent crude struggle under resistance, while natural gas fails to recover above $3.287; traders watch for breakdowns below key support zones.

欧元可能扩大涨幅；日元走强，但市场逆转风险依然存在。尽管主要货币对的修正运动似乎即将完成，但外汇市场仍面临普遍不确定性的压力。

Euro May Extend Gains; Yen Strengthens, but Market Reversal Risks Persist.The foreign exchange market remains under pressure from prevailing uncertainty, although corrective movements in major currency pairs appear to be nearing completion.

意大利10年期债券收益率升至3.5%，结束了连续两天的下跌，这得益于新宣布的美日贸易协定的缓解，该协定缓解了对全球关税升级的担忧，并重新点燃了人们对美国和欧盟之间达成类似协议的期望。尽管如此，市场情绪仍然谨慎。报道显示，欧盟特使正在准备应急措施，以防与特朗普总统的贸易谈判陷入僵局，因为他的政府在8月1日的最后期限之前采取了更激进的立场。投资者的注意力现在转移到周四的欧洲央行政策会议和欧元区最大经济体PMI数据的发布上。人们普遍预计，欧洲央行在连续八次降息后将保持利率稳定，因为官员们在贸易紧张局势持续、欧元坚挺和通胀疲软的情况下暂停评估前景。货币市场完全预计到年底将降息25个基点，9月份降息的可能性约为50%。

Italy's 10-year bond yield rose toward 3.5%, ending a two-day losing streak, driven by relief over the newly announced US-Japan trade agreement, which eased fears of escalating global tariffs and reignited expectations for a similar deal between the US and the EU. Still, market sentiment remains cautious. Reports indicate that EU envoys are preparing contingency measures in case trade negotiations with President Trump falter, as his administration takes a more aggressive stance ahead of the August 1 deadline. Investor focus now shifts to Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting and the release of flash PMI data from the eurozone’s largest economies. The ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady after eight straight cuts, as officials pause to assess the outlook amid lingering trade tensions, a firm euro, and weak inflation. Money markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by year-end, with about a 50% probability of it occurring in September.

恒生指数周二飙升408点，收于25538点，涨幅1.6%，连续第四个交易日上涨，达到近四年来的最高水平。这一激增是由广泛的行业增长和乐观情绪推动的，因为美国和中国官员计划下周在斯德哥尔摩举行会议，这是他们旨在延长关税休战的第三轮会谈。在特朗普总统宣布与日本达成贸易协议，包括对包括汽车在内的所有商品征收15%的关税后，美国期货的强劲上涨也提振了市场情绪。北京努力遏制激烈的价格战和西藏的一个大型水电大坝项目，加剧了看涨情绪。与此同时，据报道，中国股市的日成交量升至近五个月高点，而保证金融资达到近四个月来的最高点。科技股指数上涨2.5%，紧随其后的是消费股和金融股。表现最好的包括快手科技（7.0%）、腾讯（4.9%）、金蝶国际软件（4.4%）和美团（3.0%）。

The Hang Seng surged 408 points or 1.6% to close at 25,538 on Tuesday, rising for the fourth session and reaching its highest level in almost four years. The upsurge was driven by broad-based sector gains and optimism ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in Stockholm next week—their third round of talks aimed at extending a tariff truce. A strong rise in U.S. futures also boosted sentiment after President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan that includes a 15% tariff on all goods, including autos. Adding to bullish sentiment were Beijing’s efforts to curb intense price wars and a massive hydropower dam project in Tibet. Meantime, daily turnover in China’s equity markets reportedly rose to near five-month highs, while margin financing hit its highest in nearly four months. The tech index jumped 2.5%, followed by consumer and financial shares. Top performers included Kuaishou Tech (7.0%), Tencent (4.9%), Kingdee Intl. Software (4.4%), and Meituan (3.0%).