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高盛表示，布伦特原油价格可能会飙升至略高于90美元/桶。。高盛表示，布伦特原油价格在最近攀升至每桶76-77美元后，出现了每桶10美元左右的地缘政治风险溢价。在周三发布的一份报告中，该行表示，溢价反映了中东紧张局势加剧和潜在的供应中断。

Goldman Sachs says Brent crude oil could spike just above $90/bbl..Goldman Sachs says a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel has emerged in Brent crude prices, following the recent climb to $76–77/bbl. In a note released Wednesday, the bank said the premium reflects heightened Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions.

6月份，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率突破5.5，为8个月来的最高水平，此前Copom出人意料地公布了25？英国石油公司上调至15%，并发出即将暂停的信号，这提振了巴西的高实际利率溢价。Copom承诺评估过去紧缩政策的滞后影响，这使市场确信政策路径是可预测的，而经常账户赤字的改善和强劲的农业综合企业运输数据进一步支撑了货币。强劲的铁矿石和大豆价格是该国最大的出口收入者，扩大了贸易顺差，吸引了资本流入。与此同时，美联储决定将利率维持在四年来的最高水平，这限制了美元的走强，并因寻求收益的资金流入巴西当地债券而加剧。

The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.5 per USD in June, its strongest level in eight months, after Copom’s surprise 25?bp hike to 15% and its signal of an imminent pause bolstered Brazil’s high real-rate premium. Copom’s commitment to evaluate the lagged impact of past tightening has reassured markets of a predictable policy path, while an improving current-account deficit and robust agribusiness shipment data further underpinned the currency. Strong iron-ore and soybean prices, the country’s top export earners, widened the trade surplus and drew capital inflows. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates at a four-year high capped dollar strength and compounded on yield-seeking flows into Brazil’s local bonds.

巴西央行在6月份的会议上将其Selic利率上调25个基点至15%，理由是持续的通货膨胀和未固定的预期。董事会强调，在美国贸易和财政政策以及全球金融市场波动的推动下，外部环境高度不确定，这继续给新兴经济体带来压力。在国内，虽然经济活动和劳动力市场保持弹性，但最近的数据显示，整体和核心通胀高于目标，对2025年和2026年的预期也超过了目标。Copom对2026年通胀的预测为3.6%，反映了持续的通胀风险，包括强劲的服务业通胀、政策驱动的汇率压力和未固定的长期预期。委员会表示，这可能是当前周期的最后一次加息，等待对过去紧缩政策滞后效应的重新评估。然而，Copom强调，如果通胀不向目标趋同，它准备进一步调整政策。

The Central Bank of Brazil hiked its Selic rate by 25bps to 15% at its June meeting, citing persistent inflation and unanchored expectations. The Board highlighted a highly uncertain external environment, driven by US trade and fiscal policies and volatile global financial markets, which continue to weigh on emerging economies. Domestically, while economic activity and the labor market remain resilient, recent data show headline and core inflation above target, with expectations for 2025 and 2026 also exceeding the goal. Copom’s projection for 2026 inflation stands at 3.6%, reflecting ongoing inflationary risks, including strong services inflation, policy-driven exchange rate pressures, and unanchored long-term expectations. The committee signaled this may be the last hike in the current cycle, pending a reassessment of the lagging effects of past tightening. However, Copom emphasized its readiness to adjust policy further if inflation does not converge toward target.

巴西利率决定高于预期（14.75%）：实际（15%）。巴西利率决定高于预期（14.75%）：实际（15%）

Brazil Interest Rate Decision above expectations (14.75%): Actual (15%).Brazil Interest Rate Decision above expectations (14.75%): Actual (15%)