英镑/美元 (GBPUSD) 加自选

英镑升至1.354美元，为约两周来的最高点，因美日贸易协议后风险偏好有所改善。该协议包括15%的关税，避免了之前计划的更严厉的25%的税率，并为美国设立了5500亿美元的投资基金。特朗普总统称其为“对每个人都有好处”，提振了全球贸易情绪。在英国，人们的注意力转向了关键的经济数据。预计Flash PMI将显示六个月来最温和的制造业收缩和近一年来最强劲的服务业增长。在炎热天气的帮助下，零售额预计也将反弹。与此同时，英国6月份的预算赤字为207亿英镑，是1993年以来第二高的6月份数字。受通胀挂钩金边债券成本的推动，利息支付达到164亿英镑。借贷的激增引发了人们的猜测，即财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯可能需要在秋季增税。

The British pound rose to $1.354, its highest in about two weeks, as risk appetite improved following a US-Japan trade deal. The agreement includes a 15% tariff, avoiding the harsher 25% rate previously planned, and features a $550 billion investment fund for the US. President Trump called it “a great deal for everybody,” boosting global trade sentiment. In the UK, attention turns to key economic data. Flash PMIs are expected to show the mildest manufacturing contraction in six months and the strongest services growth in nearly a year. Retail sales are also projected to rebound, helped by hot weather. Meanwhile, the UK posted a £20.7 billion budget deficit for June, marking the second-highest June figure since 1993. Interest payments hit £16.4 billion, driven by inflation-linked gilt costs. This surge in borrowing raises speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may need to raise taxes in the autumn.

英国10年期国债收益率攀升至4.61%以上，从周二的两周低点4.575%反弹，部分受日本市场波动的影响。有报道称，尽管最近美日达成了贸易协定，但日本首相石破茂可能会辞职。尽管如此，该协议仍引发了人们的乐观情绪，即美国和欧盟之间可能会达成较低的关税协议。在英国，人们的注意力转向了经济数据：预计快速PMI将显示六个月来最温和的制造业收缩和近一年来最强劲的服务业增长。在炎热天气的支持下，零售销售也预计会反弹。与此同时，英国6月份的预算赤字达到207亿英镑，是1993年以来第二高的6月份数字。这些数据加剧了人们对财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯可能需要在秋季增税的担忧。在货币政策方面，市场预计9月份将降息25个基点，到年底再次降息的可能性约为90%。

The UK 10-year gilt yield climbed above 4.61%, rebounding from a two-week low of 4.575% on Tuesday, partly influenced by volatility in Japanese markets. Reports suggest Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may resign, despite the recent US-Japan trade agreement. Still, the deal has fueled optimism that a lower-tariff agreement between the US and EU could follow. In the UK, attention turns to economic data: flash PMIs are expected to show the softest manufacturing contraction in six months and the strongest services growth in nearly a year. Retail sales are also projected to rebound, supported by hot weather. Meanwhile, the UK’s June budget deficit hit £20.7 billion, the second-highest June figure since 1993. The data has heightened concerns that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may need to raise taxes in the autumn. On the monetary policy front, markets expect a quarter-point rate cut in September and price in about a 90% chance of another by year-end.

受对美国贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪提振，富时100指数周三上涨，连续第二次创下9000点以上的收盘纪录。在美国和日本达成一项征收15%关税的贸易协议后，市场情绪有所改善，避免了之前计划的25%的关税。该协议还包括一项5500亿美元的美国投资基金。Informa领涨，上涨3.5%，此前该公司将全年基本收入增长预测上调至6%以上，这得益于上半年20%的收入增长和强于预期的利润率。该公司还宣布了1.5亿英镑的额外股票回购。阿斯利康（2.5%）、壳牌（1%）、英国石油公司（1%），葛兰素史克（1.6%）和帝亚吉欧（1.7%）等主要股票也支撑了该指数。不利的一面是，Fresnillo在重申其白银产量指导后下跌超过3.5%，但注意到Silverstream的贡献较弱，其同名矿山的矿石品位较低。

The FTSE 100 traded higher on Wednesday, building on a second consecutive record close above 9,000 points, lifted by optimism over progress in US trade talks. Sentiment improved after the US and Japan reached a trade agreement that imposes 15% tariffs, avoiding a previously planned 25% rate. The deal also includes a $550 billion fund for US investments. Informa led gains, jumping 3.5%, after upgrading its full-year underlying revenue growth forecast to over 6%, driven by 20% revenue growth and stronger-than-expected margins in the first half. The firm also announced £150 million in additional share buybacks. Major stocks like AstraZeneca (2.5%), Shell (1%), BP (1%), GSK (1.6%), and Diageo (1.7%) also supported the index. On the downside, Fresnillo fell over 3.5% after reaffirming its silver production guidance but noting weaker contributions from Silverstream and lower ore grades at its namesake mine.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国和中国官员将于下周在斯德哥尔摩举行会议，就延长目前定于8月12日的贸易协议最后期限进行谈判。他补充说，会谈还将解决贸易关系再平衡问题。瑞典首相Ulf Kristersson对会谈表示欢迎，称其对全球经济具有重要意义。另外，中国大使馆发言人证实，双方已经敲定了特朗普总统和Xi达成共识的实施细节。北京已同意解除对稀土和磁铁的出口禁令，而华盛顿将恢复芯片软件、飞机发动机和其他关键商品的运输。如果不延期，美国出口商品的关税可能会升至145%，中国商品的关税将升至125%。贝森特还表示，将讨论更广泛的问题，如中国的出口依赖。与此同时，中国暂停了对杜邦本土子公司的反垄断调查，这被视为一种善意的姿态。

U.S. and Chinese officials are set to meet in Stockholm next week to negotiate a possible extension of the trade deal deadline, currently set for August 12, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He added that the talks will also address rebalancing trade relations. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson welcomed the talks, calling them significant for the global economy. Separately, a Chinese embassy spokesperson confirmed both sides had finalized implementation details of a consensus reached by Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Beijing has agreed to lift its export ban on rare earths and magnets, while Washington will resume shipments of chip software, aircraft engines, and other key goods. Without an extension, tariffs could rise to 145% on U.S. exports and 125% on Chinese goods. Bessent also said broader issues, such as China’s export dependence, would be discussed. Meanwhile, China suspended its antitrust probe into DuPont's local unit, seen as a goodwill gesture.