英镑/美元 (GBPUSD) 加自选

周五，美元指数保持在99.3以上，本周有望上涨近2%，这是一年来最强劲的单周涨幅，受到日元和欧元大幅疲软的支撑。本周，在财政鸽派Sanae Takaichi赢得日本领导人竞选后，日元兑美元汇率将下跌近4%，这增强了人们对增加支出和宽松货币政策的预期。与此同时，在法国的政治动荡中，欧元兑美元汇率下跌了约1.5%，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙继续在不到两年的时间里寻找他的第六任总理。在美国，在参议院未能达成融资协议后，政府停摆延长至第九天，推迟了可能指导美联储降息前景的关键经济数据。市场目前认为，本月降息25个基点的可能性为95%，而12月加息的可能性已从90%降至80%。

The dollar index held above 99.3 on Friday and was on track to rise nearly 2% for the week, marking its strongest weekly advance in a year, supported by sharp weakness in the yen and euro. The yen is poised to drop almost 4% against the dollar this week after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s leadership race, reinforcing expectations of higher spending and loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, the euro has fallen about 1.5% versus the dollar amid political turmoil in France, where President Emmanuel Macron continues to search for his sixth prime minister in less than two years. In the US, the government shutdown extended into its ninth day after the Senate failed to reach a funding deal, delaying key economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. Markets now see a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this month, while odds for a December move have eased to 80% from 90%.