英镑/瑞郎 (GBPCHF) 加自选

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率上涨近1%，至0.816左右，接近2011年高点，因为美元在美中贸易紧张局势再次加剧的情况下走弱，引发了人们对全球经济衰退的担忧。自4月2日关税公告以来，法郎已飙升超过7%，跻身表现最佳的主要货币之列。投资者越来越多地寻求法郎的庇护，在全球贸易持续不确定性和唐纳德·特朗普总统政府不稳定的政策信号下，法郎的避险地位吸引了投资者。与此同时，货币的持续走强和由此产生的通缩压力提高了人们对瑞士国家银行（SNB）可能考虑重新引入负利率的预期。瑞士央行经常干预货币市场以遏制法郎的过度升值，但考虑到华盛顿对此类行动的反对，它现在更加谨慎。

The Swiss franc appreciated nearly 1% to around 0.816 per USD, holding close to 2011-highs, as the dollar weakened amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, stoking fears of a global recession. Since the April 2 tariff announcement, the franc has surged over 7%, ranking among the top-performing major currencies. Investors have increasingly sought refuge in the franc, drawn by its safe-haven status amid persistent global trade uncertainty and erratic policy signals from President Donald Trump’s administration. Meanwhile, the ongoing strength of the currency and the resulting deflationary pressures have raised expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider reintroducing negative interest rates. The SNB frequently intervenes in currency markets to curb excessive appreciation of the franc, but it now exercises greater caution, mindful of Washington’s disapproval of such actions.

英国通货膨胀率下降。根据Forex Factory的数据，消费者价格指数（CPI）读数低于预期：虽然分析师预测从之前的2.8%同比下降至2.7%，但实际CPI数字为2.6%。

Inflation in the UK Has Fallen.According to Forex Factory, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in below expectations: while analysts had forecast a decline to 2.7% year-on-year from the previous 2.8%, the actual CPI figure was 2.6%.

2月份英国DCLG房价指数（同比）高于预期（5.1%）：实际（5.4%）。2月份英国DCLG房价指数（同比）高于预期（5.1%）：实际（5.4%）

United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) above expectations (5.1%) in February: Actual (5.4%).United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) above expectations (5.1%) in February: Actual (5.4%)

英国10年期国债收益率跌至4.6%以下，为一周多来的最低水平，因为投资者在通胀低于预期和经济紧张迹象出现后加大了对英格兰银行降息的押注。3月份CPI同比放缓至2.6%，低于预期，而月度通胀率降至0.3%。英国央行密切关注的核心服务通胀率小幅降至4.7%。这是连续第二个月下降，在4月份账单大幅上涨之前，为家庭提供了一些缓解。与此同时，英国企业在3月份削减了78000多个工作岗位，这是疫情以来的最大降幅，因为他们为工资税和最低工资成本的上涨做了准备。这些数据共同强化了人们对英国央行可能更快降息以支持经济的预期。交易员现在预计到年底将降息86个基点，并预计12月第四季度降息的可能性超过50%。

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell below 4.6%, the lowest in over a week, as investors ramped up bets on Bank of England rate cuts following softer-than-expected inflation and signs of economic strain. March CPI slowed to 2.6% year-on-year, below forecasts, while monthly inflation eased to 0.3%. Core services inflation, closely watched by the BoE, edged down to 4.7%. It’s the second straight monthly drop, offering some relief to households ahead of a sharp rise in April bills. At the same time, UK businesses cut over 78,000 jobs in March — the largest decline since the pandemic — as they prepared for a rise in payroll taxes and minimum wage costs. Together, the data reinforced expectations that the BoE may ease rates sooner to support the economy. Traders now price in 86 basis points of cuts by year-end, and see more than a 50% chance of a fourth quarter-point cut in December.