英镑/人民币 (GBPCNY) 加自选

周四，英国10年期国债收益率降至4.631%，此前低于预期的PMI数据提振了对英格兰银行降息的押注。综合和服务业PMI均未达到预期，表明私营部门增长将大幅放缓。制造业表现略好，收缩速度比预期的要快。尽管如此，总体情况表明经济疲软。尽管投入价格压力有所增加，但这些数据以及劳动力市场疲软可能会促使英国央行将增长置于通胀之上。市场现在期待即将公布的零售销售数据，预计将在温暖天气的支持下出现反弹。与此同时，由于对潜在的美欧贸易协议持乐观态度，全球风险情绪有所改善。报道显示，双方都在努力对大多数进口商品征收15%的关税，欧盟正在推动将汽车纳入其中。特朗普总统证实，他不会低于这一水平，并暗示一些关税可能会在8月1日的最后期限前升至50%。

UK 10-year gilt yield eased to 4.631% on Thursday after weaker-than-expected PMI data boosted bets on Bank of England rate cuts. Both the composite and services PMIs missed forecasts, signaling a sharper slowdown in private sector growth. Manufacturing performed slightly better, with the rate of contraction easing more than expected. Still, the overall picture points to a weakening economy. The data, along with a softer labor market, could prompt the BoE to prioritize growth over inflation, despite a pickup in input price pressures. Markets now look to upcoming retail sales figures, expected to show a rebound supported by warm weather. Meanwhile, global risk sentiment improved on optimism over a potential US-EU trade deal. Reports suggest both sides are working toward a 15% tariff on most imports, with the EU pushing to include cars. President Trump confirmed he won’t go below that level and hinted some tariffs could rise to 50% by the August 1 deadline.