欧元/人民币 (EURCNY) 加自选

早间出价：沃尔玛削减华尔街，欧元关注德国投票。Mike Dolan展望美国和全球市场的未来

Morning Bid: Walmart clips Wall St, euro eyes German vote.A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

德国10年期债券收益率跌至2.5%以下，此前数据显示欧元区2月份商业活动仍停滞不前，加剧了人们对经济长期停滞的担忧。这加剧了投资者对欧洲央行降息的预期，货币市场目前预计今年将加息78个基点，高于周四的74个基点。与此同时，投资者正密切关注周日的德国大选。民意调查显示，由弗里德里希·默茨领导的保守派基民盟/基社盟集团有望获胜，但在持续的经济挑战中，可能需要联盟伙伴来执政。交易员还权衡了地缘政治风险，尤其是在美国表示计划在与俄罗斯（不包括乌克兰和欧洲）进行谈判的同时缩减对乌克兰的支持之际。此外，美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会从4月2日开始对汽车、半导体和药品进口征收25%的关税，此举可能会对欧洲汽车制造商产生重大影响。

Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell below 2.5% after data showed Eurozone business activity remained stagnant in February, reinforcing concerns of prolonged economic stagnation. This fueled investor expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts, with money markets now pricing in 78 basis points of easing this year, up from 74 basis points on Thursday. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching Germany’s general election on Sunday. Polls suggest the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, is poised to win but will likely need coalition partners to govern amid ongoing economic challenges. Traders also weighed geopolitical risks, particularly as the US signaled plans to scale back support for Ukraine while engaging in negotiations with Russia—excluding both Ukraine and Europe. Additionally, US President Trump indicated he would likely impose a 25% tariff on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports starting April 2, a move that could heavily impact European carmakers.

欧元兑美元汇率徘徊在1.05美元以下，将连续第三周下跌，因为投资者为周日德国大选做准备，并评估了欧洲最大经济体的最新采购经理人指数数据。民意调查显示，由弗里德里希·默茨领导的保守派基民盟/基社盟集团可能会获胜，但需要联盟伙伴在经济停滞的情况下组建政府。在经济方面，2月份欧元区私营部门活动几乎没有增长，采购经理人指数与1月份持平，为50.2，低于预期的50.5。与此同时，交易员权衡了持续的地缘政治紧张局势，特别是在美国表示计划在与俄罗斯（不包括乌克兰和欧洲）进行谈判的同时减少对乌克兰的支持之后。此外，美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会从4月2日开始对汽车、半导体和药品进口征收25%的关税，此举可能会对欧洲汽车制造商产生重大影响。

The euro hovered just below $1.05, heading for its third consecutive weekly loss against the USD, as investors braced for Germany’s general election on Sunday and assessed the latest PMI data from Europe’s largest economies. Polls suggest the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, is likely to win but will need coalition partners to form a government amid economic stagnation. On the economic front, Eurozone private sector activity showed little growth in February, with the PMI remaining unchanged from January at 50.2 and falling short of the expected 50.5. Meanwhile, traders weighed ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly after the US signaled plans to reduce support for Ukraine while engaging in negotiations with Russia, excluding both Ukraine and Europe. Additionally, US President Trump indicated he would likely impose a 25% tariff on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports starting April 2, a move that could significantly impact European carmakers.

意大利的年通货膨胀率从前两个月的1.3%上升到2025年1月的1.5%，与初步估计一致。这标志着自2023年10月以来消费者价格的最大涨幅，主要是受监管能源成本的大幅上涨（27.5%对12月的12.7%），此前由于俄罗斯停止向欧洲输送天然气，导致部分欧洲国家的电价上涨，从而引发了液化天然气价格的飙升。与此同时，非监管能源价格的下降速度放缓（-3%对-4.2%）。娱乐、文化和个人护理服务的价格上涨速度更快（3.3%对3.1%），尽管这在一定程度上被交通相关服务成本的缓慢增长（2.5%对3.6%）所抵消。与此同时，1月份的年度核心通胀率稳定在1.8%。按月计算，CPI上涨了0.6%，这是自2022年10月以来的最大涨幅，比12月的0.1%有所加速。

The annual inflation rate in Italy rose to 1.5% in January 2025, up from 1.3% in the previous two months, in line with preliminary estimates. This marked the sharpest increase in consumer prices since October 2023, largely driven by a sharp rise in regulated energy costs (27.5% vs. 12.7% in December), following higher power prices across select European countries due to the halt in Russian gas flows to Europe, which triggered a surge in LNG prices. At the same time, the decline in non-regulated energy prices slowed (-3% vs. -4.2%). Prices for recreational, cultural, and personal care services rose at a faster pace (3.3% vs. 3.1%), though this was partly offset by a slower increase in transport-related service costs (2.5% vs. 3.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation remained stable at 1.8% in January. On a monthly basis, the CPI jumped 0.6%, marking the largest increase since October 2022, accelerating from a 0.1% rise in December.