澳元/人民币 (AUDCNY) 加自选

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China’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to around 1.70% on Friday, as investors sought safer assets amid stalled US-China trade negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked on Thursday that talks with China are currently “a bit stalled” and may require direct intervention from President Trump and President Xi Jinping to make progress. Although a temporary truce was reached two weeks ago, momentum has since waned. Meanwhile, Washington has tightened export restrictions, effectively barring certain American firms from selling key technologies to China. On the domestic front, investors are closely awaiting upcoming PMI data scheduled for release over the weekend, which is expected to provide important insights into the economic health of the world’s second-largest economy.

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The offshore yuan edged lower to around 7.18 per dollar on Friday, heading for a weekly decline as investor caution prevailed amid stalled US-China trade negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that talks with China are “a bit stalled” and may require direct involvement from President Trump and President Xi Jinping to advance. While a temporary truce was reached two weeks ago, momentum has since faded. Market sentiment was further dampened by Washington’s decision to tighten export restrictions, effectively barring certain US firms from selling key technologies to China. Elsewhere, adding to investor concerns was the US appeals court reinstating President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, overturning an earlier ruling that had deemed them unlawful. On the domestic front, investors await upcoming PMI data scheduled for release over the weekend, which is expected to shed light on the economic health of the world’s second-largest economy.

澳大利亚4月份零售额下降0.1%，受服装需求疲软影响。澳大利亚4月份零售额意外下降了-0.1%，低于0.3%的预期。与2024年4月相比，销售额每年增长3.8%/

Australia retail sales down -0.1% mom in April, weighed by weak clothing demand.Australia's retail sales turnover unexpectedly declined by -0.1% mom in April, missing expectations for a 0.3% mom rise. On an annual basis, sales were up 3.8% compared to April 2024/

周五，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.26%左右，触及两周多来的最低水平，投资者正在评估最新的经济数据。4月份零售额意外下降，原因是不合时宜的温暖天气——这减少了对冬季服装的需求——以及百货商店促销活动的减少，突显出消费者日益谨慎。本周早些时候，数据还显示，4月份的月度CPI略高于预期，尽管与前两个月持平，为2024年11月以来的最低水平。尽管借贷成本降低，通胀缓解，但家庭支出仍然疲软，4月份的数据表明第二季度开局疲软。这一持续疲软促使澳大利亚储备银行在2月份首次降息后，于本月早些时候将利率下调25个基点至3.85%。市场目前预计今年将至少再降息三次，这可能会使现金利率降至3.10%。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.26% on Friday, hitting its lowest level in over two weeks, as investors assessed the latest economic data. Retail sales unexpectedly declined in April, driven by unseasonably warm weather—which reduced demand for winter clothing—and fewer promotional events at department stores, highlighting growing consumer caution. Earlier this week, data also revealed that the monthly CPI came in slightly higher than expected in April, although it remained unchanged from the previous two months and marked the lowest level since November 2024. Despite lower borrowing costs and easing inflation, household spending remains subdued, with the April data suggesting a soft start to Q2. This persistent weakness prompted the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.85% earlier this month, after an initial rate cut in February. Markets are now pricing in at least three additional rate cuts this year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 3.10%.