加元/人民币 (CADCNY) 加自选

在美元贬值的支撑下，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.22左右，创四个月新高。美元的下跌主要是由于对美国经济的持续担忧，而唐纳德·特朗普总统不可预测的贸易政策加剧了这种担忧。特朗普最初承诺将钢铁和铝的关税提高一倍至50%，并警告称，如果加拿大进行报复，他将采取进一步措施，但几小时后他改变了立场。这一逆转加深了市场的不确定性，加剧了人们对更广泛贸易中断的担忧。在中国，政府公布了加大财政刺激力度以促进经济增长的计划，包括将财政赤字目标提高到GDP的4%，并在2025年发行1.3万亿日元的超长期债券。在货币政策方面，在中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示任何宽松政策都将“在适当的时候”发生后，交易员们降低了对立即降息的预期

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 7.22 per dollar, reaching a four-month high, supported by a depreciating US dollar. The dollar's decline was largely driven by ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy, exacerbated by President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies. Trump initially pledged to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% and warned of further measures if Canada retaliated, only to reverse his position just hours later. This reversal deepened market uncertainty and heightened fears of broader trade disruptions. In China, the government unveiled plans to ramp up fiscal stimulus to bolster growth, including raising the fiscal deficit target to 4% of GDP and issuing ¥1.3 trillion in ultra-long-term bonds for 2025. On the monetary policy front, traders scaled back expectations for immediate rate cuts after People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that any easing would occur "at an appropriate time."

周三，上证综指和深证成份股指数在平稳线上波动，投资者在两会结束后等待北京方面的进一步政策信号。北京将经济增长目标保持在“5%左右”，同时将财政赤字目标设定为GDP的4%，创下历史新高。它还将消费者通胀目标降至2%，并旨在将城市失业率保持在5.5%左右。2025年的预算表明，在国内需求疲软、持续通缩压力以及与美国贸易紧张局势加剧的情况下，政府将增加支出以支持经济增长。科技股是亮点之一，Hygon Information飙升5.3%，科华数据上涨10%，上海Athub上涨3.5%。

The Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indexes fluctuated around the flatline on Wednesday as investors awaited further policy signals from Beijing following the conclusion of the Two Sessions annual meetings. Beijing maintained its economic growth target at “around 5%” while setting a record-high fiscal deficit target of 4% of GDP. It also lowered its consumer inflation target to 2% and aimed to keep urban unemployment around 5.5%. The 2025 budget signaled increased government spending to support economic growth amid weak domestic demand, persistent deflationary pressures, and rising trade tensions with the US. Technology stocks were among the bright spots, with Hygon Information surging 5.3%, Kehua Data jumping 10%, and Shanghai Athub gaining 3.5%.

加元在跌破1.45美元后反弹至1.44美元左右，因宽松的贸易措施提供了缓解。安大略省暂停对美国出口电力征收25%的附加费，特朗普总统表示他正在重新考虑对加拿大钢铁和铝征收双倍关税的提议，这减轻了加拿大出口商的直接成本压力。这些发展有助于通过降低进一步报复性关税和贸易中断的风险来支持加元。然而，货币仍受到疲软的就业报告的压力——仅增加了约1000个职位，而预期为20000个——以及加拿大央行进一步降息的温和前景，再加上新当选总理马克·卡尼领导下的未来贸易谈判仍存在不确定性，卡尼对维持关税直至“美国人表示尊重”的强硬立场使长期政策方向受到质疑。

The Canadian dollar rebounded to around 1.44 USD after having fallen past 1.45 USD, as easing trade measures provided relief. Ontario’s suspension of a planned 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. and President Trump’s indication that he is reconsidering his proposal to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum have reduced immediate cost pressures on Canadian exporters. These developments have helped support the loonie by lowering the risk of further retaliatory tariffs and trade disruptions. However, the currency remains pressured by a weak jobs report—adding only about 1,000 positions against an expectation of 20,000—and a dovish outlook for further Bank of Canada rate cuts, compounded by lingering uncertainty over future trade negotiations under newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose hardline stance on maintaining tariffs until “Americans show us respect” leaves long-term policy direction in doubt.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周二下跌0.5%，收于24248点，触及四个月低点，因美国和加拿大贸易紧张局势升级对加拿大股市造成严重压力。这一下降源于特朗普总统决定将加拿大钢铁和铝的关税提高一倍至50%，并威胁要提高汽车零部件关税，除非加拿大取消对乳制品和其他商品的保护性关税。这些措施增加了供应链中断的风险，降低了工业、金融和运输等关键行业的出口前景。尽管安大略省暂停对美国出口征收25%的电力附加费的计划提供了短暂的缓解，但进一步报复行动的前景让投资者为企业收益下降做好了准备。加拿大皇家银行、道明银行和蒙特利尔银行等主要金融机构股价下跌2%至2.6%，而Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold、Wheaton Precious Metals和Franco-Nevada等矿业权重股股价飙升1.4%至3.4%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.5% to close at 24,248 on Tuesday, reaching four-month lows as escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions press heavily on Canadian equities. This decline stems from President Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% and his threat to raise auto parts duties unless Canada retracts its protective tariffs on dairy and other goods. These measures have increased the risk of disrupted supply chains and reduced export prospects across key sectors such as industrials, financials, and transportation. Although Ontario’s suspension of a planned 25% electricity surcharge on exports to the U.S. offered brief relief, the prospect of further retaliatory actions has investors bracing for lower corporate earnings. Major financial institutions like RBC, TD Bank, and BMO declined between 2% and 2.6%, while mining heavyweights including Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Franco-Nevada surged 1.4% to 3.4%.