加元/新加坡元 (CADSGD) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周二上涨0.8%，收于24068点，表现优于美国同行，因为投资者意外地接受了较低的通胀，3月份的年通胀率从2月份的2.6%降至2.3%，远低于市场预期和加拿大银行的预测。这一显著下降支持了更宽松的货币政策的前景，而特朗普总统对拟议的25%汽车关税的临时豁免的可能性进一步增强了加拿大制造商及其供应链的前景。Shopify和Celestica等对信用敏感的科技巨头领涨，分别上涨2.2%和2.8%，加拿大皇家银行、道明银行、布鲁克菲尔德银行、蒙特利尔银行和丰业银行等金融机构上涨0.5%至1.1%。主要矿业股Agnico Eagle Mines和Wheaton Precious Metals分别上涨2.5%和1.9%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.8% to close at 24,068 on Tuesday, outperforming its U.S. counterparts as investors embraced unexpectedly cooler inflation, with the annual rate falling to 2.3% in March from 2.6% in February—well below both market expectations and the Bank of Canada's forecast. This notable decline supports the outlook for more accommodative monetary policy, while the potential for temporary exemptions from the proposed 25% auto tariffs by President Trump further enhances the prospects for Canadian manufacturers and their supply chains. Credit-sensitive tech giants like Shopify and Celestica led the gains with increases of 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively, and financial institutions such as RBC, TD Bank, Brookfield, BMO, and Scotiabank advanced between 0.5% and 1.1%. Major mining equities Agnico Eagle Mines and Wheaton Precious Metals added 2.5% and 1.9%.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率升至3.15%以上，扭转了最近从4月11日的11周高点3.27%的大幅回落，因为投资者在加拿大央行周三利率决定之前吸收了最新的国内通胀数据。随着3月份的年通货膨胀率从2月份的2.6%降至2.3%，削弱了市场预期和央行2.5%的预测，越来越多的迹象表明，在停止消费税和HST减免引发0.6个百分点的飙升后，通货膨胀正在正常化。美国贸易紧张局势升级和衰退风险上升打压了全球情绪，削弱了对美国国债的需求。特朗普总统在关税问题上发出的复杂信号——提议豁免汽车进口，同时对半导体和药品征收新税——加剧了不确定性，促使投资者分散对美国资产的投资，并导致加拿大收益率面临上行压力。

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 3.15%, paring the recent sharp retreat from eleven-week high of 3.27% seen April 11th, as investors absorbed the latest domestic inflation data ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. With the annual inflation rate falling to 2.3% in March from 2.6% in February, undercutting both market expectations and the central bank’s forecast of 2.5%, there are growing indications that inflation is normalizing after a 0.6 percentage point surge triggered by the cessation of GST and HST breaks. Escalating U.S. trade tensions and rising recession risks have weighed on global sentiment, weakening demand for U.S. Treasuries. President Trump’s mixed signals on tariffs—proposing exemptions for auto imports while pursuing new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals—have fueled uncertainty, prompting investors to diversify away from U.S. assets and contributing to upward pressure on Canadian yields.

加元在1.39美元附近停止反弹，接近4月11日创下的五个月高点1.387美元，因为对加拿大银行的温和预期和美元的温和反弹抑制了进一步的涨幅。加拿大3月份的年通货膨胀率从2月份的2.6%降至2.3%，低于市场预期和加拿大银行2.5%的预测，并标志着在商品及服务税和HST减免结束引发0.6个百分点的上涨后，预期的正常化开始。与此同时，在特朗普总统免除关键技术产品的互惠关税，以及有报道称其25%的汽车进口税可能暂停后，美元最近的暴跌同样停滞不前，缓解了人们对即将到来的衰退风险的担忧。然而，在美国商务部对半导体和药品进口进行国家安全调查之际，人们仍然保持谨慎。

The Canadian dollar halted its rally near $1.39, close to its five-month high of $1.387 recorded on April 11th, as dovish expectations for the Bank of Canada and a modest rebound in the US dollar have tempered further gains. Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 2.3% in March, down from 2.6% in February, undercutting both market expectations and the Bank of Canada's forecast of 2.5%, and signaling the beginning of the anticipated normalization following a 0.6 percentage point rise triggered by the end of GST and HST breaks. At the same time, the U.S. dollar’s recent plunge has similarly stalled after President Trump's move to exempt key technology products from reciprocal tariffs and reports of a potential pause in his 25% auto import levies, eased concerns of imminent recession risks. However, caution persists amid a national security investigation by the U.S. Commerce Department into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.

加拿大制造业销售额环比增长0.2%，达到72加元。2025年2月，销售额达到10亿美元，好于最初预期的0.2%的下降，这是连续第五个月的增长，也是自2023年9月以来的最高水平。初级金属（+8.3%）和化学产品（+6.7%）子行业推动了销售额的增长，而石油和煤炭产品销售额（-5.2%）下降幅度最大。四个省份的制造业销售额激增，安大略省和魁北克省增幅最大，阿尔伯塔省降幅最大。与2024年2月相比，总销售额增长了2.1%。

Manufacturing sales in Canada rose 0.2% month-over-month to CAD 72. billion in February 2025, better than initial expectations of a 0.2% fall, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases and the highest level of sales since September 2023. The primary metal (+8.3%) and chemical product (+6.7%) subsectors drove the rise in sales while petroleum and coal product sales (-5.2%) posted the largest decline. Manufacturing sales surged in four provinces, with Ontario and Quebec showing the largest increases and Alberta the largest decline. Compared to February 2024, total sales rose 2.1%.