加元/日元 (CADJPY) 加自选

每周底线：特朗普总统、国王和加拿大央行。加拿大股市在查尔斯国王访问加拿大议会开幕式的那一周表现最佳，这是自1977年以来君主首次访问。多伦多证交所飙升，尽管这与皇室访问关系不大，但在特朗普总统宣布将推迟对欧盟征收关税的最后期限，以便有更多时间进行谈判后，市场情绪有所改善。

The Weekly Bottom Line: President Trump, the King, and the BoC.Canadian equities were certainly on their best behaviour the week of King Charles' visit to open Canadian Parliament – a first for a monarch since 1977. The TSX surged, although this had little to do with the royal visit, but rather improved sentiment after President Trump's announcement that the deadline for punishing tariffs on the European Union would be pushed back to allow more time for negotiations.

加拿大央行 在关键贸易和劳动力市场更新之前保持利率不变。我们预计，加拿大央行将在周三放弃降息，这是继4月份连续七次降息后的又一次最后决定。

BoC to Leave Rates Unchanged Ahead of Key Trade and Labour Market Updates.We expect the Bank of Canada will forego an interest rate cut on Wednesday in another close call following April's pause after seven consecutive cuts.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五小幅下跌0.1%，收于26175点，在周三创下历史新高后第二天小幅回落。下降之际，强于预期的经济数据强化了加拿大央行将在下周会议上保持利率稳定的预期。加拿大第一季度国内生产总值年化增长率为2.2%，超过了1.7%的增长预测。然而，大部分扩张是由出口和商业库存的前期增加推动的，部分原因是对美国潜在关税的预期，而在持续的经济不确定性和高利率的滞后影响下，国内需求仍然疲软。稳健的数据促使利率交易员加大了对暂停宽松政策的押注。在繁忙的财报周之后，银行股涨跌互现：加拿大皇家银行、加拿大帝国商业银行和加拿大丰业银行各上涨约0.5%，而道明银行则小幅下跌。本周，多伦多证交所上涨0.6%。

The S&P/TSX Composite edged lower by 0.1% to close at the 26,175 mark on Friday, pulling back slightly for second day after hitting a record high on Wednesday. The decline came as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week. Canada’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the first quarter, outpacing forecasts of 1.7% growth. However, much of the expansion was driven by a front-loading of exports and business inventories—partly in anticipation of potential US tariffs—while domestic demand remained soft amid ongoing economic uncertainty and the lagging effects of high interest rates. The solid data prompted rate traders to increase bets on a pause in policy easing. Bank stocks were mixed following a busy earnings week: RBC, CIBC, and Scotiabank each rose around 0.5%, while TD Bank edged lower. For the week, the TSX advanced 0.6%.

加元兑美元汇率突破1.38，接近5月26日触及的7个月高点1.37，强劲的数据推动市场削减加拿大银行的降息幅度。加拿大第一季度GDP年化增长率为2.2%，远高于1.7%的预期增长率。尽管大部分支持归功于美国关税前交货的强劲出口和库存，但这一结果仍支持其他表明加拿大经济强劲的数据。零售额连续第二个月大幅增长。由于削减后的平均核心利率意外升至一年来的最高水平，4月份的通胀数据放大了对中国央行不那么温和的押注。

The Canadian dollar strengthened past the 1.38 per USD mark, approaching the seven-month high 1.37 touched on May 26th as strong data drove markets to pare the magnitude of rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. The Canadian GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2% on first quarter, well above estimates of a 1.7% increase. Even though most of the support was owed to strong exports and inventories on front-loading of deliveries ahead of US tariffs, the result still backed other data pointing to robustness in the Canadian economy. Consistently, retail sales expanded sharply for a second month. Bet of a less-dovish BoC were magnified by the hot inflation print for April, as the trimmed-mean core rate unexpectedly rose to its highest in one year.