美元/加元 (USDCAD) 加自选

联邦公开市场委员会按预期维持利率不变，鲍威尔施压后美元走高。联邦公开市场委员会连续第四次会议将基准利率维持在4.25-4.50%，同时下调了经济增长预测，上调了通胀预测。

FOMC Kept Rates On Hold As Expected, USD Higher After Powell's Presser.The FOMC maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting while revising economic projections lower for growth and higher for inflation.

周四，美元指数稳定在98.9左右，巩固了美联储维持利率不变并重申谨慎、依赖数据的立场后本周早些时候的涨幅。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示，未来几个月通胀可能会上升，理由是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统关税的影响。央行还下调了增长预测，并维持了2025年两次降息25个基点的指导方针——令人惊讶的是，市场只对一次降息进行了定价。此外，在地缘政治紧张局势不断升级的情况下，美元从避险资金流中获得支撑。对美国可能参与以色列-伊朗冲突的担忧日益加剧，有报道称华盛顿正在为可能对伊朗发动袭击做准备。与此同时，伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊警告称，如果美国进行军事干预，将对美国造成“不可挽回的损害”。

The US dollar index held steady around 98.9 on Thursday, consolidating gains from earlier in the week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed a cautious, data-dependent stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that inflation could rise in the coming months, citing the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The central bank also downgraded growth forecasts and maintained guidance for two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025—surprising markets that had priced in only one. Moreover, the dollar found support from safe-haven flows amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Concerns mounted over potential US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, with reports suggesting Washington is preparing for a possible strike on Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of “irreparable damage” to the US if it intervenes militarily.

周三晚间，美国股指期货小幅下跌，周四6月15日市场休市。在常规交易时段，道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数分别下跌0.1%和0.03%，而纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.13%。此举是在美联储保持利率稳定之后做出的，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在地缘政治和经济不确定性上升的情况下采取了谨慎的语气。鲍威尔重申了一种依赖数据的方法，指出特朗普总统的关税对通胀的影响尚不清楚，还有滞胀的风险。美联储目前的预测包括2025年的两次降息，以及下调的增长预期和更高的通胀预测。中东紧张局势升级进一步抑制了投资者情绪，持续的以色列-以色列冲突引发了对美国进一步介入的担忧。标普500指数的11个板块中有7个收盘下跌，能源板块领跌，科技板块表现优于大盘。

US stock futures edged lower Wednesday evening ahead of Thursday’s market closure for Juneteenth. During the regular session, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and 0.03%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.13%. The moves came after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell striking a cautious tone amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Powell reaffirmed a data-dependent approach, pointing to unclear inflation impacts from President Trump’s tariffs and the risk of stagflation. Fed projections now include two rate cuts in 2025, alongside downgraded growth expectations and higher inflation forecasts. Investor sentiment was further dampened by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict stoked fears of deeper US involvement. Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day in the red, led by declines in energy, while technology outperformed.

6月，加元兑美元汇率跌至1.37，较6月16日出现的8个多月来的最高点1.357有所回落，因为对与美国货币政策分歧的预期、大宗商品疲软的迹象和地缘政治避险资金的流动都削弱了其最近的涨幅。交易员现在将加拿大央行相对美联储更为激进的宽松政策纳入价格，缩小了收益率差异，侵蚀了加元的套利优势。在国内，第一季度私人消费数据不温不火，环比增长0.4%，最近加拿大商品的贸易关税威胁给出口商的前景蒙上了阴影。与此同时，以色列和伊朗的紧张局势进一步支撑了美元的吸引力。

The Canadian dollar weakened toward 1.37 per USD in June, easing from its strongest in over eight months of 1.357 seen June 16th, as expectations for monetary policy divergence with the US, softer commodity cues and geopolitical safe-haven flows have all chipped away at its recent gains. Traders now price in more aggressive Bank of Canada easing relative to the Fed, narrowing yield differentials and eroding the loonie’s carry advantage. Domestically, tepid first-quarter private-consumption data –0.4% quarter-on-quarter and recent trade-tariff threats on Canadian goods have clouded the outlook for exporters. Meanwhile, Israel–Iran tensions have further underpinned the US dollar’s appeal.