纽币/美元 (NZDUSD) 加自选

周二，美元指数徘徊在99.3左右，在投资者等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在会议晚些时候的讲话时，几乎没有方向。他的演讲是在美国政府长期停摆之际发表的，这限制了关键经济数据的发布，促使市场将目光投向即将到来的银行盈利，以寻找经济健康的信号。人们普遍预计，继9月份采取类似举措后，美联储本月将再次降息25个基点，预计12月份将再次降息。与此同时，在本月晚些时候可能在韩国举行的传祺-Xi会议之前，投资者继续跟踪美中贸易的快速发展。在最近的升级中，中国对韩华海洋的五家美国公司实施了限制，以回应华盛顿对中国海事、物流和造船业的调查。

The dollar index hovered around 99.3 on Tuesday, showing little direction as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the session. His speech comes amid a prolonged US government shutdown that has limited the release of key economic data, prompting markets to look toward upcoming bank earnings for signals on the economy’s health. The Fed is widely expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut this month following a similar move in September, with another reduction anticipated in December. Meanwhile, investors continued to track fast-evolving US-China trade developments ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea later this month. In the latest escalation, China imposed restrictions on five US units of Hanwha Ocean in response to Washington’s probes into Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors.

周二，新西兰元贬值至0.57美元以下，将其熊市延续至六个月来的新低，受到进一步政策刺激的预期以及贸易风险的打击。报道显示，中国对韩国造船商韩华海洋的五家美国附属子公司实施制裁，使缓解两国紧张局势的希望渺茫，并引发了对出口依赖型市场的担忧。在国内，新西兰的电子卡支出在9月份有所下降，这表明消费者对最近的降息仍然没有反应。这支持了央行上周决定实施50个基点的大幅降息，反映出人们对该国经济势头减弱的担忧日益加剧。官员们还表示，可能会提供额外的货币支持。市场目前预计11月将再次降息，预计到2026年利率可能降至2%。投资者正将注意力转向下周的第三季度通胀数据。

The New Zealand dollar depreciated below $0.57 on Tuesday, extending its bearish run to a fresh six-month low, battered by expectations of further policy stimulus compounded with trade risks. Reports showed that China imposed sanctions on five US-affiliated subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, dimming hopes of easing tensions between the two powers and raising fears of fallout for export-reliant markets. Domestically, New Zealand’s electronic card spending declined in September, suggesting consumers remain unresponsive to recent rate cuts. This supported the central bank’s decision last week to implement an oversized 50 bps rate cut, reflecting growing concern over the country’s weakening economic momentum. Officials also signaled that additional monetary support could follow. Markets are now pricing in another cut in November, with projections that rates could fall to 2% by 2026. Investors are turning their attention to next week’s Q3 inflation data.

周二，美国股指期货下跌，扭转了早盘的涨势，因为最新的贸易相关头条新闻重新引发了人们对美中关系的担忧。中国对韩华海洋的五家美国分公司实施了限制，以报复华盛顿对中国海运、物流和造船业的调查。这些举措是在华尔街周一大幅反弹之后采取的，当时唐纳德·特朗普总统在上周威胁对中国商品征收100%关税，导致约2万亿美元的市值蒸发后，对中国采取了更为温和的态度。Megacap科技股领涨周一的反弹，特斯拉、英伟达和博通上涨2.8%至9.9%，而量子计算、清洁能源和稀土股的表现也优于其他股，包括Rigetti computing（25%）、Oklo（16.2%）和MP Materials（21.2%）。投资者现在期待着当天晚些时候摩根大通和高盛等主要银行的季度收益。

US stock futures fell on Tuesday, reversing gains from earlier in the session as the latest trade-related headlines reignited fears about US-China relations. China imposed restrictions on five US units of Hanwha Ocean in retaliation for Washington’s investigations into Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. Those moves came after Wall Street rebounded sharply on Monday, when President Donald Trump struck a softer tone on China following last week’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods that wiped out about $2 trillion in market value. Megacap tech stocks led Monday’s rebound, with Tesla, Nvidia, and Broadcom rising between 2.8% and 9.9%, while quantum computing, clean energy, and rare earth shares also outperformed, including Rigetti Computing (25%), Oklo (16.2%), and MP Materials (21.2%). Investors now look ahead to quarterly earnings from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs later in the day.

尽管政府休假，美国CPI仍将公布。在欧元区，焦点转向德国ZEW指数，这是10月份的首批情绪指标之一。近几个月来，由于经济评估和预期相较于PMI的上升有所减弱，该指标有所下降。

US CPI Will Be Released Despite Government Furlough.In the euro area, focus turns to the German ZEW index which is one of the first sentiment indicators for October. The indicator has declined in recent months due to both weaker economic assessments and expectations in contrast to the rising PMIs.