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欧洲法庭的曲折增加了关税风险。Kevin Buckland展望欧洲和全球市场未来一天

EUROPE Courtroom twists add to tariff risks.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

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China’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to around 1.70% on Friday, as investors sought safer assets amid stalled US-China trade negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked on Thursday that talks with China are currently “a bit stalled” and may require direct intervention from President Trump and President Xi Jinping to make progress. Although a temporary truce was reached two weeks ago, momentum has since waned. Meanwhile, Washington has tightened export restrictions, effectively barring certain American firms from selling key technologies to China. On the domestic front, investors are closely awaiting upcoming PMI data scheduled for release over the weekend, which is expected to provide important insights into the economic health of the world’s second-largest economy.

韩元兑美元汇率跌至1375左右，结束了连续两个交易日的上涨，因为市场情绪在新的关税风险下变得谨慎。周四，美国联邦上诉法院暂时恢复了特朗普总统的全面关税，推翻了一天前下级法院阻止征收关税的裁决。在货币政策方面，韩国央行将基准利率降至2.50%，并将2025年GDP增长预测下调至0.8%，这表明经济势头放缓，经济担忧加剧。政治不确定性也产生了影响，因为投资者密切关注即将于6月3日举行的总统选举。与此同时，随着韩国企业继续加大对美国市场的投资，人们越来越期望韩国对美国的贸易顺差可能会缩小。投资者现在期待着下周公布的新一轮韩国经济数据，包括贸易平衡、采购经理人指数和通胀数据。

The South Korean won weakened to around 1,375 per dollar, ending two consecutive sessions of gains, as market sentiment turned cautious amid renewed tariff risks. On Thursday, a US federal appeals court temporarily reinstated President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, overturning a lower court’s ruling that had blocked them just one day earlier. On the monetary policy front, economic concerns intensified after the Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate to 2.50% and lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to a modest 0.8%, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum. Political uncertainty also weighed, as investors closely watched the upcoming presidential elections on June 3. Meanwhile, expectations are growing that South Korea’s trade surplus with the US may narrow, as local firms continue ramping up investment in the US market. Investors now look ahead to a new wave of South Korean economic data, including trade balance, PMI, and inflation figures, set for release next week.

RBNZ的Silk：数据指导进一步削减的时机和需求。她指出，之前宽松政策的全部影响尚未渗透到经济中，因此未来的任何调整都高度依赖于即将到来的数据。

RBNZ's Silk: Data to guide timing and need for further cuts.She noted that the full impact of previous easing has yet to filter through the economy, making any future adjustments highly dependent on incoming data.