避险买盘提振美元和压力金属，但地缘政治未能破坏风险资产。随着假期结束后流动性状况迅速恢复正常，市场正在消化华盛顿周末突袭委内瑞拉和尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统被捕的影响。虽然此次行动最初引发了地缘政治风险的飙升，但价格走势表明投资者仍持谨慎态度，但远未感到恐慌。

Safe-Haven Bid Lifts Dollar and Pressure Metals, But Geopolitics Fail to Disrupt Risk Assets.As liquidity conditions have normalized quickly after the holiday lull, markets are digesting the fallout from Washington's weekend raid in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. While the operation initially triggered a spike in geopolitical risk, price action suggests investors remain cautious but far from alarmed.

中国回应委内瑞拉局势，敦促立即释放马杜罗。石油出口部分可以说是所有这一切中最有趣的部分。在某种情况下，委内瑞拉的生产和出口能力在政治不稳定和制裁中受到重创。

China responds to Venezuela situation, urges for immediate release of Maduro.The oil exports part is arguably the most interesting in all of this. For some context, Venezuela has seen its production and export capabilities crippled amid political instability and sanctions.

天然气和石油预测：尽管势头疲软，但地缘政治紧张局势支撑价格。地缘政治紧张局势和欧佩克+纪律使油价保持在60美元附近，因为天然气测试了3.45美元的支撑位，疲软的RSI预示着未来的波动。

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Support Prices Despite Weak Momentum.Geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ discipline keep oil supported near $60 as natural gas tests $3.45 support, with weak RSI signaling volatility ahead.

中国私人服务业采购经理人指数降至52.0，制约因素持续到2026年。中国12月的RatiingDog PMI服务业指数从52.1微降至52.0，为六个月来的最低水平，连续第四个月延续了增长放缓的势头。

China's private PMI services falls to 52.0, constraints persist into 2026.China's RatingDog PMI Services edged down from 52.1 to 52.0 in December, marking the lowest level in six months and extending the slowdown in growth momentum for a fourth consecutive month.