美元指数：回调面临重要技术支撑的逆风。美元连续第三天下跌，受美中贸易冲突升级和美联储主席鲍威尔最近鸽派言论的影响，这些言论增加了人们对美联储在年底前两次降息的强烈预期。

Dollar Index: Pullback Faces Headwinds from Important Technical Support.The dollar holds in red for the third consecutive day, weighed by escalation of US-China trade conflict and recent dovish remarks from Fed chair Powell that add to strong expectations for two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year.

美国贸易代表格里尔：中国正在采取行动，似乎想要脱钩。过去几天，美国和中国之间发生了很多来回，但双方都没有进一步升级。市场继续预计未来几天和几周将出现更多缓和。

USTR Greer: China is taking actions as if it wants to decouple.There's been lots of back and forth in the past few days between US and China but both sides refrained from escalating further. The markets continue to expect more de-escalation in the next days and weeks.

根据第三项估计，以色列经济在2025年第二季度以3.9%的年率萎缩，比二读报告的4.0%略有改善，扭转了第一季度3.1%的增长。这一下降标志着该国自2023年第四季度以来首次出现季度收缩，反映了持续的“阿姆-卡尔维”冲突对经济的影响。家庭消费下降4.8%，政府支出小幅下降1.0%，固定资本形成暴跌12.8%，而净贸易是拖累因素，尽管进口增长1.1%，但商品和服务出口下降5.7%。与2024年上半年相比，以色列的国内生产总值在半年内增长了0.9%。

Israel’s economy shrank at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2025, according to a third estimate, slightly improving from a 4.0% contraction reported in the second reading and reversing the 3.1% growth recorded in Q1. The decline marks the country’s first quarterly contraction since Q4 2023, reflecting the economic fallout from the ongoing “Am Kalvi” conflict. Household consumption fell 4.8%, government spending edged down 1.0%, and fixed capital formation plummeted 12.8%, while net trade was a drag as exports of goods and services dropped 5.7%, despite imports rising 1.1%. On a half-year basis, Israel’s GDP expanded 0.9% compared with the first half of 2024.

法国10年期OAT收益率保持在3.3%附近，徘徊在两个月低点附近，此前总理塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努在决定暂停总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的养老金改革后，如预期的那样在国民议会的两次不信任投票中幸存下来。此举有助于稳定政府，但给法国本已脆弱的公共财政增加了结构性压力。惠誉于9月将法国的信用评级下调至A+后，穆迪将于10月24日重新评估该评级，前景可能从稳定转为负面。在货币方面，欧洲央行维持利率不变，理由是通胀接近目标水平，增长预测上调，而面临劳动力市场疲软的美联储普遍预计将在未来的会议上两次降息25个基点。

The yield on France’s 10-year OAT held near 3.3%, hovering close to a two-month low, after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes in the National Assembly, as expected, following his decision to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform. The move helped stabilize the government but added structural pressure to France’s already fragile public finances. After Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating to A+ in September, Moody’s is set to review the rating on October 24, with the outlook likely to shift from stable to negative. On the monetary front, the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged, citing inflation near target and upwardly revised growth forecasts, while the US Federal Reserve, facing labor market weakness, is widely expected to deliver two 25-basis-point rate cuts in the coming meetings.