美元/挪威克朗 (USDNOK) 加自选

美国ISM服务升至51.6，价格跃升至2023年1月以来的最高水平。美国4月ISM服务业采购经理人指数从50.8升至51.6，高于50.6的预期。这一增长是由更强劲的新订单推动的，新订单从50.4增至52.3。

US ISM services rises to 51.6, prices jumps to highest since Jan 2023.US ISM Services PMI from 50.8 rose to 51.6 in April, beating expectations of 50.6. The gain was driven by stronger new orders, which rose from 50.4 to 52.3.

周一，10年期美国国债收益率跃升至4.35%，延续了上周的涨幅，因为市场对上行通胀风险和关税带来的经济悲观情绪感到压力。ISM数据反映，除了成本压力激增外，美国服务业活动也大幅扩张，这与上周公布的强劲就业报告和个人消费支出通胀数据一致。这抵消了突显关税威胁负面影响的数据，包括第一季度国内生产总值收缩、进口前装税激增以及港口吞吐量暴跌。特朗普总统是否会在更长时间内维持关税的不确定性促使市场达成共识，即美联储本周将维持利率不变。尽管对经济收缩的担忧推动利率期货反映了美联储今年的多次降息，但对美国国债的支持被对不确定的经济政策可能损害美国在资本市场的例外论的担忧所抵消。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped to 4.35% on Monday, extending the rise from last week as markets weighed on upside inflation risks against economic pessimism from tariffs. ISM data reflected a sharp expansion in US services activity in addition to a surge in cost pressures, aligned with the strong jobs report and higher PCE inflation figures released last week. This countered data that underscored a negative impact from tariff threats, including the GDP contraction in Q1, the surge in imports to front-load levies, and plunge in port volumes. Lack of clarity on whether President Trump will maintain tariffs for a longer period drove markets to a consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates unchanged this week. While concerns of economic contraction drove rate futures to reflect multiple cuts by the Fed this year, support for US Treasuries were offset by worries that uncertain economic policy may damage the US exceptionalism in capital markets.

ISM服务业采购经理人指数从3月份的9个月低点50.8意外跃升至2025年4月的51.6，高于50.6的预测。新订单（52.3对50.4）和库存（53.4对50.3）增长更快，业务活动仍处于扩张区域（53.7对55.9）。此外，就业继续萎缩，但速度较慢（49比46.2）。与此同时，供应商交付表现放缓（51.3比50.6），价格压力跃升至2023年2月以来的最高水平（65.1比60.9）。供应管理服务研究所商业调查委员会主席史蒂夫·米勒表示：“关于关税，受访者表示实际定价影响是他们的担忧，而不是不确定性和未来压力。受访者继续提到联邦机构预算削减是对业务的拖累，但总体而言，结果正在改善。”。

The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly jumped to 51.6 in April 2025 from a nine-month low of 50.8 in March and above forecasts of 50.6. New orders (52.3 vs 50.4) and inventories (53.4 vs 50.3) grew at a faster rate and business activity remained in expansion territory (53.7 vs 55.9). Also, employment continued to contract although at a slower pace (49 vs 46.2). Meanwhile, there was a slower supplier delivery performance (51.3 vs 50.6) and price pressures jumped to the highest since February 2023 (65.1 vs 60.9). "Regarding tariffs, respondents cited actual pricing impacts as concerns, more so than uncertainty and future pressures. Respondents continue to mention federal agency budget cuts as a drag on business, but overall, results are improving”, according to Steve Miller, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee.

美国4月ISM服务业采购经理人指数攀升至51.6。4月，美国服务业的经济活动势头强劲，ISM服务业采购经理人指数从3月的50.8升至51.6，高于分析师预测的50.6。

US ISM Services PMI climbs to 51.6 in April.Economic activity in the US service sector gathered momentum in April, with the ISM Services PMI advancing to 51.6 from 50.8 in March, coming in above analysts' estimates of 50.6.