美元/人民币 (USDCNY) 加自选

美元预测：如果NFP本周低于预期，DXY有崩溃的风险。美元指数前景取决于周五的NFP报告和美联储的政治压力，如果劳动力数据令人失望，下行风险将增加。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY at Risk of Breakdown if NFP Misses Expectations This Week.US Dollar Index outlook hinges on Friday's NFP report and political Fed pressures, with downside risks growing if labor data disappoints.

中国国家统计局官方非制造业采购经理人指数从7月份的8个月低点50.1升至2025年8月的50.3，符合市场共识。

China’s official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in August 2025 from July's 8-month low of 50.1, in line with market consensus.

中国国家统计局官方制造业采购经理人指数从7月份的三个月低点49.3微升至2025年8月的49.4，低于市场预期的49.5，标志着连续第五个月收缩。产出连续第四个月增长，为3月以来最快增速（50.8比7月的50.5），同时采购活动反弹，以五个月来最强劲的速度增长。尽管如此，需求状况仍然疲软，新订单（49.5对49.4）和国外销售额（47.2对47.1）进一步下降。此外，就业率持续下降（47.9比48.0）。与此同时，供应商交货时间略有改善（50.5比50.3），为2月以来的最高水平。在价格方面，投入成本加速至2024年10月以来的最高水平，而销售价格的下降速度放缓至十个月来的最低水平。展望未来，商业信心增强至六个月高点（50.5对50.3）。

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.4 in August 2025 from July’s three-month low of 49.3, falling short of market expectations of 49.5 and marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. Output grew for the fourth straight month and at the fastest pace since March (50.8 vs. 50.5 in July), while purchasing activity rebounded, rising at the strongest rate in five months. Still, demand conditions remained weak, highlighted by further drops in new orders (49.5 vs. 49.4), and foreign sales (47.2 vs. 47.1). Also, a decline in employment (47.9 vs. 48.0) persisted. Meantime, supplier delivery times improved slightly (50.5 vs. 50.3), the highest since February. On prices, input costs accelerated to their highest level since October 2024, while a decline in selling prices slowed to the weakest pace in ten months. Looking ahead, business confidence strengthened to a six-month high (50.5 vs. 50.3).

中国国家统计局综合PMI产出指数从7月份的三个月低点50.2升至2025年8月的50.5，表明整体商业活动适度扩张。服务业在7月份跌至八个月低点后反弹，而制造业仍在收缩，但速度略慢。

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.5 in August 2025 from July’s three-month low of 50.2, signaling modest expansion in overall business activity. The services sector rebounded after slipping to an eight-month low in July, while the manufacturing sector remained in contraction but at a slightly slower pace.