美元/捷克克朗 (USDCZK) 加自选

美元：反弹空间–ING。全球风险情绪昨日继续恶化，特朗普总统宣布将加拿大钢铁和铝的关税提高一倍至50%，后来安大略省暂停对电力出口征收25%的附加费，取消了这一威胁。市场一直在寻求关税问题的缓解，但很少有迹象表明股市不稳定会迫使特朗普暂时减少保护主义的声音。

USD: Room to rebound – ING.Global risk sentiment continued to sour yesterday as President Trump announced he'd double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, and later pulled the threat as Ontario suspended a 25% surcharge on electricity exports. Markets have been looking for some reprieve from the tariff story, but there are very few signs that stock instability can press Trump to scale back protectionism noise just yet.

2025年1月，捷克共和国的工业生产同比下降0.6%，低于前一个月下调的2.7%的降幅，也低于市场预期的1%的降幅。这标志着工业活动连续第四个月出现收缩，但是该序列中最疲软的，因为采矿和采石业（-2.8%对12月的-7.6%）和制造业（-1%对-2.8%）的产出下降幅度较小。与此同时，电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应的产量增长进一步增加（2.6%对0.2%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，工业产出下降0.3%，扭转了前一时期向下修正的1.6%的增长。

Industrial production in the Czech Republic fell by 0.6% year-on-year in January 2025, slowing from a downwardly revised 2.7% drop in the previous month and below market expectations of a 1% decrease. This marked the fourth consecutive month of contraction in industrial activity but the softest among the sequence, as output declined less for mining and quarrying (-2.8% vs -7.6% in December) and manufacturing (-1% vs -2.8%). At the same time, production growth increased further for electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (2.6% vs 0.2%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output declined by 0.3%, reversing a downwardly revised 1.6% rise in the preceding period.

美国的年通货膨胀率可能从1月份的3%降至2025年2月的2.9%，尽管它仍然很高，这表明通货紧缩的进展停滞不前。按月度计算，CPI预计将上涨0.3%，低于1月份0.5%的涨幅，这是自2023年8月以来的最高月度通胀率。预计食品价格将继续上涨，鸡蛋价格居高不下，汽油价格可能小幅上涨。相比之下，机票和医疗费用预计将下降。与此同时，年度核心通胀率（不包括波动的食品和能源价格）预计将从3.3%降至3.2%，而月度核心通胀率预计将从0.4%降至0.3%。交易员还将密切关注关税开始影响通胀的任何早期迹象。

The annual inflation rate in the US likely eased to 2.9% in February 2025 from 3% in January, though it remains elevated, signaling stalled progress on disinflation. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to have risen by 0.3%, down from January’s 0.5% increase which was the highest monthly inflation rate since August 2023. Food prices are projected to continue rising, with egg prices remaining high and gasoline likely edging up. In contrast, airfares and medical costs are expected to decline. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to slow to 3.2% from 3.3%, while monthly core inflation is forecast to dip to 0.3% from 0.4%. Traders will also closely monitor any early signs that tariffs are beginning to impact inflation.

美国CPI预期增强。今天最重要的数据将是美国2月CPI。我们认为，总体CPI同比增长0.2%（1月环比增长0.5%，同比增长3.0%），核心CPI同比增长0.3%（1月同比增长0.4%，同比增长3.3%）。

Anticipation Builds for US CPI.Today's most important data release will be the US February CPI. We think headline CPI grew by +0.2% m/m SA and 2.8% y/y (Jan. +0.5% m/m SA and 3.0% y/y) and core CPI by +0.3% m/m SA and 3.2% y/y (Jan +0.4% m/m SA and 3.3% y/y).