美元/捷克克朗 (USDCZK) 加自选

周一，美国10年期国债收益率保持在4.2%左右，在经历了动荡的一周后趋于稳定，因为投资者在地缘政治紧张局势加剧和贸易不确定性持续存在的情况下评估了美联储的政策前景。上周末，以色列和伊朗之间不断升级的冲突成为头条新闻，两国都瞄准了能源基础设施，推高了油价。这些发展预计将降低美联储近期降息的可能性，人们普遍预计美联储将在周三的会议上保持利率不变。随着政策制定者在能源价格上涨、贸易政策不确定性和地缘政治不稳定的复杂背景下进行决策，市场定价也表明7月份没有降息的机会。交易员们还期待周一的制造业数据、周二的零售销售数据和周三的每周失业救济申请人数，以进一步了解美联储的下一步行动。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.2% on Monday, stabilizing after a volatile week, as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade uncertainties. Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran dominated headlines over the weekend, with both countries targeting energy infrastructure and driving oil prices higher. These developments are expected to reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Market pricing suggests no chance of a cut in July either, as policymakers navigate a complex backdrop of elevated energy prices, trade policy uncertainty, and geopolitical instability. Traders also look ahead to manufacturing data on Monday, retail sales figures on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday for further insight into the Fed’s next moves.

美元小幅上涨，市场因中东冲突而紧张。周一，美元兑主要货币走强，受投资者避险买盘推动，投资者担心以色列与伊朗的战斗可能升级为更广泛的地区冲突，因为他们准备迎接一周的央行会议。

Dollar inches up as markets on edge over Middle East conflict.The dollar firmed against major currencies on Monday, driven by safe-haven buying from investors fearing the Israel-Iran fighting could escalate into a broader regional conflict as they braced for a week packed with central bank meetings.

周一，美元指数微涨至98.3左右，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，因为以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级以及油价飙升提振了对避险资产的需求。周末，两国继续瞄准对方的能源基础设施，进一步推动了原油价格的上涨。伊朗还表示，它可能会关闭霍尔木兹海峡——一条关键的全球石油运输路线——这引发了人们对全球供应中断的额外担忧。这将使美联储不太可能在短期内进一步降息，因为政策制定者正在努力应对与关税和通胀相关的风险。人们普遍预计央行周三将保持利率不变，市场暗示7月份也没有降息的机会。交易员们还期待周一的制造业数据、周二的零售销售数据和周三的每周失业救济申请人数，以进一步了解美联储的下一步行动。

The US dollar index edged up to around 98.3 on Monday, extending gains from the previous session as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and a spike in oil prices boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Over the weekend, the two countries continued targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, further fueling the rally in crude. Iran also signaled it may shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a key global oil transit route—raising additional concerns about global supply disruptions. This would make the Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates further in the near-term as policymakers grapple with tariff-related and inflationary risks. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday and markets imply no chance of a reduction in July either. Traders also look ahead to manufacturing data on Monday, retail sales figures on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday for further insight into the Fed’s next moves.

周一，随着以色列和伊朗之间冲突加剧，投资者权衡地缘政治风险上升，美国股指期货几乎没有变化。在周五的常规交易日，道琼斯指数下跌1.79%，标准普尔500指数下跌1.13%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.3%。以色列针对伊朗核设施和高级官员的军事打击导致市场低迷。德黑兰迅速进行了报复，将冲突升级为公开战争。周末，双方对彼此的能源基础设施发动了进一步的攻击，导致油价再次飙升。伊朗还威胁要关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这是全球石油运输的关键瓶颈，加剧了市场的紧张情绪。与此同时，尽管特朗普总统要求放松政策的压力越来越大，但预计美联储将在即将举行的会议上保持利率稳定。央行面临着与关税相关的不确定性和地缘政治不稳定加剧的复杂背景。

US stock futures were little changed on Monday as investors weighed rising geopolitical risks following the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. In Friday’s regular session, the Dow tumbled 1.79%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.3%. The market downturn followed Israel’s military strike on Iran, targeting nuclear sites and senior officials. Tehran retaliated swiftly, escalating the conflict into open warfare. Over the weekend, both sides launched further attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, fueling a fresh surge in oil prices. Iran also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments—adding to market jitters. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, despite increasing pressure from President Trump to loosen policy. The central bank faces a complex backdrop of tariff-related uncertainty and rising geopolitical instability.