欧元/捷克克朗 (EURCZK) 加自选

2025年5月，欧元区的贸易顺差从一年前的127亿欧元扩大到162亿欧元，出口增长0.9%，进口下降0.6%。在更广泛的欧盟，贸易顺差也从89亿欧元增长到131亿欧元。欧盟出口小幅增长0.1%，至2169亿欧元，得益于化学品（+12.1%）和食品饮料（+3.2%）的强劲销售，抵消了机械和车辆的下降（-2.4%）。对主要合作伙伴的出口增长，包括美国（+4.4%）、瑞士（+6.8%）和英国（+2.5%）。在进口方面，欧盟购买了2038亿欧元的商品，比去年下降了2%。这一下降主要是由于对能源（-18.7%）和原材料（-1.7%）的需求减弱。来自中国的进口增加（+3.4%），但来自美国（-7.4%）和英国（-7.1%）的进口大幅下降。

The Eurozone’s trade surplus widened to €16.2 billion in May 2025 from €12.7 billion a year earlier, as exports rose 0.9% while imports declined 0.6%. In the broader EU, the trade surplus also grew to €13.1 billion from €8.9 billion. EU exports edged up 0.1% to €216.9 billion, supported by strong sales of chemicals (+12.1%) and food and drink (+3.2%), which offset declines in machinery and vehicles (-2.4%). Exports to key partners rose, including the US (+4.4%), Switzerland (+6.8%), and the UK (+2.5%). On the import side, the EU purchased €203.8 billion in goods, down 2% from last year. This drop was mainly driven by weaker demand for energy (-18.7%) and raw materials (-1.7%). Imports increased from China (+3.4%) but fell significantly from the US (-7.4%) and the UK (-7.1%).

2025年5月，意大利的贸易顺差为61.63亿欧元，低于去年同期的63.77亿欧元。尽管略有收窄，但这一数字大大超过了28.7亿欧元盈余的市场预期，创下2024年7月以来的最高水平。出口同比下降1.9%，至550.88亿欧元，主要原因是对非欧盟国家的销售额下降4.6%，抵消了对欧盟市场出口0.7%的小幅增长。最显著的负面贡献来自计算机、电子和光学设备（-15.9%）以及体育用品、游戏、乐器、贵金属、医疗器械和其他杂项产品（-15.1%）。与此同时，进口额下降1.7%，至489.25亿欧元，与欧盟国家（-0.4%）相比，非欧盟国家的进口额下降幅度更大（-3.4%）。下降的主要原因是能源产品（-14.2%）、中间产品（-6.6%）和资本货物（-2.6%）的进口减少。

Italy recorded a trade surplus of EUR 6.163 billion in May 2025, down from EUR 6.377 billion in the same month last year. Despite the slight narrowing, the figure significantly exceeded market expectations of a EUR 2.87 billion surplus and marked the highest amount since July 2024. Exports fell by 1.9% year-on-year to EUR 55.088 billion, driven mainly by a 4.6% drop in sales to non-EU countries, which more than offset a modest 0.7% increase in exports to EU markets. The most significant negative contributions came from computers, electronic and optical equipment (-15.9%) and sporting goods, games, musical instruments, precious metals, medical instruments, and other miscellaneous products (-15.1%). Meanwhile, imports declined by 1.7% to EUR 48.925 billion, with a sharper drop in purchases from non-EU countries (-3.4%) compared to EU nations (-0.4%). The decline was primarily driven by lower imports of energy products (-14.2%), intermediate goods (-6.6%), and capital goods (-2.6%).

德国10年期国债收益率升至2.7%以上，徘徊在三个多月来的最高水平附近，投资者继续关注贸易发展并评估其潜在的通胀影响。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布自8月1日起对来自欧盟的进口商品征收30%的关税，尽管他后来表示愿意参与谈判。作为回应，欧盟重申其达成贸易协议的承诺，并宣布将推迟报复措施，将暂停计划中的关税延长至8月初，以便有时间进行进一步对话。与此同时，美国和英国的通货膨胀在6月份加速，促使市场略微降低了对美联储和英格兰银行降息的预期。在欧元区，人们普遍预计欧洲央行将在下周的会议上维持利率不变，尽管市场仍预计年底前至少会降息一次。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose above 2.7%, hovering near its highest level in over three months, as investors continued to monitor trade developments and assess their potential inflationary impact. US President Donald Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union, effective August 1st, although he later indicated a willingness to engage in negotiations. In response, the EU reaffirmed its commitment to reaching a trade agreement and announced it would delay retaliatory measures, extending the suspension of planned tariffs until early August to allow time for further dialogue. Meanwhile, inflation in both the US and UK accelerated in June, prompting markets to slightly scale back expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting next week, though markets still price in at least one rate cut before year-end.

意大利的年通货膨胀率从上个月的1.6%微升至2025年6月的1.7%，符合初步估计和初步市场预期。反过来，欧盟协调通胀率从早些时候的1.7%上升到1.8%，高于1.7%的初步估计，但与初步估计一致。非加工品（4.2%对5月份的3.5%）和运输服务（2.9%对2.6%）的通货膨胀率都有所上升。此外，耐用品的通货紧缩有所减弱（-0.8%对-1.1%）。另一方面，受监管能源的价格放缓（22.6%对29.3%），可能会影响住房和公用事业成本的放缓（2.4%对3.9%）。核心通胀率（不包括波动性和经常外生的新鲜食品和能源分项）从5月份的1.9%上升至2%，较最初的2.1%的快速估计有所下调。与上月相比，意大利消费者价格上涨了0.2%。

The annual inflation rate in Italy inched higher to 1.7% in June of 2025 from 1.6% in the previous month, in line with the preliminary estimate and initial market expectations. In turn, the EU-harmonized inflation rate rose to 1.8% from 1.7% in the earlier period, revised higher from the flash estimate of 1.7% but in line with the preliminary estimates. Inflation rose for both non-processed (4.2% vs 3.5% in May) and transportation services (2.9% vs 2.6%). Additionally, deflation was softer for durable goods (-0.8% vs -1.1%). On the other hand, prices slowed for regulated energy (22.6% vs 29.3%), potentially impacting the slowdown for housing and utilities cost (2.4% vs 3.9%). The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile and often exogenous fresh food and energy subindices, rose to 2% from 1.9% in May, revised lower from the initial flash estimate of 2.1%. From the previous month, Italian consumer prices rose by 0.2%.