欧元/英镑 (EURGBP) 加自选

德国10年期债券收益率跌至2.5%以下，此前数据显示欧元区2月份商业活动仍停滞不前，加剧了人们对经济长期停滞的担忧。这加剧了投资者对欧洲央行降息的预期，货币市场目前预计今年将加息78个基点，高于周四的74个基点。与此同时，投资者正密切关注周日的德国大选。民意调查显示，由弗里德里希·默茨领导的保守派基民盟/基社盟集团有望获胜，但在持续的经济挑战中，可能需要联盟伙伴来执政。交易员还权衡了地缘政治风险，尤其是在美国表示计划在与俄罗斯（不包括乌克兰和欧洲）进行谈判的同时缩减对乌克兰的支持之际。此外，美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会从4月2日开始对汽车、半导体和药品进口征收25%的关税，此举可能会对欧洲汽车制造商产生重大影响。

Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell below 2.5% after data showed Eurozone business activity remained stagnant in February, reinforcing concerns of prolonged economic stagnation. This fueled investor expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts, with money markets now pricing in 78 basis points of easing this year, up from 74 basis points on Thursday. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching Germany’s general election on Sunday. Polls suggest the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, is poised to win but will likely need coalition partners to govern amid ongoing economic challenges. Traders also weighed geopolitical risks, particularly as the US signaled plans to scale back support for Ukraine while engaging in negotiations with Russia—excluding both Ukraine and Europe. Additionally, US President Trump indicated he would likely impose a 25% tariff on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports starting April 2, a move that could heavily impact European carmakers.