欧元/日元 (EURJPY) 加自选

法兰克福DAX指数周四小幅收跌，收于24293点，交易员权衡了令人鼓舞的PMI调查和美欧贸易的积极发展与乌克兰和平谈判持续存在的不确定性。8月PMI初步数据凸显了欧洲主要经济体在美国关税和全球不确定性面前的韧性。受好于预期的制造业表现支撑，德国8月份私营部门活动较上月略有回升。在贸易方面，布鲁塞尔和华盛顿今天发布了期待已久的联合声明，敲定了他们近一个月前达成的贸易协议，确认汽车、半导体和药品进入美国将面临最高15%的关税。现在人们的注意力转向美联储主席周五在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的演讲。涨幅最大的是莱茵金属（+3.3%）、德国商业银行（+2.9%）、西门子能源（+1.4%）和空客（+1.2%），而赛多利斯表现不佳，下跌近3%。

The DAX in Frankfurt pared early losses to close marginally up at 24,293 on Thursday, as traders weighed encouraging PMI surveys and positive developments on US-EU trade against ongoing uncertainties around Ukraine peace talks. Preliminary August PMI data underscored resilience in major European economies in the face of US tariffs and global uncertainties. Germany’s private sector activity picked up slightly in August from the prior month, supported by better-than-expected manufacturing performance. On the trade front, Brussels and Washington released today the long-awaited joint statement sealing the trade deal they struck nearly a month ago, confirming that cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will face a maximum 15% tariffs to enter the US. Attention now turns to the Fed Chairman's Friday speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Top gainers were Rheinmetall (+3.3%), Commerzbank (+2.9%), Siemens Energy (+1.4%) and Airbus (+1.2%), while Sartorius underperformed, down nearly 3%.

日本通胀率有望放缓，日元下跌。日本将于周五发布7月通胀报告。市场将对核心利率特别感兴趣，预计核心利率将从6月份的3.3%降至3.0%。

Japan's Inflation Rate Expected to Ease, Yen Dips.Japan releases the July inflation report on Friday. The markets will be especially interested in the core rate, which is expected to ease to 3.0% y/y, from 3.3% in June.

周四，随着美国和欧盟公布其贸易框架的新细节，富时MIB指数下跌0.1%，至略低于43000点。虽然该协议对欧盟出口产品征收15%的全面关税，但一旦布鲁塞尔取消对美国工业品的壁垒，汽车和汽车零部件将面临更温和的征税，即使在232条款上调后，药品关税也将限制在15%。欧盟还承诺增加对美国国防设备的采购。在企业方面，Mediobanca（-1%）股东拒绝了首席执行官Alberto Nagel以68亿欧元收购Banca Generali（+0.1%）的提议，阻止了组建意大利第二大财富管理公司的计划，削弱了其对潜在MPS（-1.6%）收购的防御。Leonardo上涨3.4%，Saipem上涨1.5%，而Stellantis（-1%）和Campari（-1.7%）下跌。

The FTSE MIB slipped 0.1% to just below 43,000 on Thursday as the US and EU unveiled new details on their trade framework. While the deal set blanket 15% tariffs on EU exports, autos and auto parts will face softer levies once Brussels removes barriers on US industrial goods, and pharma tariffs will be capped at 15% even after Section 232 hikes. The EU also pledged to increase procurement of US defense equipment. On the corporate front, Mediobanca (-1%) shareholders rejected CEO Alberto Nagel’s €6.8 billion bid for Banca Generali (+0.1%), blocking plans to form Italy’s second-largest wealth manager and weakening its defense against a potential MPS (-1.6%) takeover. Leonardo rose 3.4% and Saipem 1.5%, while Stellantis (-1%) and Campari (-1.7%) fell.

周四，欧元保持在1.165美元左右，自本周开始以来一直处于窄幅区间，并保持了今年的大部分反弹，因为市场评估了与美国贸易的新数据和新发展。新的采购经理人指数数据显示，在新订单和价格指标增加的情况下，欧元区经济活动出现了15个月来最大的增长，这加强了欧洲央行减少降息的理由，欧洲证券交易委员会期货显示，国外普遍认为今年将降息25个基点。与此同时，对欧盟和美国之间贸易协议的新见解表明，尽管汽车、药品和芯片可能不会受到美国威胁的更高行业关税的影响，但大多数欧洲商品将被征收15%的关税。今年欧元兑美元汇率上涨11%，欧盟国家表示将增加支出以刺激工业、基础设施和国防，而美国不确定的经济政策和财政压力引发了人们对美元的逃离。

The euro held around the $1.165 mark on Thursday, remaining in a narrow range since the start of the week and holding most of its rally this year as markets assessed fresh data and new developments on trade with the US. New PMI data showed that Eurozone economic activity rose the most in 15 months amid higher new orders and price gauges, strengthening the case for less rate cuts by the ECB, with ESTR futures pointing to abroad consensus of one 25bps rate cut this year. In the meantime, new insights on the trade deal between the EU and the US showed that most European goods will be subject to 15% levies, although autos, pharmaceutical goods, and chips may not be subject to higher sector tariffs threatened by the US. The euro rallied 11% against the dollar this year as EU nations signaled they will increase expenditure to stimulate industry, infrastructure, and defense, while uncertain economic policy and fiscal stress in the US triggered a flight away from the dollar.