欧元/日元 (EURJPY) 加自选

意大利在2025年7月公布了79亿欧元的贸易顺差，高于一年前的68亿欧元，高于预期的55亿欧元，因为出口增长快于进口。出口同比增长7.3%，达到616亿欧元，这得益于对非欧盟（+9.9%）和欧盟（+4.8%）市场的销售额增加。强劲增长来自运输设备，不包括机动车（+45.6%）、药品（+28.5%）、贱金属（+7.0%）和食品、饮料和烟草（+6.1%）。按目的地划分，美国（+24.1%）、东盟（+37.4%）、西班牙（+13.8%）、英国（+9.0%）、法国（+4.7%）、瑞士（+9.5%）和波兰（+12.5%）的出货量大幅增长，而荷兰（-7.8%）、中国（-4.0%）和土耳其（-2.5%）的出货率则有所下降。与此同时，进口增长了6.1%，非欧盟购买量激增13.1%，而欧盟购买量小幅增长0.8%。2025年1月至7月，出口增长2.9%，进口增长4.8%，贸易顺差从去年的360亿欧元缩小到307亿欧元。

Italy posted a trade surplus of €7.9 billion in July 2025, up from €6.8 billion a year earlier, above the expected €5.5 billion, as exports rose faster than imports. Exports grew 7.3% year-on-year to €61.6 billion, driven by higher sales to non-EU (+9.9%) and EU (+4.8%) markets. Strong gains came from transportation equipment excluding motor vehicles (+45.6%), pharmaceuticals (+28.5%), base metals (+7.0%), and food, beverages & tobacco (+6.1%). By destination, shipments rose sharply to the US (+24.1%), ASEAN (+37.4%), Spain (+13.8%), UK (+9.0%), France (+4.7%), Switzerland (+9.5%), and Poland (+12.5%), while declines were recorded for the Netherlands (-7.8%), China (-4.0%), and Turkey (-2.5%). Meanwhile, imports increased 6.1%, with non-EU purchases surging 13.1% versus a modest 0.8% rise from the EU. Over January–July 2025, exports rose 2.9% while imports advanced 4.8%, narrowing the trade surplus to €30.7 billion from €36.0 billion last year.

巴黎CAC 40指数周一开盘上涨0.3%，收于7860点，延续了上周的势头，尽管惠誉以债务上升和政治不稳定为由将法国的长期信用评级从AA-下调至A+。本周投资者关注的焦点是央行的决策，市场普遍预计美联储将降息25个基点，而日本央行和英格兰银行将保持政策稳定。在股票方面，威立雅股价上涨0.2%，此前威立雅与SATORP签署了一项5亿美元的协议，与马拉菲克和拉马尔一起，在中东最大的石化中心朱拜勒建造一座大型工业废水回收厂。意法半导体（+1.3%）、Stellantis（+0.9%）、开云集团（+0.7%）和泰雷兹集团（+0.70%）也支撑了涨幅。

Paris’s CAC 40 opened 0.3% higher at 7,860 on Monday, extending last week’s momentum even after Fitch cut France’s long-term credit rating to A+ from AA-, citing rising debt and political instability. Investor focus this week is on central bank decisions, with markets widely expecting the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are seen holding policy steady. In stocks, Veolia rose 0.2% after signing a $500 million deal with SATORP, alongside Marafiq and Lamar, to build a large-scale industrial wastewater recycling plant in Jubail, the Middle East’s largest petrochemical hub. Gains were also supported by STMicroelectronics (+1.3%), Stellantis (+0.9%), Kering (+0.7%), and Thales (+0.7%).

富时MIB指数周一早盘上涨0.3%，至42680美元左右，连续第六个交易日上涨，达到近三周高点。投资者情绪受到普遍预期的美联储本周晚些时候降息的支撑，因为美国劳动力市场出现降温迹象。在其他地方，美国和中国官员周日结束了在马德里举行的关于紧张贸易关系的第一天会谈，讨论将于今天继续。在企业方面，Leonardo（+2.2%）、意法半导体（+2.20%）、联合圣保罗银行（+1.2%）和BPER Banca（+1.7）是显著上涨的股票。奢侈品牌也表现出色，Moncler和Brunello Cucinelli分别上涨2.8%和3.4%。

The FTSE MIB Index rose 0.3% to around $42,680 in early trading on Monday, extending its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session and reaching a near three-week high. Investor sentiment was supported by a widely expected rate cut from the US Federal Reserve later this week amid signs of cooling in the US labor market. Elsewhere, US and Chinese officials wrapped up the first day of talks in Madrid on Sunday on their strained trade ties, with discussions set to continue today. On the corporate front, Leonardo (+2.2%), STMicroelectronics (+2.2%), Intesa Sanpaolo (+1.2%), and BPER Banca (+1.7) were among the notable gainers. Luxury brands also outperformed, with Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli climbing 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively.

欧洲股市本周开盘表现良好，STOXX 50指数上涨0.6%，STOXX 600指数上涨0.3%，达到三周高点，交易员们正在为忙碌的一周央行货币政策决策做准备。人们普遍预计美联储将恢复降息，其中25个基点的降息已完全消化。投资者还将关注英格兰银行、日本银行和加拿大银行的政策更新。与此同时，惠誉上周五下调了法国的信用评级，理由是政府债务增加、政治两极分化加剧以及对财政前景的担忧。银行业领涨，在CVC Capital Partners和托克有收购意向的报道后，Rubis飙升超过7%。其他银行也上涨，包括桑坦德银行（+0.9%）、联合信贷银行（+1%）、联合圣保罗银行（+1.2%）和法国巴黎银行（+1.1%）。在蓝筹股中，LVMH（+1.2%）和ASML控股（+1.3%）也实现了稳健增长。

European stocks started the week in positive territory, with the STOXX 50 up 0.6% and the STOXX 600 rising 0.3% to reach three-week highs, as traders brace for a busy week of central bank monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to resume interest rate cuts, with a 25 bps reduction fully priced in. Investors will also be watching policy updates from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, attention remains on France after Fitch downgraded the country’s credit rating last Friday, citing rising government debt, growing political polarization, and concerns over the fiscal outlook. The banking sector led gains, with Rubis soaring more than 7% following reports of takeover interest from CVC Capital Partners and Trafigura. Other lenders also advanced, including Banco Santander (+0.9%), UniCredit (+1%), Intesa Sanpaolo (+1.2%), and BNP Paribas (+1.1%). Among blue chips, LVMH (+1.2%) and ASML Holding (+1.3%) also posted solid gains.