欧元/日元 (EURJPY) 加自选

欧元可能扩大涨幅；日元走强，但市场逆转风险依然存在。尽管主要货币对的修正运动似乎即将完成，但外汇市场仍面临普遍不确定性的压力。

Euro May Extend Gains; Yen Strengthens, but Market Reversal Risks Persist.The foreign exchange market remains under pressure from prevailing uncertainty, although corrective movements in major currency pairs appear to be nearing completion.

意大利10年期债券收益率升至3.5%，结束了连续两天的下跌，这得益于新宣布的美日贸易协定的缓解，该协定缓解了对全球关税升级的担忧，并重新点燃了人们对美国和欧盟之间达成类似协议的期望。尽管如此，市场情绪仍然谨慎。报道显示，欧盟特使正在准备应急措施，以防与特朗普总统的贸易谈判陷入僵局，因为他的政府在8月1日的最后期限之前采取了更激进的立场。投资者的注意力现在转移到周四的欧洲央行政策会议和欧元区最大经济体PMI数据的发布上。人们普遍预计，欧洲央行在连续八次降息后将保持利率稳定，因为官员们在贸易紧张局势持续、欧元坚挺和通胀疲软的情况下暂停评估前景。货币市场完全预计到年底将降息25个基点，9月份降息的可能性约为50%。

Italy's 10-year bond yield rose toward 3.5%, ending a two-day losing streak, driven by relief over the newly announced US-Japan trade agreement, which eased fears of escalating global tariffs and reignited expectations for a similar deal between the US and the EU. Still, market sentiment remains cautious. Reports indicate that EU envoys are preparing contingency measures in case trade negotiations with President Trump falter, as his administration takes a more aggressive stance ahead of the August 1 deadline. Investor focus now shifts to Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting and the release of flash PMI data from the eurozone’s largest economies. The ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady after eight straight cuts, as officials pause to assess the outlook amid lingering trade tensions, a firm euro, and weak inflation. Money markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by year-end, with about a 50% probability of it occurring in September.

法国10年期政府债券收益率周三反弹至3.3%，结束了两天的下跌。在宣布美日贸易协议后，经济复苏，该协议有助于缓解对全球关税上升的担忧，并重新燃起了美国和欧盟之间达成类似协议的希望。然而，投资者情绪仍然谨慎，据报道，欧盟特使正在准备应急计划，以防与特朗普总统的贸易谈判破裂，因为特朗普政府在8月1日截止日期前采取了更强硬的立场。现在，人们的注意力转向了周四欧洲央行的政策决定和欧元区最大经济体发布的PMI预览数据。人们普遍预计，欧洲央行在连续八次降息后将保持利率不变，因为政策制定者在持续的贸易不确定性、欧元的弹性和通胀的抑制下采取了观望态度。市场完全预计到年底将降息25个基点，最早在9月降息的可能性约为50%。

France’s 10-year government bond yield rebounded to 3.3% on Wednesday, snapping a two-day decline. The recovery followed the announcement of a US-Japan trade deal, which helped ease fears of rising global tariffs and revived hopes for a similar agreement between the US and the EU. However, investor sentiment remains cautious, with EU envoys reportedly preparing contingency plans in case trade talks with President Trump collapse, amid a more hardline stance from his administration ahead of the August 1 deadline. Attention now turns to Thursday’s ECB policy decision and the release of flash PMI data from the euro area’s largest economies. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after eight consecutive cuts, as policymakers adopt a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing trade uncertainty, a resilient euro, and subdued inflation. Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by year-end, with a roughly 50% chance of that move happening as early as September.

德国10年期国债收益率周三上涨至2.62%，此前在周一和周二下跌了10个基点以上，因为最近宣布的美日贸易协定缓解了对全球关税升级的担忧，并重新点燃了与欧盟达成类似协议的希望。尽管有所缓解，但市场仍持谨慎态度。据报道，欧盟特使正在讨论应急措施，以防与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易谈判破裂，特朗普在8月1日的最后期限之前采取了更激进的关税立场。与此同时，投资者的注意力转移到周四的欧洲央行政策决定和欧洲最大经济体发布的快速PMI上。欧洲央行预计将在连续八次降息后保持利率稳定，因为官员们权衡了持续的贸易不确定性、欧元坚挺和通胀放缓。货币市场完全预计到12月将降息25个基点，9月份降息的可能性约为50%。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ticked up to 2.62% on Wednesday, after falling more than 10 basis points over Monday and Tuesday, as the recently announced US-Japan trade agreement eased concerns over escalating global tariffs and rekindled hopes for a similar deal with the EU. Despite the relief, markets remain cautious. EU envoys are reportedly discussing contingency measures in case of a breakdown in trade talks with US President Donald Trump, who has adopted a more aggressive tariff stance ahead of the August 1 deadline. Meanwhile, investor focus shifts to Thursday’s ECB policy decision and the release of flash PMIs from Europe’s largest economies. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady following eight consecutive cuts, as officials weigh persistent trade uncertainty, a firm euro, and muted inflation. Money markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by December, with roughly a 50% probability of that move occurring in September.