美元指数 (DXY) 加自选

周四，美国股指上涨，主要股指在科技股强劲上涨的带动下，在前一交易日创下历史新高。周三，标准普尔500指数上涨0.58%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.12%，均创下新纪录，而道琼斯指数收盘持平。这一反弹是由人工智能相关的大型应用和芯片制造商推动的，在投资者对AMD与OpenAI的合作关系做出积极反应后，AMD飙升了11.4%。英伟达股价上涨2.2%，此前首席执行官黄仁勋表示，今年的计算需求“大幅增长”。其他主要科技股也上涨，包括博通（2.7%）、美光科技（5.8%）、特斯拉（1.2%）、亚马逊（1.5%）和甲骨文（1.5%）。与此同时，联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要显示，对政策前景的看法喜忧参半，投资者现在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔今天晚些时候的讲话。达美航空和百事公司的盈利报告也将公布。

US stock futures ticked higher on Thursday after major indexes rallied to new record highs in the previous session, led by strong gains in technology shares. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.58% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.12%, both setting fresh records, while the Dow ended flat. The rally was driven by AI-related megacaps and chipmakers, with AMD soaring 11.4% after investors reacted positively to its partnership with OpenAI. Nvidia gained 2.2% after CEO Jensen Huang said computing demand had “gone up substantially” this year. Other major tech names also rose, including Broadcom (2.7%), Micron Technology (5.8%), Tesla (1.2%), Amazon (1.5%), and Oracle (1.5%). Meanwhile, FOMC minutes revealed mixed views on the policy outlook, and investors now await remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today. Earnings reports from Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo are also due.

美国股市周三延续纪录，科技股领涨，投资者在政府长期停摆的情况下分析美联储的最新会议纪要，寻找政策线索。标准普尔500指数上涨0.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.1%，受人工智能相关大型应用和芯片制造商的强劲推动，道琼斯指数收平。自本周初以来，AMD盘中上涨11.3%，涨幅超过40%，因为市场继续评估这家芯片生产商与OpenAI的交易，在一系列循环交易中，这家ChatGPT制造商的交易额超过1万亿美元。美光公司上涨5.9%，而英伟达、甲骨文和亚马逊各上涨2%以上。与此同时，投资者权衡了联邦公开市场委员会上次会议的纪要，证实该委员会今年将进一步降息以缓解脆弱的劳动力市场，尽管政策制定者仍将面临通胀加剧。与此同时，思科在为数据中心发布新的人工智能芯片方面上涨了2%。相反，消费者防御性股票和银行下跌。

US stocks extended their records on Wednesday, as technology shares led gains and investors parsed the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes for policy clues amid a prolonged government shutdown. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.1%, buoyed by strength in AI-linked megacaps and chipmakers, while the Dow finished flat. AMD rallied 11.3% on the session to gain over 40% since the start of the week as markets continued to assess the chip-producer’s deal with OpenAI, marking over $1 trillion for the ChatGPT maker in a series of circular deals. Micron jumped 5.9% while Nvidia, Oracle, and Amazon advanced over 2% each. Meanwhile, investors weighed the minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting confirmed that the group sees more rate cuts this year to alleviate a fragile labor market, although policymakers still head to elevated inflation. Meanwhile, Cisco advanced 2% on the release of a new AI chip for datacenters. Conversely, consumer defensive stocks and banks were lower.

DXY展望：尽管利率押注较低，但由于全球货币疲软，美元仍在攀升。尽管美联储发出降息信号，但美元指数在欧元和日元疲软的支撑下上涨。交易员关注98.714支撑位和99.060突破位。

DXY Outlook: Dollar Climbs Despite Lower Rate Bets, Boosted by Global Currency Weakness.Despite Fed rate cut signals, the U.S. dollar index rises, supported by euro and yen weakness. Traders focus on 98.714 support and 99.060 breakout levels.

周三，10年期美国国债收益率为4.1%，在第三个交易日仍处于窄幅区间，因为市场等待美国缺乏经济数据的进一步催化剂。由于国会陷入僵局，美国政府仍处于关闭状态，阻止了市场和美联储用于衡量经济的主要经济数据的发布。因此，MOVE指数保持在近四年低点，尽管联邦公开市场委员会上次会议的纪要表明，美联储今年应继续降息以应对劳动力市场日益脆弱的局面，最近ADP私人就业人数的连续收缩证明了这一点。尽管如此，委员会的一部分成员表示，随着通货膨胀率居高不下，他们对宽松政策持谨慎态度。对持续通胀和美元走弱的担忧促使外国市场从美元资产转向贵金属，这与10年期国债拍卖疲软相一致，导致收益率达到盘中高点。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was at 4.1% mark on Wednesday, remaining in a narrow range for the third session as markets awaited further catalysts on the lack of economic data from the US. The US government remained shut down as Congress held its impasse, preventing the release of major economic data used by markets and the Federal Reserve to gauge the economy. Consequently, the MOVE index held at near four-year lows even though minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting indicated the Fed should continue cutting rates this year to counter the labor market’s increasing fragility, recently evidenced by back-to-back contractions in ADP private payrolls. Still, a portion of the committee expressed caution on easing policy as inflation remains elevated. Concerns of sustained inflation and a weaker greenback drove foreign markets to pivot out of dollar assets into precious metals, aligned with the weaker auction for the 10-year note that sparked yields to trade at session highs.