美元/印度卢比 (USDINR) 加自选

美国劳工统计局召回工作人员完成CPI报告，优先考虑社会保障和美联储时间表。据《纽约时报》援引特朗普政府官员的话说，美国劳工统计局（BLS）正在召回有限数量的休假员工，以完成9月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。此举标志着尽管政府正在关闭，但仍努力确保关键通胀数据的公布。

US BLS recalls staff to finish CPI report, prioritising Social Security and Fed timelines.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recalling a limited number of employees from furlough to complete the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, according to a Trump administration official cited by The New York Times. The move marks an effort to ensure that key inflation data are published despite the ongoing government shutdown.

印度储备银行的88.80线仍在发挥作用，美元创下两个月新高。预计周五印度卢比将保持在历史低点附近，在美元指数攀升至两个月高点后，印度储备银行对88.80水平的防御可能会再次面临压力。

RBI's 88.80 line remains in play with dollar scaling two-month high.The Indian rupee is expected to stay pinned near its all-time low on Friday, with the Reserve Bank of India's defence of the 88.80-level likely to come under renewed pressure following the dollar index's climb to a two-month high.

美联储的巴尔认为有必要保持谨慎，并指出支出增加和通胀居高不下。美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔在隔夜的一次演讲中表示，货币政策仍然“适度限制”，并支持在9月会议上将联邦基金利率下调25个基点的决定。他说，此举使立场“更接近中立”，但强调进一步的调整应取决于新的数据和不断变化的风险平衡。

Fed's Barr sees need for caution, notes stronger spending and sticky inflation.Fed Governor Michael Barr said in a speech overnight that monetary policy remains “modestly restrictive”, and supported the decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the September meeting. He said the move brought the stance “a bit closer toward neutral,” but emphasized that further adjustments should depend on new data and the evolving balance of risks.

周五，美元指数保持在99.3以上，本周有望上涨近2%，这是一年来最强劲的单周涨幅，受到日元和欧元大幅疲软的支撑。本周，在财政鸽派Sanae Takaichi赢得日本领导人竞选后，日元兑美元汇率将下跌近4%，这增强了人们对增加支出和宽松货币政策的预期。与此同时，在法国的政治动荡中，欧元兑美元汇率下跌了约1.5%，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙继续在不到两年的时间里寻找他的第六任总理。在美国，在参议院未能达成融资协议后，政府停摆延长至第九天，推迟了可能指导美联储降息前景的关键经济数据。市场目前认为，本月降息25个基点的可能性为95%，而12月加息的可能性已从90%降至80%。

The dollar index held above 99.3 on Friday and was on track to rise nearly 2% for the week, marking its strongest weekly advance in a year, supported by sharp weakness in the yen and euro. The yen is poised to drop almost 4% against the dollar this week after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s leadership race, reinforcing expectations of higher spending and loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, the euro has fallen about 1.5% versus the dollar amid political turmoil in France, where President Emmanuel Macron continues to search for his sixth prime minister in less than two years. In the US, the government shutdown extended into its ninth day after the Senate failed to reach a funding deal, delaying key economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. Markets now see a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this month, while odds for a December move have eased to 80% from 90%.