美元/离岸人民币 (USDCNH) 加自选

美元盘整，市场消化台币冲击波。美元指数（DXY）追踪美元（USD）对六种主要货币的表现，周二小幅下跌，但仍停留在非常狭窄的区间内。市场参与者正在评估台湾元（TWD）最近的大幅波动，周一对绿背升值超过5%，周二有所回落。

US Dollar consolidates as markets digest the Taiwanese Dollar's shockwave.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges lower while remaining stuck in a very tight range on Tuesday. Market participants are assessing the recent sharp move in the Taiwan Dollar (TWD), which appreciated by more than 5% against the Greenback on Monday before retreating somewhat on Tuesday.

美国物流经理指数从3月份的57.1升至2025年4月的58.8，表明物流业在经历了前一时期的大幅放缓后增长更快。库存水平继续上升，但速度较慢（57.1比61.2），表明季节性库存恢复正常，这与第一季度疯狂的库存水平上升有所不同。尽管如此，库存成本增加（75.6比70.6），仓储价格上涨幅度更大（72.3比61），这表明第一季度涌入的大部分库存仍滞留在存储设施中，没有出售给消费者。与此同时，运输指标显示出一些优势，运输价格（62.3比56.4）和运输能力（55.2比53.6）上涨。如果进口出现回落，市场是否会继续表现强劲，这将是一件有趣的事情。

The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US rose to 58.8 in April 2025 from 57.1 in March, pointing to a faster growth in the logistics sector, following a big slowdown in the previous period. Inventory Levels continued increasing, but at a slower pace (57.1 vs 61.2), representing a return to normal seasonal inventory build-up, which is a departure from the frantic Inventory Level increases seen in Q1. Despite this, Inventory Costs increased (75.6 vs 70.6) and Warehousing Prices were up to an even greater extent (72.3 vs 61), suggesting that much of the inventory that was rushed in during Q1 is still sitting stagnant in storage facilities and not being sold to consumers. Meanwhile, transportation metrics showed some strength, as Transportation Prices (62.3 vs 56.4) and Transportation Capacity (55.2 vs 53.6) were up. It will be interesting to see whether the market continues to show strength if there is a pullback in imports.

欧盟的塞夫科维奇：欧盟并不感到软弱，也没有压力接受与美国的不公平协议。欧盟并不感到软弱，也没有压力接受与美国的不公平协议。美国的关税是不公平的。

EU's Sefcovic: EU doesn't feel weak or under pressure to accept unfair deal with the US.EU doesn't feel weak or under pressure to accept unfair deal with the US. The US tariffs are unfair.

周二，美国10年期国债收益率升至4.37%，创下约两周来的最高水平，投资者密切关注贸易紧张局势，等待联邦公开市场委员会明天的决定。虽然人们普遍预计美联储将保持联邦基金利率不变，但市场将关注有关未来政策方向的任何信号，以及美联储对特朗普总统贸易政策经济影响的评估。美国和几个亚洲国家之间的贸易谈判预计将于本周恢复，尽管与中国的讨论似乎已经停滞。在数据方面，ISM服务业报告显示，活动急剧扩张，同时成本压力激增，加强了上周就业报告中的强劲表现。这些强劲的数据与贸易紧张局势相关的经济紧张迹象形成鲜明对比，包括第一季度GDP收缩、新关税前进口激增以及港口吞吐量急剧下降。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose toward 4.37% on Tuesday, marking its highest level in about two weeks, as investors closely monitored trade tensions and awaited the FOMC decision due tomorrow. While the Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, markets will be watching for any signals regarding future policy direction and the central bank’s assessment of the economic impact of President Trump’s trade policies. Trade negotiations between the US and several Asian countries are expected to resume this week, though discussions with China appear to have stalled. On the data front, the ISM services report showed a sharp expansion in activity alongside a surge in cost pressures, reinforcing the strength seen in last week’s jobs report. These robust figures contrasted with signs of economic strain linked to trade tensions, including a Q1 GDP contraction, a spike in imports ahead of new tariffs, and a sharp decline in port volumes.