澳元/瑞郎 (AUDCHF) 加自选

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元进入周末有点喜忧参半。周五凌晨，美元走势有点喜忧参半，因为周末将发生一系列有趣的事件。目前，美元已经超卖，但我们需要一个催化剂才能在这种环境下行动起来。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar a bit Mixed Heading into the Weekend.The US dollar is a bit mixed in the early hours of Friday, as the weekend is going to be an interesting set of events just waiting to happen. At this point, the dollar is oversold, but we would need a catalyst to get moving in this environment.

2025年第一季度，瑞士的经常账户盈余从去年同期的94亿瑞士法郎急剧扩大到194亿瑞士法郎。这是自2022年第三季度以来最大的经常账户盈余。商品账户盈余从251亿瑞士法郎增至370亿瑞士法郎，而主要收入赤字从763亿瑞士法郎略微收窄至751亿瑞士法郎。与此同时，服务账户缺口从一年前的597亿瑞士法郎扩大到771亿瑞士法郎，二级收入赤字也从216亿瑞士法郎增加到242亿瑞士法郎。

Switzerland's current account surplus widened sharply to CHF 19.4 billion in the first quarter of 2025, from CHF 9.4 billion in the same period of the previous year. This marked the largest current account surplus since the third quarter of 2022. The goods account surplus rose to CHF 37 billion from CHF 25.1 billion, while the primary income deficit narrowed slightly to CHF 75.1 billion from CHF 76.3 billion. Meanwhile, the services account shortfall widened to CHF 77.1 billion from CHF 59.7 billion a year earlier, and the secondary income deficit also increased to CHF 24.2 billion from CHF 21.6 billion.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五下跌0.2%，收于8506点，标志着连续第四个交易日下跌，创下两周新低。该指数本周也下跌了0.5%，结束了连续五周的上涨，因为中东紧张局势的加剧继续给全球市场带来压力。投资者现在正在为美国可能在两周内做出的决定做准备，因为特朗普总统正在权衡对伊朗的潜在直接打击。与此同时，中国央行保持贷款最优惠利率不变，通过政策稳定为市场情绪提供适度支持。在国内，一份喜忧参半的就业报告几乎没有改变预期，7月份澳大利亚储备银行降息的可能性仍为75%。市场现在等待即将公布的PMI数据，以获得对澳大利亚经济健康状况的新见解。在企业方面，由于中国钢铁产量下降，主要铁矿石矿商领跌，如Fortescue（-0.5%）和力拓（-1.3%）。金融股也面临压力，下跌0.7%。另一方面，能源和黄金股提供了支撑。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to close at 8,506 on Friday, marking its fourth straight session of losses and a two-week low. The index also declined 0.5% for the week, ending a five-week winning streak, as rising Middle East tensions continued to weigh on global markets. Investors are now bracing for a possible US decision within two weeks, as President Trump weighs a potential direct strike on Iran. Meanwhile, China’s central bank left its loan prime rates unchanged, offering modest support to sentiment through policy stability. At home, a mixed jobs report did little to shift expectations, with a July RBA rate cut still priced at a 75% probability. Markets now await upcoming PMI figures for fresh insight over Australia’s economic health. On the corporate front, major iron ore miners led losses, such as Fortescue (-0.5%) and Rio Tinto (-1.3%), amid a drop in Chinese steel production. Financials also came under pressure, down 0.7%. On the flip side, energy and gold stocks provided support.

澳元/日元攀升至94.35-94.40阻力区；上行潜力似乎有限。澳元/日元交叉盘建立在隔夜从93.80区域反弹的基础上，并在周五的亚洲时段获得了一些积极的牵引力。然而，由于基本面信号喜忧参半，现货价格仍局限在多日的区间内，目前交易在94.35-94.40的水平阻力位附近，当日涨幅不到0.10%。

AUD/JPY climbs to 94.35-94.40 resistance zone; upside potential seems limited.The AUD/JPY cross is building on the overnight bounce from the 93.80 area and gaining some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, remain confined within a multi-day-old range amid mixed fundamental cues and currently trade around the 94.35-94.40 horizontal resistance, up less than 0.10% for the day.