澳元/瑞郎 (AUDCHF) 加自选

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三上涨0.7%，收于8737点，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，矿业和能源股领涨。在美国总统特朗普与日本达成贸易协议后，市场情绪得到提振，而美中贸易谈判在8月12日最后期限之前加强。在当地，最新数据显示，西太平洋银行领先指数在6月份放缓至0.03%，反映出由于大宗商品价格疲软和工作时间减少，势头减弱。现在的焦点转移到今天晚些时候公布的PMI数据，以了解7月份的商业状况。在企业新闻方面，能源股连续第五个交易日延续涨势，伍德赛德能源在第二季度强劲销售后上涨1.6%，至近一个月高点。交易员对路易斯安那液化天然气交易降低的风险反应积极。矿业板块也上涨1%，达到9个月高点，必和必拓（0.8%）、力拓（1%）和Fortescue（2.3%）均创下数月新高，这得益于中国宣布建造世界上最大的水电站大坝计划后，大宗商品需求的强劲。

The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% to close at 8,737 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, led by mining and energy stocks. Market sentiment was lifted after US President Trump struck a trade deal with Japan, while US–China trade talks intensified ahead of the August 12 deadline. Locally, latest data showed Westpac Leading Index slowed to 0.03% in June, reflecting weaker momentum due to softer commodity prices and reduced work hours. Focus now shifts to PMI data due later today for insight into July’s business conditions. In corporate news, energy stocks extended gains for a fifth session, with Woodside Energy up 1.6% to a near 1-month high after strong Q2 sales. Traders reacted positively to its reduced risk from the Louisiana LNG deal. The mining sector also rose 1% to a 9-month high, with BHP (0.8%), Rio Tinto (1%), and Fortescue (2.3%) all hitting multi-month highs, supported by stronger commodity demand after China announced plans for the world’s largest hydropower dam.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.29%，停止了两天的下跌，因为投资者权衡了贸易发展的进展。唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布与日本达成贸易协议，包括对所有进口日本商品征收15%的关税，低于拟议的25%，这有助于缓解人们对贸易紧张局势加剧的担忧。在国内方面，澳大利亚储备银行7月份会议的纪要显示了7月份的谨慎立场，大多数成员认为，在四次会议上进行三次降息与其谨慎渐进的宽松战略不一致。相反，他们更愿意等待通胀持续放缓的更多证据。尽管如此，市场预计8月份降息的可能性接近100%，到年底，利率将触底至3.10%。投资者将密切关注澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克周四的演讲，以获取有关政策前景的进一步线索，以及PMI预览数据，以获取对经济势头的新见解。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held steady at 4.29%, halting a two-day decline as investors weighed progress on trade developments. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan—including a 15% tariff on all imported Japanese goods, down from a proposed 25%—helping to allay fears of heightened trade tensions. On the domestic front, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's July meeting showed a cautious stance in July, with most members arguing three cuts in four meetings was inconsistent with its strategy of easing in a cautious and gradual manner. Instead, they preferred to wait for more evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation. Still, markets are pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a rate cut in August, with rates seen bottoming at 3.10% by year-end. Investors will be closely watching a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday for further clues on policy outlook, as well as flash PMI readings for fresh insights into economic momentum.

周三，澳元微涨至0.656美元左右，标志着连续第四个交易日上涨，这得益于全球贸易新发展带来的市场情绪改善。此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二宣布与日本达成一项重大关税协议，包括对日本出口征收15%的关税，而美中贸易谈判也在8月12日最后期限之前取得了进展。财政部长斯科特·贝森特将于下周在斯德哥尔摩会见中国官员，寻求延长最后期限并促进美国出口。在国内，最新数据显示，6月份西太平洋银行领先指数放缓至0.03%，反映出由于大宗商品价格疲软和工作时间减少，势头减弱。市场也权衡了美联储的谨慎立场，会议纪要显示，成员国倾向于逐步放松政策，并更愿意等待通胀放缓的更明显迹象。现在的焦点转移到今天晚些时候公布的PMI数据，以了解7月份的商业状况。

The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.656 on Wednesday, marking its fourth straight session of gains, supported by improved market sentiment amid fresh global trade developments. This followed Tuesday’s announcement by US President Donald Trump of a major tariff deal with Japan, including a 15% levy on Japanese exports, while US–China trade talks are also gaining momentum ahead of the August 12 deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet Chinese officials next week in Stockholm to seek a deadline extension and promote US exports. Domestically, latest data showed the Westpac Leading Index slowed to 0.03% in June, reflecting weaker momentum due to softer commodity prices and reduced work hours. Markets also weighed the Reserve Bank’s cautious stance, with meeting minutes showing members favor a gradual easing path and prefer to await clearer signs of slowing inflation. Focus now shifts to PMI data due later today for insight into July’s business conditions.

澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数跌至0.03%，预示下半年疲软。澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数在5月份从0.11%跌至0.03%，延续了六个月的下滑趋势，表明2025年下半年的势头减弱。该指数为未来三到九个月的经济活动提供了指导，与12月的0.33%相比有所下降，八个组成部分中有五个拖累，特别是大宗商品价格、消费者信心和工作时间。

Australia Westpac leading index falls to 0.03%, signals weak H2.Australia's Westpac Leading Index slipped from 0.11% to just 0.03% in May, continuing a six-month slide that points to weakening momentum heading into the second half of 2025. The index, which provides a guide to economic activity three to nine months ahead, has lost altitude from 0.33% in December, with five of eight components dragging—particularly commodity prices, consumer sentiment, and hours worked.