新加坡元/瑞郎 (SGDCHF) 加自选

瑞士将利率降至零：负利率会卷土重来吗？。周四，瑞士国家银行（SNB）将利率下调25个基点至0%，在对通货紧缩和瑞士法郎持续走强的担忧再次出现之际，加深了其鸽派立场。这一备受期待的举措增加了瑞士自2022年以来首次重新审视负利率的可能性。

Switzerland cuts rates to zero: are negative interest rates coming back?.The Switzerland National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% on Thursday, deepening its dovish stance amid renewed concerns over deflation and persistent strength in the Swiss franc. The widely anticipated move raises the possibility of Switzerland revisiting negative interest rates for the first time since 2022.

受中东紧张局势升级以及瑞士国家银行和美联储的关键政策决定的推动，10年期瑞士政府债券收益率升至0.3%。随着以色列和伊朗之间的冲突恶化，地缘政治风险加剧，美国总统特朗普警告称，美国可能会支持以色列对德黑兰的空袭。在货币方面，瑞士国家银行将政策利率降至0%，这是连续第六次降息。此举是在通胀下降、法郎升值压力以及与美国拟议关税相关的全球不确定性日益增加的情况下做出的。瑞士5月通胀率四年来首次转为负值，低于瑞士央行0-2%的目标区间，增加了恢复负利率的可能性。与此同时，美联储保持利率稳定，但暗示今年晚些时候可能会降息。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose to 0.3%, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and key policy decisions from both the Swiss National Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Geopolitical risks intensified as the conflict between Israel and Iran worsened, with US President Trump warning that the US could potentially support Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. On the monetary front, the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0%, marking a sixth consecutive cut. The move comes amid declining inflation, appreciation pressure on the franc, and growing global uncertainty tied to proposed US tariffs. Swiss inflation turned negative in May for the first time in four years, falling below the SNB’s 0–2% target range and raising the prospect of a return to negative interest rates. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but signaled that cuts could be likely later this year.

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率几乎没有变化，为0.82，徘徊在2011年以来的最高水平附近，因为投资者在中东紧张局势加剧之际寻求安全资产，并消化了瑞士国家银行和美联储的新政策决定。随着以色列和伊朗之间的冲突升级，地缘政治担忧加剧，美国总统特朗普警告称，美国可能会支持以色列对德黑兰的空袭。在货币方面，瑞士央行将政策利率降至0%，这是其连续第六次降息，以应对通胀下降、法郎升值压力以及美国拟议关税加剧的全球不确定性。随着5月份通货膨胀率四年来首次转为负值——未达到瑞士央行0-2%的目标区间——央行现在正接近恢复负利率。与此同时，美联储保持利率稳定，并表示今年晚些时候可能会降息。

The Swiss franc was little changed at 0.82 per US dollar, hovering near its strongest level since 2011, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid mounting tensions in the Middle East and digested fresh policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Geopolitical concerns intensified as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, with US President Trump warning that the US could potentially support Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. On the monetary front, the SNB cut its policy rate to 0%, marking its sixth consecutive rate reduction, in response to falling inflation, upward pressure on the franc, and heightened global uncertainty fueled by proposed US tariffs. With inflation turning negative in May for the first time in four years—missing the SNB’s target range of 0–2%—the central bank is now nearing a return to negative interest rates. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve held rates steady and indicated that rate cuts could be on the horizon later this year.

正如预期的那样，瑞士国家银行（SNB）在2025年6月将政策利率下调25个基点至0%，自2022年底负利率以来首次将借贷成本设定为零。此举是在通胀压力缓解和全球经济前景疲软之际做出的。瑞士5月消费者价格下跌0.1%，为四年来首次下跌，主要原因是旅游业和石油产品价格下跌。瑞士央行目前预计2025年的平均通胀率为0.2%，2026年为0.5%，2027年为0.7%。瑞士国内生产总值在2025年第一季度也实现了强劲增长，部分原因是在新关税之前对美国的早期出口，尽管潜在势头较为温和。预计未来几个季度的增长将放缓，2025年和2026年的GDP增长预测为1%至1.5%。与此同时，由于贸易紧张局势加剧，全球前景恶化，给瑞士的贸易前景增加了更多的不确定性。

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 0% in June 2025, as expected, setting borrowing costs at zero for the first time since negative rates in late 2022. The move came amid easing inflationary pressures and a weakening global economic outlook. Consumer prices in Switzerland fell by 0.1% in May, marking the first decline in four years, mainly driven by lower prices in tourism and oil products. The SNB now projects average inflation at 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027. Swiss GDP also posted strong growth in the first quarter of 2025, partly supported by early exports to the US ahead of new tariffs, although underlying momentum was more modest. Growth is expected to slow in the coming quarters, with GDP expansion forecast at 1% to 1.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, the global outlook has deteriorated due to rising trade tensions, adding further uncertainty to Switzerland’s trade prospects.