新加坡元/瑞郎 (SGDCHF) 加自选

新加坡的经济增长预计将在2025年下半年放缓，尽管由于美国新关税之前的前期出口，第二季度经济增长强于预期的4.3%。新加坡金融管理局局长Chia Der Jiun周二表示，这一前景与全球经济活动和外部需求疲软的预期一致。贾指出：“关税的程度和范围、贸易协定是否达成并被证明是持久的，以及不断升级的贸易冲突是否会再次发生，都有各种可能性。”。这个城市国家已经将全年GDP预测从早些时候的1-3%下调至0-2%。尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普最近宣布从8月1日开始对20多个国家征收20-50%的全面新关税，但新加坡尚未收到通知，仍需遵守4月份宣布的10%的基准关税。

Singapore's economic growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 despite a stronger-than-expected 4.3% expansion in Q2 due to front-loaded exports ahead of new U.S. tariffs. Monetary Authority of Singapore chief Chia Der Jiun said on Tuesday that the outlook aligns with expectations of weaker global activity and external demand. “There is a range of possibilities around the extent and scope of tariffs, whether trade agreements are concluded and prove to be durable, and whether escalating trade conflicts recur,” Chia noted. The city-state had already lowered its full-year GDP forecast to 0–2%, down from an earlier 1–3%. Although U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced sweeping new tariffs of 20–50% on over 20 countries starting August 1, Singapore has not yet been notified and remains subject to a 10% baseline tariff announced in April.

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率升至0.48%左右，为4月18日以来的最高水平，因投资者对全球贸易紧张局势的重新爆发做出了反应。在针对多个合作伙伴的一系列升级贸易措施之后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁对来自欧盟和墨西哥的进口商品征收30%的关税，这给市场增加了新的不确定性。瑞士仍在等待美国正式的海关信函，尽管一份贸易协议草案表明，该国可能会获得优惠待遇，以避免与制药相关的关税。在货币政策方面，6月份高于预期的通胀报告抑制了人们对瑞士国家银行进一步放宽政策的预期。6月份通货膨胀率恢复到0.1%的正区间，令预测CPI下降0.1%的市场感到惊讶。瑞士央行官员预计将在9月份将利率稳定在0%，许多分析师预测，利率可能会在2026年之前保持在这一水平。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose to around 0.48%, its highest since April 18, as investors reacted to renewed global trade tensions. US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico added fresh uncertainty to markets, following a series of escalatory trade measures targeting multiple partners. Switzerland is still awaiting a formal US customs letter, though a draft trade deal suggests the country could receive preferential treatment to avoid pharma-related tariffs. On the monetary policy front, June's hotter-than-expected inflation report dampened expectations of further policy easing by the Swiss National Bank. Inflation returned to positive territory in June at 0.1%, surprising markets that had predicted a 0.1% decline in CPI. The SNB officials are expected to keep the interest rate steady at 0% in September, with many analysts forecasting that it will likely remain at that level through 2026.

2025年6月，瑞士的生产者价格和进口价格同比下降0.7%，与上月持平。这标志着连续第26个下降期，也是自2024年12月以来的最大降幅，因为进口成本继续下降（-2.8%对5月份的-2.9%）。此外，生产者价格指数从上月的0.4%降至0.3%。按月计算，6月份生产者价格和进口价格下降了0.1%，超出了0.2%的增长预期，但与前一时期0.4%的跌幅相比有所缓解。这一下降主要是由于石油价格下降，而食品以及石油和天然气变得昂贵。

Switzerland’s producer and import prices dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the same pace as in the previous month. This marked the 26th consecutive period of decline and still the steepest since December 2024, as import costs continued to decrease (-2.8% vs -2.9% in May). Additionally, producer prices slowed to 0.3% from 0.4% in the prior month. On a monthly basis, producer and import prices fell by 0.1% in June, defying expectations of a 0.2% increase, but easing from a 0.4% loss in the preceding period. The decrease was driven mainly by cheaper petroleum prices, while food products, as well as petroleum and natural gas became costly.

瑞士消费者信心指数从去年同月的-37升至2025年6月的-32，超过了市场预期的-35。与一年前相比，大多数组成部分都有所改善：对过去财务状况的评估从-56上升到-36，预期财务状况从-36改善到-27，重大采购时间指数从-35上升到-27。与此同时，对预期经济发展的看法进一步恶化，从2024年6月的-19降至-38。

Switzerland’s consumer confidence index rose to -32 in June 2025 from -37 in the same month last year, beating market expectations of -35. Most components showed improvement compared to a year ago: the assessment of the past financial situation rose to -36 from -56, the expected financial situation improved to -27 from -36, and the index for the timing of major purchases increased to -27 from -35. Meanwhile, views on expected economic development deteriorated further, falling to -38 from -19 in June 2024.