新加坡元/港币 (SGDHKD) 加自选

周二，恒生指数上涨158点，涨幅0.7%，收于22663点的一个月高点，标志着在贸易紧张局势缓解的迹象下连续第四次上涨。特朗普总统周日表示，美国正在与包括中国在内的几个国家就贸易协议进行接触。在当地，香港经济在2025年第一季度同比增长3.1%，这是五个季度以来最强劲的增长速度，这是受美国计划上调关税之前强劲的旅游业和强劲的出口推动的。人民币反弹至一个半月高点，香港金融管理局为支持美元而进行的干预也提振了市场情绪。然而，数据显示，在关税风险的影响下，中国4月份的服务业活动增长是7个月来最低的，这限制了涨幅。与此同时，美国期货在美联储政策会议之前略有下跌，预计周三将作出利率决定。大多数行业上涨，金融、消费者和房地产领涨。农夫山泉股价上涨6.8%，紧随其后的是周大福（5.7%）、金沙中国（5.2%）和美团（4.6%）。

The Hang Seng advanced 158 points or 0.7% to end at a one-month peak of 22,663 on Tuesday, marking its fourth straight gain amid signs of easing trade tensions. President Trump said Sunday that the U.S. was engaging with several countries, including China, on trade deals. Locally, Hong Kong’s economy grew 3.1% yoy in Q1 2025—the strongest pace in five quarters—driven by strong tourism and robust exports ahead of planned U.S. tariff hikes. A rally in the yuan to a 1-1/2-month high and intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to support the local dollar also lifted sentiment. However, gains were capped by data showing China’s services activity in April grew the least in seven months amid tariff risks. Meanwhile, U.S. futures dipped slightly ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, with a rate decision expected Wednesday. Most sectors advanced, led by financials, consumers, and property. Nongfu Spring jumped 6.8%, followed by Chow Tai Fook (5.7%), Sands China (5.2%), and Meituan (4.6%).

香港股市周二早盘上涨142点，涨幅0.6%，至22645点，标志着股市在假期后重新开盘，连续第四个交易日上涨。基础广泛的行业上涨，尤其是金融、房地产和消费者板块，推动该指数创下一个月新高。闪电数据显示，该市经济在2025年第一季度同比增长3.1%，为五个季度以来最强劲的增速，这进一步提振了市场情绪，这得益于旅游活动和美国总统特朗普计划提高关税之前的强劲出口。在中国，股市也恢复了活动，有迹象表明，北京对美国关于145%关税谈判的提议持开放态度。然而，隔夜华尔街的下跌限制了进一步的上涨。与此同时，一项私人调查显示，4月份中国服务业的增长是7个月来最低的，因为新订单大幅放缓，市场情绪接近历史最低水平。大盘股中涨幅最大的包括金沙中国（6.6%）、周大福（6.4%）、农夫山泉（5.7%）和美团（4.1%）。

Hong Kong equities rose 142 points or 0.6%, to 22,645 in early trading on Tuesday, marking a fourth straight session of gains as markets reopened after a holiday. Broad-based sector gains—particularly in financials, property, and consumers—pushed the index to a one-month high. Sentiment was further boosted by flash data showing the city’s economy grew 3.1% yoy in Q1 of 2025, the strongest pace in five quarters, driven by tourism activity and robust exports ahead of U.S. President Trump’s planned tariff hikes. In China, stock markets also resumed activity amid signs that Beijing is open to U.S. proposals for talks over 145% tariffs. However, further gains were limited by losses on Wall Street overnight. Meanwhile, a private survey reported China’s services sector grew the least in seven months in April, as new orders slowed sharply and sentiment neared a record low. Top gainers among large caps included Sands China (6.6%), Chow Tai Fook (6.4%), Nongfu Spring (5.7%), and Meituan (4.1%).

标准普尔全球新加坡采购经理人指数从3月份的52.7上升至2025年4月的52.8，为去年11月以来的最高水平，这得益于新工作流入的增加。产出和新订单增长加速至去年以来的最快速度，来自美国的订单增加，因为客户在关税上调之前急于下订单。新业务量的增加导致采购活动再次扩大，采购库存也随着投入采购的增加而增长。与此同时，由于对未来活动的乐观情绪减弱，积压的工作急剧增加，就业人数连续第五个月下降。在价格方面，由于购买价格通胀疲软，投入成本通胀降至2021年8月以来的最低水平。与此同时，在支持销售的努力下，产出价格自2021年1月以来首次下跌。最后，市场情绪降至两年多来的最低水平，反映出对贸易和全球增长前景的担忧。

The S&P Global Singapore PMI increased to 52.8 in April 2025, up from March’s 52.7, marking the highest reading since last November, supported by rising new work inflows. Output and new order growth accelerated to the fastest pace since last year, with orders from the US rising as clients rushed to place orders ahead of higher tariffs. Greater volumes of new business led to another expansion in purchasing activity, and stocks of purchases also grew alongside increased input buying. Meanwhile, employment declined for the fifth consecutive month, as optimism regarding future activity softened and the backlog of work rose sharply. On prices, input cost inflation eased to its lowest level since August 2021, driven by softening purchase price inflation. At the same time, output prices fell for the first time since January 2021, amid efforts to support sales. Finally, sentiment weakened to the lowest level in over two years, reflecting concerns about the outlook for trade and global growth.

2025年3月，新加坡零售额同比增长1.1%，从前一个月略微修正的3.5%的下降中恢复过来，标志着今年的第二次年度增长。多个类别的销售额出现反弹，包括超市（2月份为3.4%对-13.3%）、家具和家用设备（2.5%对-3.0%）以及娱乐用品（3.2%对-8.2%）。化妆品和洗漱用品（3.6%对2.8%）以及手表和珠宝（13.5%对2.8%）的增长也有所回升。与此同时，百货商店（-2.4%对-16.7%）、迷你商场（-3.0%对-6.0%）、食品和酒精（-5.1%对-12.1%）、汽油服务（-8.2%对-10.6%）和服装（-8.0%对-18.5%）的跌幅有所放缓。然而，机动车的销售增长大幅放缓（3.3%对20.0%），而光学商品和书籍（-6.2%对6.8%）和其他（-1.9%对4.9%）再次出现下降。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，零售贸易下降2.8%，扭转了2月份3.0%的增长，出现了三个月来的首次月度下降。

Retail sales in Singapore rose 1.1% year-on-year in March 2025, recovering from a marginally revised 3.5% drop in the previous month and marking the second annual increase this year. Sales rebounded in several categories, including supermarkets (3.4% vs -13.3% in February), furniture & household equipment (2.5% vs -3.0%), and recreational goods (3.2% vs -8.2%). Growth also picked up for cosmetics & toiletries (3.6% vs 2.8%) and watches & jewelry (13.5% vs 2.8%). Meanwhile, declines moderated for department stores (-2.4% vs -16.7%), mini-marts (-3.0% vs -6.0%), food & alcohol (-5.1% vs -12.1%), petrol services (-8.2% vs -10.6%), and apparel (-8.0% vs -18.5%). However, sales growth for motor vehicles slowed sharply (3.3% vs 20.0%), while optical goods & books (-6.2% vs 6.8%) and others (-1.9% vs 4.9%) posted renewed declines. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade fell by 2.8%, reversing a 3.0% gain in February and posting the first monthly decline in three months.