澳元/港币 (AUDHKD) 加自选

周五，澳元保持在0.652美元左右的近期涨幅，并有望实现0.8%的稳健周涨幅，这得益于美国经济疲软和对美联储降息的日益增长的预期，这给美元带来了压力。有报道称，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）是领导央行的主要竞争者，他最早将于9月进一步加强市场对政策转变的押注。在国内，最近的数据显示了强劲的贸易平衡数据，以及好于预期的中国贸易顺差，增加了对中国代理货币的支持。然而，澳元仍面临压力，因为市场完全消化了降息25个基点的预期，以及澳大利亚储备银行在下周会议上大幅降息50个基点的可能性很小。澳大利亚储备银行还将发布最新预测，预计将显示GDP疲软和失业率上升，支持进一步降息的理由。尽管如此，澳大利亚储备银行仍强调谨慎的宽松政策，预计9月利率将保持稳定，11月可能会降息。

The Australian dollar held its recent gains around $0.652 on Friday and was on track for a solid 0.8% weekly advance, buoyed by a weak US economy and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut that pressured the greenback. Reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is a leading contender to head the central bank further strengthened market bets on a policy shift as early as September. Domestically, recent data showed strong trade balance figures, along with a better-than-expected trade surplus in China, adding support for the China-proxy currency. However, the Aussie remained under pressure as markets fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut and slim odds of an outsized 50bps cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at next week’s meeting. The RBA is also set to release updated forecasts, expected to show weaker GDP and higher unemployment, supporting the case for more rate cuts. Still, the RBA emphasized cautious easing, with rates expected steady in September and cuts likely in November.