澳元/港币 (AUDHKD) 加自选

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率在上一交易日触及七周高点后跌至4.41%，投资者将注意力转向即将公布的就业数据。市场预计将增加2万个工作岗位，失业率稳定在4.1%。劳动力市场保持了令人惊讶的弹性，这促成了澳大利亚储备银行对货币宽松政策的谨慎立场。上周，澳大利亚储备银行将现金利率稳定在3.85%，将宽松至3.60%的押注混淆了。目前，市场预计8月份降息的可能性为80%，尽管这在很大程度上取决于7月底发布的第二季度CPI报告。与此同时，在美国，数据显示，6月份消费者通胀率升至四个月高点，导致交易员降低了对美联储近期降息的预期。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell toward 4.41% after hitting an over seven-week high in the previous session, as investors turned their focus to upcoming jobs data. Market expectations are centered on an increase of 20,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 4.1%. The labor market has remained surprisingly resilient, which has contributed to the RBA’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Last week, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.85%, confounding wagers for an easing to 3.60%. Currently, markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut in August, though much will depend on the second-quarter CPI report due at the end of July. Meanwhile, in the US, data showed that consumer inflation rose to a four-month high in June, leading traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term.

香港股市周三上午上涨174点，涨幅0.7%，至24760点，延续了第五个交易日的涨幅，创下四个月来的最高水平。尽管美国加征关税，但中国经济似乎具有弹性，市场情绪依然乐观。官方数据显示，2025年第二季度，该国国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，略高于5.1%的预测，尽管这是三个季度以来最慢的增速。与此同时，分析人士指出，英伟达恢复向中国销售H20人工智能芯片可能预示着在8月最后期限之前与美国进行贸易谈判的积极基调。大多数行业上涨，科技股、消费股和金融股领涨，交易员对6月份核心通胀低于预期后美国期货小幅下跌不以为然。围绕即将召开的7月政治局会议，乐观情绪也在增长，希望它可能会提供新的措施来维持2025年下半年的增长。早期上涨股包括安踏体育（4.5%）、阿克苏（3.8%）、Trip.com（3.7%）、快手科技（3.0%）和美团（2.2%）。

Hong Kong shares climbed 174 points or 0.7% to 24,760 on Wednesday morning, extending gains for the fifth session and notching their highest level in four months. Sentiment remained upbeat as China’s economy appeared resilient despite U.S. tariffs. Official data showed the country's GDP grew 5.2% yoy in Q2 2025, slightly above a 5.1% forecast, though it was the slowest pace in three quarters. Meanwhile, analysts noted that Nvidia’s resumption of H20 AI chip sales to China could signal a positive tone for trade talks with the U.S. ahead of the August deadline. Most sectors rose, led by tech, consumer, and financial stocks, as traders shrugged off a modest dip in U.S. futures after a softer-than-expected core inflation print for June. Optimism also grew around the upcoming July Politburo meeting, with hopes it may deliver fresh measures to sustain growth in H2 of 2025. Early gainers included Anta Sports (4.5%), Akeso (3.8%), Trip.com (3.7%), Kuaishou Tech. (3.0%), and Meituan (2.2%).

周三，澳元走强至0.653美元左右，结束了连续三天的下跌，因为投资者将注意力转向周四的劳动力市场数据，这可能为短期政策前景提供新的见解。澳大利亚储备银行最近采取了谨慎的数据驱动立场，理由是通胀前景更加平衡，劳动力市场持续具有弹性。一份强劲的就业报告可能会对下个月会议上80%的市场暗示降息概率产生怀疑。市场目前预计6月份将增加2万个工作岗位，失业率不变，为4.1%。与此同时，美国6月通胀数据高于预期，使美联储9月降息的希望渺茫，并重新引发了对进口税上调的担忧，限制了对风险敏感的澳元的涨幅。在贸易方面，特朗普将印尼商品的关税降至19%，以换取重大采购承诺，同时警告对小国征收超过10%的关税。

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.653 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors turned their attention to Thursday’s labor market data, which could provide fresh insight into the near-term policy outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia has recently adopted a cautious, data-driven stance, citing a more balanced inflation outlook and ongoing labor market resilience. A robust jobs report could cast doubt on the 80% market-implied probability of a rate cut at next month’s meeting. Markets are currently expecting a gain of 20,000 jobs in June and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%. Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected US inflation data for June dimmed hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and revived concerns over higher import levies, limiting gains for the risk sensitive Aussie. On the trade front, Trump cuts tariffs on Indonesian goods to 19% in exchange for major purchase commitments, while warning of over 10% tariffs on smaller nations.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三下跌近1%，至8545点左右，从前一交易日的创纪录水平回落，受黄金股大幅下跌拖累。由于6月通胀数据高于预期，引发了人们对长期高利率和潜在进口税的担忧，华尔街隔夜的微弱领先抑制了市场情绪。在最新的贸易新闻中，特朗普将印尼商品的关税降至19%，以换取重大的购买承诺，同时警告对小国征收超过10%的关税。在国内，焦点转向周四的就业报告，预计6月份将增加2万个工作岗位，失业率稳定在4.1%。市场预计，8月份澳大利亚储备银行降息的可能性为80%，到2026年初，将有75个基点的宽松政策。在企业方面，金矿商股价下跌2.7%，为7月9日以来最大盘中跌幅，纽蒙特暴跌4.8%，北极星下跌2.4%。医疗保健、主要银行和矿商也面临压力。

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped nearly 1% to around 8,545 on Wednesday, retreating from a record level finish in the prior session, dragged down by sharp losses in gold stocks. Sentiment was dampened by a weak lead from Wall Street overnight, as hotter-than-expected June inflation data reignited concerns about prolonged high interest rates and potential import levies. In the latest trade news, Trump cuts tariffs on Indonesian goods to 19% in exchange for major purchase commitments, while warning of over 10% tariffs on smaller nations. At home, focus turns to Thursday’s jobs report, with expectations for a gain of 20 thousand jobs in June and a steady unemployment rate of 4.1%. Markets see an 80% chance of an RBA rate cut in August, with 75 bps of easing priced in by early 2026. On the corporate side, gold miners fell as much as 2.7% in their biggest intraday drop since July 9, with Newmont plunging 4.8% and Northern Star down 2.4%. Healthcare, major banks, and miners were also under pressure.