英镑/港币 (GBPHKD) 加自选

英镑/日元价格预测：上涨势头接近198.50，看涨前景保持不变。周五欧洲早盘，英镑/日元交叉盘上涨至198.40左右。由于风险情绪改善，日元（JPY）兑英镑（GBP）走弱。

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum to near 198.50, bullish outlook remains intact.The GBP/JPY cross gains ground to around 198.40 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) due to improved risk sentiment.

2025年5月，英国汽车产量同比下降32.8%，至49810辆，受工厂中断和美国新关税的影响。除2020年受疫情影响的年份外，这是自1949年以来5月份的最低产量。对英国两大市场的出口大幅下降，对欧盟的出口下降22.5%，对美国的出口下降55.4%。此前，唐纳德·特朗普总统于3月决定对进口汽车和零部件征收25%的关税，扰乱了全球供应链，推高了成本。此举导致一些汽车制造商考虑将生产转移到美国。然而，本月早些时候在加拿大举行的七国集团峰会上重申的英国和美国之间最近的一项贸易协议提供了一丝缓解。根据该协议，每年最多有10万辆英国制造的汽车可以以10%的关税进入美国，低于适用于其他国家的25%的标准税率。

UK car production dropped 32.8% year-on-year in May 2025 to 49,810 units, hit by factory disruptions and new US tariffs. Excluding the pandemic-affected year of 2020, this marks the lowest May output since 1949. Exports to the UK’s two largest markets fell sharply, with shipments to the EU down 22.5% and to the US plummeting 55.4%. The decline follows President Donald Trump’s decision in March to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and parts, disrupting global supply chains and driving up costs. The move has led some automakers to consider relocating production to the US. However, a recent trade deal between the UK and the US, reaffirmed at the G7 summit in Canada earlier this month, offered a glimmer of relief. Under the agreement, up to 100,000 UK-made vehicles can enter the US each year at a reduced 10% tariff—lower than the standard 25% rate applied to other countries.

周四，富时100指数小幅上涨，受金属和油价攀升导致的大宗商品相关股票上涨的支撑。矿业股领涨，英美资源集团上涨7%，安托法加斯塔公司上涨5.6%，铜价触及三个月高点。嘉能可和力拓也分别上涨了5%和3.5%。受原油价格上涨的推动，石油巨头壳牌和英国石油公司分别上涨0.7%和1.6%。与此同时，在有关收购谈判的猜测之后，壳牌否认了任何立即收购英国石油公司的计划。金矿商Fresnillo和Endeavour也上涨。国防股BAE系统公司上涨超过3.5%，对北约决定到2035年将国防开支目标提高到GDP的5%持乐观态度。与此同时，联合利华和英美烟草等出口商均下跌超过2%，受英镑走强的影响，英镑走强达到2021年10月以来的最高水平。投资者继续关注以色列和伊朗之间脆弱的停火，这有助于缓解地缘政治紧张局势。

The FTSE 100 rose slightly on Thursday, supported by gains in commodity-linked stocks as metal and oil prices climbed. Miners led the rally, with Anglo American up 7% and Antofagasta up 5.6% as copper prices hit a three-month high. Glencore and Rio Tinto also gained 5% and 3.5%, respectively. Oil giants Shell and BP rose 0.7% and 1.6%, helped by rising crude prices. Meanwhile, Shell denied any immediate plans to acquire BP, following speculation of takeover talks. Gold miners Fresnillo and Endeavour also climbed. Defense stock BAE Systems gained over 3.5% amid optimism surrounding NATO’s decision to raise its defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035. Meanwhile, exporters like Unilever and British American Tobacco fell more than 2% each, hurt by the stronger pound, which reached its highest level since October 2021. Investors continued to monitor the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which helped ease geopolitical tensions.

来自英国央行贝利的更多信息：外汇走势并非基于利率。外汇市场的走势并非基于利率投机。投资者正在重新考虑立场。

More from BoE's Bailey: Moves in FX have not been moving based on interest rates.Moves in FX have not been moving based on interest rates speculation. Investors are reconsidering positions.