欧元/港币 (EURHKD) 加自选

香港股市在周二早盘下跌98点，跌幅0.4%，至25734点，结束了华尔街因交易员权衡美国总统特朗普的关税威胁而收低后的两天涨势。据报道，特朗普警告称，如果中国限制稀土磁铁出口，将对中国征收“200%的关税或其他什么”，并誓言对针对美国大型科技公司的国家进行报复，称此类举措“具有歧视性”。恒生指数从近四年来的最高点回落，因为在中国1月至7月的工业利润数据公布之前，人们越来越谨慎，贸易摩擦、需求疲软和恶劣天气影响了市场情绪。尽管如此，由于流动性驱动的收益和人工智能的乐观情绪，中国内地市场的强势限制了损失，本月迄今已上涨近10%。在上海，当局取消了对首次购房者的房产税，并放宽了郊区购房限制。所有板块均下跌，房地产和科技板块领跌，海底捞（-3.2%）、KE-Hlds领跌。（-3.5%）、创新科技（-3.1%）和中芯国际（-2.3%）是跌幅最大的公司。

Hong Kong stocks fell 98 points, or 0.4% to 25,734 in Tuesday morning’s session, snapping a two-day rally after Wall Street closed lower as traders weighed U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats. Trump reportedly warned of “200% tariffs or something” on China if it limits rare-earth magnet exports, and vowed retaliation against countries targeting U.S. Big Tech, calling such moves “discriminatory.” The Hang Seng pulled back from its highest in almost four years as caution grew ahead of China’s January–July industrial profit data, with sentiment weighed by trade frictions, weak demand, and adverse weather. Still, losses were capped by strength in mainland markets, up near 10% so far this month on liquidity-driven gains and AI optimism. In Shanghai, authorities scrapped property taxes for first-home buyers and eased suburban purchase limits. All sectors fell, led by property and tech, with Haidilao (-3.2%), KE Hlds. (-3.5%), Innovent (-3.1%), and SMIC (-2.3%) among top losers.

警惕：法国政府面临崩溃，贝鲁面临预算信任投票的风险（9月8日）。法国总理贝鲁呼吁在9月8日就全面削减预算进行信任投票，主要反对党已经站出来反对他，法国少数派政府面临崩溃。政治不确定性扰乱了市场，推动法国债券息差扩大，并使CAC 40指数下跌。

Heads up: French government faces collapse as Bayrou risks budget confidence vote (Sept 8).France's minority government faces collapse as PM Bayrou calls a September 8 confidence vote on sweeping budget cuts, with major opposition parties already lined up against him. Political uncertainty rattled markets, pushing French bond spreads wider and knocking the CAC 40 lower.

周一，法国债券市场显示出新的紧张迹象，10年期国债收益率升至3.51%，为3月中旬以来的最高点。这一增长是在总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁宣布9月8日举行议会信任投票，寻求对其财政改革议程的支持之后出现的。7月中旬公布的2026年预算的核心是一项有争议的削减公共假日数量的提案，旨在提高生产力和解决该国不断增长的债务问题。来自左翼和右翼的批评使贝鲁容易受到不信任投票的影响，就像他的前任米歇尔·巴尼耶在2024年面临的那样，当时他在三个月后被免职。2024年赤字占GDP的5.8%，远高于欧盟3%的上限，法国正面临对其公共财政的重新审查。与此同时，市场参与者仍然关注美联储和欧洲央行的不同政策信号，同时等待8月29日公布的国内通胀数据。

France’s bond market showed fresh signs of strain on Monday, with the 10-year yield rising to 3.51%, a peak not seen since mid-March. The rise came after Prime Minister François Bayrou announced a parliamentary confidence vote for September 8, seeking support for his fiscal reform agenda. At the center of the 2026 budget, unveiled in mid-July, is a controversial proposal to cut the number of public holidays, aimed at boosting productivity and tackling the country’s mounting debt. Criticism from both the left and right has left Bayrou vulnerable to a no-confidence vote, just as his predecessor Michel Barnier faced in 2024, when he was removed after three months. With a deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2024—well above the EU’s 3% ceiling—France is facing renewed scrutiny over its public finances. Meanwhile, market participants remained focused on divergent policy signals from the Federal Reserve and the ECB, while awaiting domestic inflation figures due on August 29.

随着投资者权衡欧洲央行政策、经济数据和贸易发展，欧元一直在1.166美元左右易手，距离7月1日1.18美元的四年高点不远。欧洲央行已经比美联储降息更多，现在表示暂停降息，政策制定者强调欧元区劳动力市场的实力。此外，德国企业士气在8月份创下15个月新高，与最近乐观的经济活动数据相呼应，并减轻了今年进一步削减的压力。相比之下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示美国将于9月降息，突显出政策分歧。与此同时，欧盟与美国协议的细节显示，大多数欧洲商品面临15%的关税，但汽车、药品和芯片可能不会受到美国更严厉的征税。

The euro has been changing hands around $1.166, not far from a four-year high of $1.18 on July 1, as investors weigh ECB policy, economic data, and trade developments. The ECB, which has already cut rates more than the Fed, now signaled a pause, with policymakers stressing Eurozone labor market strength. Also, German business morale hit a 15-month high in August, echoing recent upbeat activity data and reducing pressure for further cuts this year. In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September US rate cut, highlighting policy divergence. Meanwhile, details of the EU-US deal showed most European goods facing 15% tariffs, but autos, pharmaceuticals, and chips may be spared from tougher US levies.