欧元/港币 (EURHKD) 加自选

欧元周一攀升至1.175美元上方，结束了美国和欧盟周末达成贸易协议后连续两天的下跌。该协议包括对大多数欧洲商品征收15%的关税，远低于华盛顿最初威胁的30%，缓解了人们对更广泛贸易冲突的担忧。周日，特朗普总统和欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在苏格兰联合宣布，该协议被特朗普誉为“所有协议中最大的”，而冯德莱恩表示，该协议将提供“稳定性”和“可预测性”。然而，关键细节，如涵盖哪些行业和可能的豁免范围，仍不清楚。上周，欧洲央行保持利率稳定，政策制定者暂停评估地缘政治风险，欧元上涨1%。欧洲央行今年已经四次降息，将存款利率从2024年的4%峰值降至截至6月的2%。

The euro climbed above $1.175 on Monday, snapping a two-day losing streak after the US and EU reached a trade agreement over the weekend. The deal includes a 15% tariff on most European goods, significantly lower than the 30% originally threatened by Washington, easing fears of a broader trade conflict. Announced jointly by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland on Sunday, the agreement was hailed by Trump as “the biggest of all the deals,” while von der Leyen said it would provide “stability” and “predictability.” However, key details, such as which industries are covered and the scope of possible exemptions, remain unclear. Last week, the euro rose 1% after the ECB held interest rates steady as policymakers paused to assess geopolitical risks. The ECB has already delivered four rate cuts this year, lowering the deposit rate from a 4% peak in 2024 to 2% as of June.

欧洲股市周五收盘大多下跌，市场继续评估最新企业盈利，同时等待欧盟和美国贸易关系的最新消息。受较重的工业和医疗保健行业的影响，STOXX 50指数微涨至5360点，STOXX 600指数下跌0.3%至550点。施耐德电气和空中客车在下周财报公布前均下跌超过1%，给工业巨头带来了负面影响。此外，ASML和诺基亚各下跌约1.5%，诺基亚在本周发布悲观报告后继续下跌。另一方面，路威酩轩集团在公布业绩后飙升4%，大众汽车在其电话会议中尽管前景不佳，但仍飙升4%，提振了更广泛的奢侈品和汽车行业。预计欧盟和美国将于下周宣布其贸易的最新情况，而美国将于周五对欧盟商品征收30%的关税。

European stocks closed mostly lower on Friday as markets continued to assess the latest corporate earnings while awaiting updates in trade relations between the EU and the US. The STOXX 50 inched higher to 5,360 and the STOXX 600 fell 0.3% to 550, weighed by the heavier industrial and healthcare sectors. Schneider Electric and Airbus dropped over 1% each ahead of their earnings next week, setting he negative stage for industrial giants. Also, ASML and Nokia dropped around 1.5% each, with the latter continuing to drop after its pessimistic report this week. On the other hand, LVMH surged 4% after posting its results and Volkswagen surged 4% despite the negative outlook in its call, lifting the broader luxury and auto sectors. The EU and US are expected to announce updates on their trade next week ahead of the deadline for 30% US tariffs to be implemented on EU goods by Friday.

周五，富时MIB指数上涨0.4%，收于40760点，表现优于其他主要欧洲指数，这得益于埃尼和Moncler乐观的企业盈利。埃尼集团股价上涨1.8%，此前该公司公布了强于预期的业绩，净债务下降，该公司提高了其天然气和液化天然气部门的全年目标以及成本节约措施。Moncler在第二季度盈利强劲后上涨2.9%。与此同时，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德重申了央行的谨慎立场，淡化了9月份降息的可能性，尽管通胀率达到了2%的目标。随着8月1日关税最后期限的临近，投资者还期待着下周的美联储会议，并关注着与美国正在进行的贸易谈判。在数据方面，意大利消费者信心在7月份小幅上升，而商业信心在两个月的上涨后有所下滑。在其他上涨因素中，Interpump上涨5%，Nexi上涨3.3%，而Saipem（-3.3%）和普睿司曼（-1.4%）则出现亏损。

The FTSE MIB rose 0.4% to close at 40,760 on Friday, outperforming other major European indices, supported by upbeat corporate earnings from Eni and Moncler. Eni gained 1.8% after reporting stronger-than-expected results, net debt fell and the company improved its full-year target for its gas and LNG division and cost-saving measures. Moncler climbed 2.9% following robust Q2 earnings. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the central bank's cautious stance, downplaying the likelihood of a rate cut in September despite inflation hitting the 2% target. Investors also looked ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and watched ongoing trade negotiations with the US, as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. On the data front, Italian consumer confidence edged higher in July, while business sentiment slipped after two months of gains. Among other movers, Interpump jumped 5% and Nexi added 3.3%, while Saipem (-3.3%) and Prysmian (-1.4%) posted losses.

周五，巴黎CAC 40指数扭转早盘跌幅，收于7835点，上涨0.2%，受欧洲央行宽松预期减弱和欧盟-美国贸易不确定性持续影响，重量级奢侈品板块反弹提振。LVMH股价飙升3.9%，此前其第二季度业绩显示利润率高于预期，再加上中国需求复苏的“有形”迹象以及首席财务官塞西尔·卡瓦尼斯（Cécile Cabanis）对成本纪律的重新关注，而奢侈品同行开云（4.4%）和爱马仕（1.6%）的表现也优于预期。在其他地方，对美国-欧盟关税协议的希望提振了Stellantis（3%）等工业和出口导向型企业。在政策方面，投资者减少了对欧洲央行进一步降息的押注。此前，由于持续的贸易风险和通胀率恢复到2%的目标，欧洲央行一年来首次暂停降息，拉加德总统称欧元区处于“良好状态”。本周，CAC 40指数上涨0.4%。

Paris’s CAC 40 reversed early losses to close 0.2% higher at 7,835 on Friday, lifted by a rally in the heavyweight luxury sector amid fading expectations for ECB easing and ongoing EU–US trade uncertainties. LVMH surged 3.9% after its Q2 results delivered profit margins above forecasts, compounded by “tangible” signs of Chinese demand recovery and a renewed focus on cost discipline under CFO Cécile Cabanis, while luxury peers Kering (4.4%) and Hermès (1.6%) also outperformed. Elsewhere, hopes for a US–EU tariff accord lifted industrial and export-oriented names such as Stellantis (3%). On the policy front, investors have trimmed their bets on further ECB rate cuts after the central bank paused for the first time in a year amid persistent trade risks and inflation’s return to its 2% target, with President Lagarde describing the bloc as being in “a good place.” For the week, the CAC 40 rose 0.4%.