纽币/港币 (NZDHKD) 加自选

周四，恒生指数上涨129点，涨幅0.5%，收于25667点，延续了第五个交易日的强势，同时保持在2021年11月初以来的最高水平。随着全球股市继续保持上涨势头，金融和房地产股领涨，涨幅几乎广泛。人们越来越乐观地认为，在本周早些时候达成包括与日本在内的几项协议后，美国可能会寻求更多的贸易协议。在中国，股市在下周与美国在斯德哥尔摩举行的第三轮贸易谈判之前上涨，旨在延长关税休战期。然而，由于特朗普总统将于当天晚些时候访问美国央行，在即将召开的美联储政策会议之前日益紧张的局势抑制了看涨势头。与此同时，中国将在上周末公布上半年工业利润数据，此前该数据略有下降。涨幅较大的股票包括Akeso股份有限公司（6.9%）、中国宏桥（6.3%）、零点机器人（5.2%）、中信有限公司（5.6%）和Pop-Mart国际（4.1%）。

The Hang Seng rose 129 points or 0.5% to close at 25,667 on Thursday, extending strength for the fifth session while holding at its highest level since early November 2021. Gains were almost broad-based, led by financial and property stocks, as global equities continued their upward momentum. Optimism mounted that the U.S. may pursue additional trade deals after securing several pacts earlier this week, including with Japan. In China, stocks rose ahead of next week’s third round of trade talks with the U.S. in Stockholm, aimed at extending a tariff truce. However, bullish momentum was curbed by growing tensions ahead of the forthcoming Fed policy meeting, as President Trump was set to visit the U.S. central bank later in the day. Meanwhile, China will release its H1 industrial profit data over the weekend following a slight drop in the prior period. Notable gainers included Akeso Inc. (6.9%), China Hongqiao (6.3%), Horizon Robotics (5.2%), Citic Ltd. (5.6%), and Pop Mart Intl. (4.1%).

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四微涨0.1%，收于12805点，结束了为期两天的下跌，因为对美国与主要伙伴贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪提振了更广泛的市场情绪。据报道，欧盟和美国正在接近达成一项协议，对来自欧盟的大多数进口商品征收15%的关税，这与本周早些时候与日本达成的类似协议相呼应。这些事态发展重新燃起了进一步达成贸易协定的希望，并缓解了人们对美国关税更广泛影响的担忧。在国内，新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四表示，如果价格压力继续如预期般缓解，央行准备进一步降息，并警告美国关税可能会抑制经济增长和通货膨胀。在企业方面，指数权重股Ebos Group（2.5%）和a2 Milk（1.4%）领涨。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index edged 0.1% higher to close at 12,805 on Thursday, ending a two-day decline, as optimism over progress in US trade negotiations with major partners lifted the broader market mood. The EU and the US are reportedly moving closer to an agreement that would set a 15% tariff on most imports from the bloc— mirroring a similar deal struck with Japan earlier this week. These developments have revived hopes for further trade accords and eased concerns over the broader impact of US tariffs. At home, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Thursday that the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates further if price pressures continue to ease as anticipated, warning that US tariffs are likely to damp economic growth and inflation. On the corporate front, index heavyweight Ebos Group (2.5%) and a2 Milk (1.4%) led the gains.

新西兰央行行长表示，关税可能降低中期通胀风险，抑制支出。新西兰一位高级央行行长周四表示，虽然美国关税的全面影响仍不确定，但它们可能会缓解该国的中期通胀压力，尽管关税可能会抑制商业投资和家庭支出。

Tariffs may lower medium-term inflation risks, curb spending, says New Zealand central banker.A top New Zealand central banker said on Thursday that while the full impact of U.S. tariffs remains uncertain, they could ease medium-term inflation pressures in the country, although the tariffs might dampen business investment and household spending.

周四，新西兰元升至0.605美元左右，达到两周多来的最高水平，原因是美元走软，以及美国与主要伙伴之间的贸易谈判取得进展后全球风险情绪有所改善。据报道，欧盟和美国正在朝着一项协议迈进，该协议将对来自欧盟的大多数进口商品征收15%的关税，这一结构类似于周二与日本达成的协议。在国内方面，新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四表示，如果价格压力的前景继续如预期般缓解，央行准备进一步降息。他还警告称，美国的关税可能会拖累经济增长并抑制需求，并补充说，美国将继续密切关注即将公布的数据。目前，市场预计8月份降息25个基点的可能性为80%，尽管投资者越来越相信新西兰储备银行可能即将结束其宽松周期。

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.605 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in more than two weeks, amid a softer US dollar and improved global risk sentiment following progress in trade talks between the US and key partners. The EU and the US are reportedly moving towards an agreement that would set a 15% tariff on most imports from the bloc—a structure similar to a deal struck with Japan on Tuesday. On the domestic front, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Thursday that the central bank is ready to cut interest rates further if the outlook for price pressures continue to ease as expected. He also warned that US tariffs are likely to weigh on economic growth and dampen demand, adding that the country will continue to closely monitor incoming data. Currently, markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25bps cut in August, though investors increasingly believe the RBNZ may be approaching the end of its easing cycle.