纽币/港币 (NZDHKD) 加自选

香港的年通胀率从上月的2.2%降至2024年10月的1.4%。这标志着自5月以来的最低通胀率，因为食品（0.9%对9月的1%）、住房（1%对3.3%）和杂项服务（1.9%对2%）的价格有所放缓。与此同时，耐用品的通货紧缩加剧（-0.7%对-0.4%）。与此同时，电力、天然气和水（8.5%对6.5%）、酒精饮料和烟草（21.8%对21.4%）、杂项商品（1.6%对1.2%）和运输（1.6%对1%）的成本加快。此外，服装和鞋类的通缩有所缓解（-1.4%对-1.6%）。按月计算，10月份消费者价格从前一个月的0.1%微升至0.2%。

The annual inflation rate in Hong Kong slowed to 1.4% in October 2024 from 2.2% in the previous month. This marked the lowest inflation rate since May, as prices moderated for food (0.9% vs 1% in September), housing (1% vs 3.3%), and miscellaneous services (1.9% vs 2%). At the same time, deflation worsened for durable goods (-0.7% vs -0.4%). Meanwhile, costs accelerated for electricity, gas and water (8.5% vs 6.5%), alcoholic drinks and tobacco (21.8% vs 21.4%), miscellaneous goods (1.6% vs 1.2%), and transport (1.6% vs 1%). Moreover, deflation eased for clothing and footwear (-1.4% vs -1.6%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up to 0.2% in October from 0.1% in the preceding month.

周四，恒生指数下跌104点，收于19601点，跌幅0.5%，此前一个交易日略有上涨，受英伟达盈利预测低于一些投资者的高预期后美国期货小幅下跌的拖累。与此同时，高盛分析师指出，美国大选后宏观环境发生了明显变化，美元走强对亚洲股市构成了不利因素。尽管如此，由于希望北京明年可能采取更强有力的财政政策来应对特朗普关税对中国出口的影响，损失有所减轻。所有行业均下跌，科技和房地产板块跌幅最大。由于对未来利润增长的担忧，快手科技股价下跌1.8%，而阿里巴巴影业股价下跌8.4%，原因是2024年上半年利润下降。其他主要输家包括雅迪集团（-5.2%）、周大福珠宝（-4.2%）和KE控股（-2.8%）。交易员们现在等待香港将于今天晚些时候公布的通胀数据，此前9月份的数据达到了三个月来的最低水平2.2%。

The Hang Seng fell by 104 points or 0.5% to close at 19,601 on Thursday after a slight gain in the previous session, dragged by a modest drop in US futures following Nvidia's earnings forecast which fell short of some investors' high expectations. Meantime, Goldman Sachs analysts noted a clear shift in the macro environment post-US election, with a stronger dollar posing headwinds for Asian equities. Still, losses were mitigated by hopes that Beijing might adopt stronger fiscal policies next year to counter the impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese exports. All sectors declined, with tech and property among the top losers. Kuaishou Tech tumbled 1.8% due to concerns about future profit growth, while Alibaba Pictures fell 8.4% on lower profits in H1 of 2024. Other major losers included Yadea Group (-5.2%), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (-4.2%), and KE Holdings (-2.8%). Traders now await Hong Kong's inflation data, due later today, after the September figure reached a three-month low of 2.2%.

周四，新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数微涨0.2%，收于12765点。新西兰财政部周四表示，由于生产率长期放缓，可能会下调其经济和财政预测。这促使投资者越来越多地考虑到新西兰储备银行在下周的政策会议上实施更激进的75个基点下调至4.75%现金利率的可能性，其中50个基点的下调已经完全体现在价格中。在企业方面，Infratil的股价上涨了0.9%，此前该公司公布了其提供六年期无担保、无次级、固定利率基础设施债券的计划。此外，西太平洋银行和澳新银行分别上涨1.2%和2.9%。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index inched 0.2% higher at 12,765 on Thursday. New Zealand's Treasury said on Thursday it would likely revise down its economic and fiscal forecasts due to a prolonged slowdown in productivity. This prompted investors to increasingly factor in the possibility of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand implementing a more aggressive 75bps cut to its 4.75% cash rate at its policy meeting next week, with a 50bps reduction already fully priced in. On the corporate front, shares of Infratil rose 0.9% after the company revealed its plan to offer six-year unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed-rate infrastructure bonds. Additionally, banks Westpac and ANZ gained 1.2% and 2.9%, respectively.

周四，新西兰元保持近期下跌至0.587美元左右，因为投资者预计新西兰储备银行在下周的政策会议上会采取更温和的立场。目前，市场暗示降息75个基点至4.75%现金利率的可能性为26%，而降息50个基点的可能性已经完全消化。这一预期转变是在新西兰财政部对经济前景持悲观态度之后发生的，财政部警告称，预期的经济复苏可能会推迟。从外部来看，新西兰元面临着美元反弹的额外压力，因为人们猜测美联储可能会在12月推迟降息。

The New Zealand dollar held its recent decline to around $0.587 on Thursday as investors anticipated a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at its policy meeting next week. Currently, markets are implying a 26% chance of a 75bps rate cut to the 4.75% cash rate, while a 50bps reduction is already fully priced in. This shift in expectations followed a downbeat economic outlook from New Zealand Treasury, which cautioned that the anticipated economic recovery could be delayed. Externally, the Kiwi faced added pressure from a rebound in the US dollar amid speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates in December.