纽币/瑞郎 (NZDCHF) 加自选

周四，新西兰元跌至0.607美元左右，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，投资者密切关注全球贸易发展。唐纳德·特朗普总统此前曾表示，他不打算延长7月9日各国谈判贸易协议的最后期限，尽管与主要伙伴日本的谈判未能取得进展。周三，特朗普宣布与越南达成协议，允许美国商品免税进入该国，而越南对美国的出口将面临20%的关税，低于4月份宣布的46%。与此同时，投资者为今天晚些时候公布的美国非农就业报告做好了准备，以获取美联储下一步行动的更多线索。在国内方面，人们普遍预计新西兰储备银行将在下周的会议上暂停其宽松周期，尽管由于对美国关税影响的担忧，投资者仍预计今年晚些时候将再降息一两个25个基点。

The New Zealand dollar dropped to around $0.607 on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, with investors closely monitoring global trade developments. President Donald Trump had previously said he was not planning to extend the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals, even as talks with key partner Japan failed to make headway. On Wednesday, Trump announced a deal with Vietnam that would allow US goods to enter the country duty-free, while Vietnamese exports to the US would face a 20% tariff—lower than the 46% announced in April. Meanwhile, investors geared up for the US non-farm payrolls report, due later today, for more clues on the Federal Reserve's next steps. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to pause its easing cycle at next week's meeting, although investors still expect one or two additional 25bps cut later this year amid concerns over the impact of US tariffs.

新西兰澳新银行商品价格指数-2.3%m/m（之前为1.9%）。澳新银行表示，6月份全球航运价格普遍较高。出口商预计，由于全球需求减少，未来几个月成本将有所下降。

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index -2.3% m/m (prior 1.9%).ANZ says that Global shipping prices were generally higher in June. Exporters expect costs to ease in coming months due to reduced global demand.

周四早盘，新西兰元50指数下跌60点，跌幅0.5%，至12724点，结束了五个交易日的连胜，并从六周多来的最高水平回落。尽管美国与越南达成贸易协议，包括对越南进口商品征收20%的关税，华尔街标准普尔500指数仍创下历史新高，但股市仍出现回落。在中国6月服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）公布之前，交易员采取了谨慎的立场，该指数将于当天晚些时候公布，由于需求疲软和美国关税升级，5月的数据徘徊在七个月低点附近。医疗保健、非能源矿产和能源矿产的损失最为显著。尽管如此，新西兰6月商业情绪在5月触及10个月低点后反弹，限制了下行压力。市场参与者现在正在等待下周的新西兰储备银行会议，预计央行在5月份降息25个基点至3.25%后将保持利率不变。主要落后者包括斐雪派克医疗保健公司（-2.1%）、A2牛奶公司（-1.4%）、莱曼医疗保健公司和Scales Corp.（-1.2%）。

The NZX 50 dropped 60 points or 0.5% to 12,724 on Thursday morning trade, snapping a five-session winning streak and retreating from its highest level in over six weeks. The pullback came despite a record close on Wall Street's S&P 500 after the U.S. struck a trade deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports. Traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of China's June Services PMI, due later in the day, with the May figure lingering near a seven-month low amid subdued demand and escalating U.S. tariffs. Losses were most notable in healthcare, non-energy minerals, and energy minerals. Still, downside pressure was capped by a rebound in New Zealand's business mood in June after May's 10-month low. Market participants now await next week's RBNZ meeting, where the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold after a 25bps cut to 3.25% in May. Major laggards included Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (-2.1%), A2 Milk (-1.4%), Ryman Healthcare (-1.3%), and Scales Corp. (-1.2%).

瑞士法郎继续保持强劲的上涨趋势，达到0.79兑1美元，为2011年7月以来的新高，因为美元仍受到降息预期和贸易关税重新出现的不确定性的压力，从而提振了避险需求。在7月9日的最后期限之前，仅与英国达成了一项初步协议，并与中国达成了降级协议，而与其他主要贸易伙伴的谈判仍停滞不前。对美联储的政治干预担忧，加上对特朗普大规模税收和支出提案的担忧，进一步削弱了美元。与此同时，在特朗普总统斡旋伊朗和以色列达成协议后，地缘政治风险有所缓解。在国内方面，瑞士国家银行（SNB）最近的评论表明，负利率和货币干预仍然是一种可能性。瑞士央行在6月份进一步将利率降至0%，以应对通胀压力的缓解，并表示如果下行风险持续存在，它可能会进入负值区域。

The Swiss franc continued its strong upward trend, reaching 0.79 per USD, a fresh high since July 2011, as the dollar remained pressured by expectations of rate cuts and renewed uncertainty over trade tariffs, boosting safe-haven demand. Ahead of the July 9 deadline, only a tentative agreement with the UK and a de-escalation with China have been secured, while talks with other key trading partners remain stalled. Political interference concerns at the Fed, combined with apprehension over Trump’s massive tax-and-spending proposal, have further weakened the greenback. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks eased after President Trump brokered a deal between Iran and Israel. On the domestic front, recent commentary from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suggested that both negative rates and currency interventions remain a possibility. The SNB cut interest rates further to 0% in June to counter easing inflationary pressures and indicated it may move into negative territory if downside risks persist.