纽币/加元 (NZDCAD) 加自选

周三早盘，新西兰元50指数下跌80点，跌幅0.6%，至12331点，连续第二次下跌。周二，由于特朗普总统对加拿大征收关税的不确定性以及美国2月份CPI数据公布前的谨慎态度，投资者情绪受到压力，华尔街领跌。在国内，新西兰的食品通胀数据将在未来几天公布，此前1月份的食品通胀率达到2.3%的12个月高点。与此同时，2月份电子卡交易量增长了0.3%，从前一个月的1.6%的下降中反弹，但每年下降4.2%。损失受到特朗普总统和中国领导人Xi可能在6月举行会晤的迹象的限制，这被视为两国之间持续贸易紧张局势下的善意姿态。大多数行业交易走低，能源矿产、非能源矿产和医疗保健行业领跌。早期落后者包括Colonial Motor Co.（-2.6%）、Fisher&Paykel Healthcare（-1.8%）和PGG Wrightson有限公司（-1.5%）。

The NZX 50 fell 80 points or 0.6% to 12,331 during Wednesday’s morning session, marking its second consecutive decline. The downturn followed a weak lead from Wall Street on Tuesday, as uncertainty over President Trump's tariffs on Canada and caution ahead of US CPI data for February weighed on investors' sentiment. Domestically, New Zealand's food inflation data will be due in the coming days, after January saw a 12-month high of 2.3%. Meanwhile, electronic card transactions rose 0.3% mom in February, rebounding from a 1.6% decline in the prior month, but they slipped 4.2% annually. Losses were limited by signs of a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in June, seen as a goodwill gesture amid ongoing trade tensions between the two nations. Most sectors traded lower, led by energy minerals, non-energy minerals, and healthcare. Among early laggards were Colonial Motor Co. (-2.6%), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (-1.8%), and PGG Wrightson Ltd. (-1.5%).

新西兰2月零售销售数据环比增长0.3%，同比下降4.2%。卡消费数据涵盖了新西兰约68%的核心零售额，是衡量月度零售活动的主要指标。新西兰元/美元变化不大。

New Zealand February retail sales data +0.3% m/m and -4.2% y/y.Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ and is the main measure of monthly retail activity. NZD/USD is little changed.

经季节性调整后，2025年2月新西兰的电子卡交易量增长0.3%，达到65.28亿新西兰元。消费品上涨0.6%，服装上涨1%。燃料保持不变，没有明显变化。机动车辆（不包括燃料）略有下降0.3%，耐用品也下降了0.1%。酒店业下降了0.1%。与去年同期相比，电子卡交易量下降了4.2%，前一个月下降了0.5%，标志着消费者支出趋势连续第11个月下降。

Electronic card transactions in New Zealand rose by 0.3% to NZD 6,528 million on a seasonally adjusted basis in February 2025. Consumables saw a 0.6% increase, while apparel gained 1%. Fuel remained unchanged, showing no significant movement. Motor vehicles (excluding fuel) experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, and durables also dropped by 0.1%. Hospitality recorded a 0.1% decrease. On a year-over-year basis, electronic card transactions fell by 4.2%, following a 0.5% drop the previous month, marking the eleventh consecutive month of declining consumer spending trends.

加元在跌破1.45美元后反弹至1.44美元左右，因宽松的贸易措施提供了缓解。安大略省暂停对美国出口电力征收25%的附加费，特朗普总统表示他正在重新考虑对加拿大钢铁和铝征收双倍关税的提议，这减轻了加拿大出口商的直接成本压力。这些发展有助于通过降低进一步报复性关税和贸易中断的风险来支持加元。然而，货币仍受到疲软的就业报告的压力——仅增加了约1000个职位，而预期为20000个——以及加拿大央行进一步降息的温和前景，再加上新当选总理马克·卡尼领导下的未来贸易谈判仍存在不确定性，卡尼对维持关税直至“美国人表示尊重”的强硬立场使长期政策方向受到质疑。

The Canadian dollar rebounded to around 1.44 USD after having fallen past 1.45 USD, as easing trade measures provided relief. Ontario’s suspension of a planned 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. and President Trump’s indication that he is reconsidering his proposal to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum have reduced immediate cost pressures on Canadian exporters. These developments have helped support the loonie by lowering the risk of further retaliatory tariffs and trade disruptions. However, the currency remains pressured by a weak jobs report—adding only about 1,000 positions against an expectation of 20,000—and a dovish outlook for further Bank of Canada rate cuts, compounded by lingering uncertainty over future trade negotiations under newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose hardline stance on maintaining tariffs until “Americans show us respect” leaves long-term policy direction in doubt.