纽币/加元 (NZDCAD) 加自选

2025年7月，加拿大Ivey采购经理人指数从6月的53.3升至55.8，高于市场预期的55.2，这表明经济连续第二个月扩张，随着就业指数（51.2对49.5）和供应商交付（50.2对44.7）转向增长，经济增速加快，而价格指数有所回落（68.5对70.2）。另一方面，库存指数下降至收缩（48.7比50.6）。

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index in Canada rose to 55.8 in July 2025, up from 53.3 in June and above market expectations of 55.2, signaling economic expansion for the second consecutive month and at an accelerated pace as the employment index (51.2 vs. 49.5), and supplier deliveries (50.2 vs. 44.7) swinging to growth, while the price index eased (68.5 vs. 70.2). On the other hand, the inventories index fell to contraction (48.7 vs. 50.6).

周四，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数徘徊在27920点的水平线之上，投资者权衡了美国对加拿大商品征收35%关税的可能性，因为企业盈利喜忧参半和资源价格反弹在一定程度上超过了贸易战的担忧。能源生产商Cenovus上涨约2%，引领该行业走高，因为油价停止了最近的暴跌。同样，在金价走强的背景下，巴里克矿业以近2%的涨幅领涨矿业股。另一方面，金融巨头宏利在第二季度财报令人失望后下跌超过2%。同样，Nutrien在第二季度表现不佳后下跌了3%以上。在其他地方，Shopify在昨日飙升21.5%后出现获利回吐，跌幅约为1%。在经济方面，加拿大经济活动连续第二个月增长，增速为一年来最快，7月份Ivey PMI为55.8，超出预期的55.2。

The S&P/TSX Composite hovered above the flatline at the 27,920 mark on Thursday, as investors weighed the onset of a 35% US tariff on Canadian goods as mixed corporate earnings and a rebound in resource prices somewhat outweighed trade-war concerns. Energy producer Cenovus added around 2% to lead the sector higher as oil prices halted their recent plunge. Similarly, Barrick Mining led the miners higher with nearly 2% on the back of stronger bullion prices. On the other hand, financial heavyweight Manulife dropped over 2% after a disappointing second quarter earnings report. Similarly, Nutrien lost over 3% after a lackluster performance in Q2. Elsewhere, Shopify dropped around 1% amid profit taking after yesterday’s 21.5% surge. Economically, Canada saw a second consecutive month of growing economic activity and at the fastest pace in a year as the Ivey PMI came in at 55.8 in July, beating expectations of 55.2.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四收于12887点，几乎持平，因投资者对美国新加征关税的担忧而持观望态度。全面的互惠关税现已生效，包括对新西兰出口产品征收15%的更高关税。与此同时，来自新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国的贸易数据显示，由于北京和华盛顿之间脆弱的关税休战，7月份的出口超过了预期。在国内，本周公布的劳动力市场数据表明，经济持续疲软，这增强了人们对新西兰储备银行可能在本月晚些时候即将召开的会议上降息的预期。在企业方面，显著上涨的包括Spark NZ（+1.8%）和Chorus（+1.2%），而Contact Energy（-0.8%）和Summerset（-1.3%）是主要下跌股之一。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index ended Thursday’s session nearly flat at 12,887, as investors stayed on the sidelines amid concerns over newly imposed US tariffs. The sweeping reciprocal tariffs have now taken effect, including a higher 15% duty on New Zealand exports. Meanwhile, trade data from China — New Zealand's largest trading partner — showed exports beat forecasts in July amid a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. Domestically, labor market data released this week pointed to continued softness, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting later this month. On the corporate front, notable gainers included Spark NZ (+1.8%) and Chorus (+1.2%), while Contact Energy (-0.8%) and Summerset (-1.3%) were among the key decliners.

新西兰储备银行的调查显示，将再次降息，随后将出现长期停滞。新西兰储备银行8月份的预期调查显示，央行可能只会在2025年再次降息，但此后的前景仍然谨慎。预计到2025年9月，OCR将从3.25%下降到3.02%，这与本月会议上可能出现的25个基点的波动一致。

RBNZ survey signals one more cut, then long pause ahead.RBNZ's August Survey of Expectations suggests the central bank will likely cut rates only once more in 2025, but the outlook beyond that remains cautious. The OCR is forecast to decline from 3.25% to 3.02% by September 2025 — consistent with a single 25bps move, likely in this month's meeting.