澳元/加元 (AUDCAD) 加自选

美元/日元、欧元/日元、澳元/日元展望：美元、日元疲软，进入联邦公开市场委员会和日本央行。周二，美元和日元双双走弱，在央行做出关键决定之前，日元交叉盘成为焦点。交易员们正在为美联储降息25个基点做准备，同时预示着未来宽松的道路，市场定价倾向于在年底前再降息50个基点。

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY Outlook: Dollar, Yen Weakness Into FOMC, BOJ.The US dollar and Japanese yen both weakened on Tuesday, leaving JPY crosses in focus ahead of pivotal central bank decisions. Traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25bp cut while signalling the path for future easing, with market pricing leaning towards another 50bp of cuts by year-end.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周二下跌0.4%，收于29400点，因投资者在加拿大央行明天的政策决定之前消化了低于预期的通胀数据。加拿大8月份的年度CPI从7月份的1.7%上升至1.9%，低于2.0%的共识，连续第五个月低于中国银行2%的中点，而该行首选的潜在通胀指标——削减后的平均核心CPI从7月的3.1%降至8月的3.0%，与预测一致。市场仍预计中国央行将开始放松政策，但已减少了对2025年剩余时间降息幅度的押注。权重矿商是最大的落后者之一，Wheaton Precious Metals领跌2.4%，对利率敏感的科技股和金融股也表现强劲。与此同时，第三个交易日油价上涨在一定程度上抵消了能源生产商的影响。

The S&P/TSX Composite slipped 0.4% to close at 29,400 on Tuesday as investors digested softer-than-expected inflation data ahead of the Bank of Canada’s policy decision tomorrow. Canada’s annual CPI rose to 1.9% in August from 1.7% in July—below the 2.0% consensus and marking the fifth consecutive month beneath the BoC’s 2% midpoint—while the trimmed-mean core CPI, the Bank’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, eased to 3.0% in August from 3.1% in July, in line with forecasts. Markets still expect the BoC to begin easing but have trimmed bets on the extent of rate cuts through the remainder of 2025. Heavyweight miners were among the biggest laggards, led by Wheaton Precious Metals down 2.4%, and rate-sensitive tech and financials also traded firmly in the red. Meanwhile, rising oil prices for a third session provided some offset from energy producers.

加拿大10年期政府债券的收益率在9月份跌至3.3%以下，为四个月来的最低水平，因为市场越来越多地考虑到北美主要央行今年的多次降息。尽管加拿大央行仍对持续的价格压力保持警惕，但整体通胀疲软和增长放缓的迹象改变了人们对加拿大央行将尽早开始宽松政策的预期。加拿大8月CPI同比上涨1.9%，使整体通胀率低于中国银行2%的中点，而月度CPI印刷和需求降温降低了长期收益率中的通胀风险溢价。核心指标保持坚挺，但趋于平稳，这降低了投资者对久期风险的期限溢价需求。与此同时，随着市场在美联储政策会议之前重新评估其路径，美国国债收益率已接近五个月低点，而全球长期收益率的下降有助于拉低加拿大利率。

The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond fell below 3.3% in September, its lowest in four months, as markets increasingly priced multiple rate cuts this year from major North American central banks. Softer headline inflation and signs of moderating growth have shifted expectations that the Bank of Canada will begin easing sooner rather than later, even as it remains vigilant against persistent price pressures. Canada’s August CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year, keeping headline inflation below the BoC’s 2% midpoint, while monthly CPI prints and cooling demand have pared the inflation risk premium embedded in long-dated yields. Core measures remain firmer but are flattening, which lowers the term premium investors demand for duration risk. At the same time, US Treasury yields have traded near five-month lows as markets reassess the Federal Reserve’s path ahead of its policy meeting, and that global decline in long yields has helped pull Canadian rates down.

9月，加元兑美元汇率突破1.38，攀升至月度高点，此前国内数据强化了人们对加拿大央行将谨慎降息的预期。8月份整体CPI同比上涨1.9%，低于普遍预期的2.0%，但核心指标，特别是修剪后的平均值和中位数，仍接近3.0%，这表明一旦排除波动性项目，潜在通胀将持续存在。这些数据，再加上经济持续弹性的迹象，意味着中国央行可以更长时间地保持政策限制，并降低了快速宽松周期的可能性；市场目前预计，下一次会议只会适度降息25个基点，而不是采取更激进的方式。与此同时，在美联储即将加息25个基点和今年进一步宽松的定价推动下，美元走软，减轻了加元的外部压力。

The Canadian dollar strengthened past 1.38 per US dollar in September, climbing to monthly highs after domestic data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will be cautious about cutting rates. Headline CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year in August—below the 2.0% consensus—but core gauges, notably the trimmed-mean and median, remain close to 3.0%, signaling persistent underlying inflation once volatile items are excluded. Those readings, together with signs of continued economic resilience, imply the BoC can keep policy restrictive for longer and have trimmed the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle; markets now price only a modest 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting rather than a more aggressive path. At the same time, a softer US dollar, driven by Federal Reserve pricing for an imminent 25-basis-point move and further easing this year, has reduced external pressure on the Canadian dollar.