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交易日美联储押注下滑，鲍威尔上台。交易日

TRADING DAY Fed bets slip, Powell takes the stage.TRADING DAY

标准普尔500指数周四收盘下跌0.4%，标志着连续第五次下跌，因为投资者期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲。道琼斯指数下跌153点，纳斯达克100指数下跌0.5%，主要科技股持续承压。沃尔玛受情绪拖累，自2022年以来首次低于季度盈利预期，下跌4.5%，尽管上调了全年销售额和利润前景。面对更高的关税和不均衡的支出，其他零售商的疲软加剧了人们对消费者弹性的担忧。在数据方面，首次申请失业救济人数的增长超出预期，而标准普尔全球的综合采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，商业活动增速为三年来最快，突显出经济背景喜忧参半。投资者现在正在等待鲍威尔周五的讲话，以了解美联储下一步行动的信号，期货定价为9月份降息的可能性为73%。

The S&P 500 closed 0.4% lower on Thursday, marking its fifth consecutive decline as investors looked ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The Dow Jones slipped 153 points, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.5% amid continued pressure on major tech stocks. Walmart dragged on sentiment, tumbling 4.5% after missing quarterly earnings expectations for the first time since 2022, despite lifting its full-year sales and profit outlook. Weakness across other retailers added to concerns about consumer resilience in the face of higher tariffs and uneven spending. On the data front, jobless claims rose more than expected, while S&P Global’s composite PMI pointed to the fastest pace of business activity in three years, highlighting a mixed economic backdrop. Investors are now awaiting Powell’s remarks on Friday for signals on the Fed’s next move, with futures pricing in a 73% chance of a September rate cut.

周四股市普遍下跌，标准普尔500指数连续第五个交易日下跌，投资者将注意力转向美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔发表的演讲。道琼斯指数下跌约125点，而纳斯达克指数因大型科技股持续疲软而下跌0.4%。沃尔玛股价下跌超过4%，尽管上调了全年销售额和利润前景，但自2022年以来首次低于预期，这给市场带来了压力。令人失望的结果，加上其他主要零售商的谨慎信号，突显了消费者在关税上调和支出趋势喜忧参半的情况下的不确定性。与此同时，首次申请失业救济人数高于预期，而标准普尔全球综合采购经理人指数显示，商业活动加速至三年来最快水平，反映出经济形势喜忧参半。交易员们现在正在等待鲍威尔周五的讲话，以明确9月份是否可能降息，期货市场定价的可能性为73%。

Stocks fell broadly on Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding for a fifth straight session as investors turned their focus to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole. The Dow Jones dropped about 125 points, while the Nasdaq lost 0.4% amid ongoing weakness in big tech. Walmart weighed on markets after its shares slipped over 4% despite raising its full-year sales and profit outlook, as its quarterly earnings missed expectations for the first time since 2022. The disappointing results, combined with cautious signals from other major retailers, underscored consumer uncertainty amid higher tariffs and mixed spending trends. Meanwhile, jobless claims came in hotter than expected, while S&P Global’s composite PMI showed business activity accelerating to its strongest pace in three years, reflecting a mixed economic picture. Traders are now awaiting Powell’s remarks on Friday for clarity on whether a rate cut is likely in September, with futures markets pricing in a 73% chance.

美元预测：随着鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲引起关注，DXY上涨。美元指数公司高于50天SMA，看涨者瞄准99.320。交易员们等待鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲，以评估美联储的利率前景。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Gains as Powell Speech at Jackson Hole Draws Focus.Dollar Index firms above 50-day SMA, with bulls targeting 99.320. Traders await Powell's Jackson Hole speech to gauge Fed rate outlook.