加元/瑞郎 (CADCHF) 加自选

FranC进入湍流区，球在SNB一侧。美元兑瑞士法郎的交易价格低于0.8000，在7月份从这些水平反弹后，又回到了14年来的低点。早些时候，在2010年和2014年，该货币对仅以自由落体模式下跌，迫使央行进行干预并扭转趋势。

FranC Entered Turbulence Zone, Ball on the Side of SNB.USDCHF is trading below 0.8000, returning to the area of 14-year lows after rebounding from these levels in July. Earlier, in 2010 and 2014, the pair traded lower only in free-fall mode, forcing the central bank to intervene and reverse the trend.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周一徘徊在29280点附近的水平线以下，受大宗商品生产商的拖累，投资者正在等待北美主要央行的政策决定。能源和矿业股回吐了上周的一些涨幅，尽管石油和黄金价格上涨，而对利率敏感的科技股提供了最明显的支撑。由于劳动力市场疲软和经济活动疲软的迹象，市场预计加拿大央行周三将降息25个基点，预计下季度将再次降息。美联储在即将召开的会议上降息25个基点的可能性很小，交易员普遍预计到年底将进一步放松。

The S&P/TSX Composite hovered below the flatline around the 29,280 level on Monday, weighed down by commodity producers as investors awaited policy decisions from North America’s major central banks. Energy and mining names gave back some of last week’s gains even as oil and gold held higher, while the rate-sensitive technology sector provided the clearest support. Markets are pricing a 25 basis point cut from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday amid signs of a weakening labour market and softer economic activity, with another reduction expected next quarter. The Federal Reserve is also fully priced for a 25 basis point cut at its upcoming meeting, with a small chance of a larger move, and traders broadly expect additional easing through year end.

2025年7月，加拿大批发销售额环比增长1.2%，达到860亿加元，这是自1月以来的最快增长，增速高于6月上调的1.0%，但略低于市场预期的1.3%。七个子行业中有四个实现了增长，约占批发贸易总额的四分之三。增幅最大的是机动车和机动车零部件及配件子行业（增长5.1%，达到154亿加元），机动车销售额增长5.9%，建筑材料和用品子行业（上升2.7%，达到121亿加元）。该行业的所有行业集团都做出了贡献，其中木材、木制品、五金和其他建筑用品增长2.7%。这些收益被杂项子部门的下降（-1.5%至107亿加元）部分抵消。从地区来看，七个省份的批发销售额增长，其中安大略省（增长1.5%，达到447亿加元）和阿尔伯塔省（增长2.6%，达到95亿加元）领先。

Canada’s wholesale sales climbed 1.2% month-on-month to C$86.0 billion in July 2025, the fastest gain since January, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.0% increase in June but slightly below market expectations of 1.3%. Four of the seven subsectors posted gains, accounting for roughly three-quarters of total wholesale trade. The largest increases came from the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector (+5.1% to C$15.4 billion), driven by a 5.9% increase in motor vehicle sales, and the building materials and supplies subsector (+2.7% to C$12.1 billion), with all industry groups in the sector contributing, led by a 2.7% increase in lumber, millwork, hardware and other building supplies. These gains were partially offset by a decline in the miscellaneous subsector (-1.5% to C$10.7 billion). Regionally, wholesale sales rose in seven provinces, led by Ontario (+1.5% to C$44.7 billion) and Alberta (+2.6% to C$9.5 billion).

加拿大制造业销售额在6月份增长0.3%后，在2025年7月增长2.5%，达到703亿加元，超过了早些时候预测的1.8%的增长。这是自2023年1月以来最强劲的增长，主要得益于运输设备（+8.6%）的销售增长，即机动车（+11.4%）和机动车零部件（+7.2%），以及航空航天产品和零部件产量的增加（+6.5%）。石油和煤炭产品（+6.2%）和初级金属（+3.5%）也出现了其他显著增长。与此同时，化学品的销售额下降幅度最大，7月份下降了2.5%。7月份，安大略省（+2.8%）和魁北克省（+3.4%）等七个省份的销售额增长。曼尼托巴省（-9.1%）的跌幅最大。与去年同期相比，制造业总销售额下降了1.7%。

Canada’s manufacturing sales rose by 2.5% to CAD 70.3 billion in July 2025, following a 0.3% increase in June, beating an earlier estimate of a 1.8% advance. This marked the strongest increase since January 2023, driven by higher sales of transportation equipment (+8.6%), namely motor vehicles (+11.4%) and motor vehicle parts (+7.2%) as well as increased production of aerospace products and parts (+6.5%). Other significant increases were seen for petroleum and coal products (+6.2%) and primary metals (+3.5%). Meanwhile, sales of chemicals saw the largest decline, falling 2.5% in July. Sales rose in seven provinces in July, led by Ontario (+2.8%) and Quebec (+3.4%). Manitoba (-9.1%) posted the largest decline. On a year-over-year basis, total manufacturing sales were down 1.7%.