加元/瑞郎 (CADCHF) 加自选

周四，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.6%，至25480点以下，投资者评估了特朗普关税威胁和一批好坏参半的企业盈利的影响。对木材和林产品征收新关税的宣布直接威胁到加拿大的一个主要出口部门，引发了人们对贸易中断和国内生产商盈利能力下降的担忧。这种不确定性对股市造成了压力，尤其是在资源密集型行业。与此同时，企业业绩喜忧参半。Cenovus Energy在公布第四季度利润下降后暴跌超过5%，突显出能源行业的逆风，而Nutrien的盈利下滑表明农业面临挑战，尽管其股价仍上涨超过2%。此外，由于市场对贸易政策和全球需求的广泛担忧，电子商务巨头是最落后的，下滑超过4%，这使得风险偏好受到抑制。相反，宏利因强劲的季度增长而飙升超过7%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.6% to below the 25,480 mark on Thursday, as investors assessed the impact of Trump's tariff threats and a mixed batch of corporate earnings. The announcement of new duties on lumber and forest products directly threatens one of Canada’s key export sectors, raising concerns about trade disruptions and weaker profitability for domestic producers. This uncertainty weighed on equities, particularly in resource-heavy industries. Meanwhile, corporate results offered a mixed picture. Cenovus Energy tumbled over 5% after reporting lower Q4 profits, highlighting headwinds in the energy sector, while Nutrien’s earnings miss pointed to challenges in agriculture, though its shares still rose more than 2%. Additionally, e-commerce mega cap was among the top laggards, sliding over 4% amid broader market concerns over trade policy and global demand, which kept risk appetite subdued. Conversely, Manulife surged over 7% on strong quarterly growth.

加元兑美元汇率徘徊在1.42左右，从1月31日的22年低点1.455保持反弹，因为国内数据提振了对收紧货币政策的预期，大宗商品价格上涨吸引了外汇流入。1月份工业生产者价格飙升1.6%，远高于预期，原材料价格指数环比上涨3.7%，这表明强劲的通胀压力降低了加拿大央行进一步放松的预期。这些数字，再加上支撑加拿大出口导向型经济的大宗商品价格反弹，改善了加元的需求前景。与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三宣布，他将在下个月内公布新的关税，将木材和林产品纳入之前宣布的进口汽车、半导体和药品关税计划。

The Canadian dollar hovered around 1.42 per USD, maintaining its rebound from a 22-year low of 1.455 on January 31, as domestic data bolstered expectations for a tighter monetary policy and rising commodity prices attracted foreign currency inflows. Industrial producer prices surged by 1.6% in January, well above forecasts, and the Raw Materials Price Index jumped 3.7% month-over-month, signaling strong inflationary pressures that reduce expectations for further Bank of Canada easing. These figures, combined with a rebound in commodity prices supporting Canada’s export-driven economy, have improved the demand outlook for the loonie. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he would unveil new tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans for tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.

2025年1月，加拿大原材料价格指数环比上涨3.7%，高于12月的1.3%，超过了2.4%的预期涨幅。金属矿石、精矿和废料价格上涨1.9%，标志着该类别连续第五个月上涨，领涨。其他金属矿石和精矿的价格上涨了2.6%，其中最大的贡献来自黄金、白银和铂族金属矿石和选矿。原油能源产品环比上涨7.2%，常规原油上涨8.1%，原因是对俄罗斯石油的新制裁和美国最近的原油库存减少推动了原油价格上涨。农作物产品上涨3.2%。与去年同期相比，RMPI飙升11.8%，反映了2024年1月6.5%下降的基础效应。金属矿石、精矿和废料是最大的贡献者（+23.3%），其中金、银和铂族金属矿石和精矿增长了40.5%。

The Raw Materials Price Index in Canada rose 3.7% month-over-month in January 2025, accelerating from a 1.3% increase in December and exceeding expectations for a 2.4% increase. The gain was led by a 1.9% rise in metal ores, concentrates, and scrap prices, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase for this category. Prices for other metal ores and concentrates rose 2.6%, with the largest contribution coming from gold, silver, and platinum group metal ores and concentrates. Crude energy products increased 7.2% month-over-month, with conventional crude oil up 8.1% as higher crude prices were driven by new sanctions on Russian oil and recent crude inventory draws in the United States. Crop products rose 3.2%. Year-on-year, the RMPI surged 11.8%, reflecting a base effect from a 6.5% decline in January 2024. Metal ores, concentrates, and scrap were the largest contributors (+23.3%), led by a 40.5% rise in gold, silver, and platinum group metal ores and concentrates.

加拿大工业生产者价格指数在11月修正后上涨0.4%，高于市场预测的0.8%的涨幅后，于2025年1月环比上涨1.6%。这标志着连续第四个月上涨，也是自2024年4月以来的最大涨幅，这是由能源和石油产品价格上涨（+7%）推动的，其中精炼石油能源产品（+7.0%），特别是柴油（+9.4%）和成品车用汽油（+5.4%）。额外的上涨压力来自水果、蔬菜、饲料和其他食品的价格（+2.1%）；化学品和化工产品（+2.3%）和主要有色金属产品（+1.2%）。不包括能源和石油产品，1月份IPPI环比上涨0.9%。受基期效应的影响，生产者价格指数同比上涨5.8%，达到过去12个月的最高水平。

Industrial producer prices in Canada rose by 1.6% over a month in January 2025, following a revised 0.4% increase in November and above market forecasts of a 0.8% advance. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the largest gain since April 2024, driven by higher prices for energy and petroleum products (+7%), of which refined petroleum energy products (+7.0%), especially diesel fuel (+9.4%) and finished motor gasoline (+5.4%). Additional upward pressure came from prices of fruit, vegetables, feed and other food products (+2.1%); chemicals and chemical products (+2.3%) and primary non-ferrous metal products (+1.2%). Excluding energy and petroleum products, the IPPI rose 0.9% on a monthly basis in January. On a yearly basis, producer prices jumped by 5.8%, attaining their highest level in the past 12 months, influenced by a base period effect.