新加坡元/日元 (SGDJPY) 加自选

日经225指数上涨1.8%，至37800点左右，而更广泛的东证指数周五上涨1.5%，至2655点，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，并受到美国大幅降息和美国经济“软着陆”预期推动的华尔街隔夜强劲领先的启示。投资者也为日本央行在日后的政策决定做好了准备，预计日本央行将保持利率不变，但在未来的会议上表示将进一步加息。最新数据显示，日本核心通胀率从7月的2.7%加速至8月的2.8%，支持了日本央行政策的鹰派前景。科技股领涨，包括Lasertec（2.2%）、Disco Corp（4.4%）、东京电子（5.3%）、Advantest（3.3%）和软银集团（1.5%）。其他指数权重股也大幅上涨，如迅销（3.8%）、三菱UFJ（2.7%）和丰田汽车（1.4%）。基准指数本周将上涨3%以上。

The Nikkei 225 Index rallied 1.8% to around 37,800 while the broader Topix Index jumped 1.5% to 2,655 on Friday, extending gains from the previous session and taking cues from a strong lead on Wall Street overnight fueled by an outsized US rate cut and expectations of a “soft landing” for the US economy. Investors also braced for the Bank of Japan’s policy decision later in the session, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged but signal further rate hikes in future meetings. Latest data showed that Japan’s core inflation rate accelerated to 2.8% in August from 2.7% in July, supporting a hawkish outlook on BOJ policy. Technology stocks led the advance including Lasertec (2.2%), Disco Corp (4.4%), Tokyo Electron (5.3%), Advantest (3.3%) and SoftBank Group (1.5%). Other index heavyweights also posted notable gains such as Fast Retailing (3.8%), Mitsubishi UFJ (2.7%) and Toyota Motor (1.4%). The benchmark indexes are set to advance over 3% this week.

2024年8月，日本核心消费者价格指数（不包括新鲜食品，但包括燃料成本）同比增长2.8%，创下2月以来的最高水平，与市场预期相符。核心通胀指标在7月份上涨2.7%后，也连续第四个月加速。日本的核心通胀率在两年多的时间里一直远高于日本央行2%的目标，支持了央行今年的鹰派转变。日本央行在3月和7月加息，同时表示愿意进一步加息。然而，人们普遍预计央行将在9月份保持政策稳定，然后在10月或12月恢复加息。

The core consumer price index in Japan, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, increased by 2.8% year-on-year in August 2024, posting the highest reading since February and matching market expectations. The core inflation gauge also accelerated for the fourth consecutive month following a 2.7% gain in July. Japan’s core inflation rate remains well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for over two years now, supporting the central bank’s hawkish shift this year. The BOJ raised interest rates in March and July, while signaling willingness to lift rates further. However, the central bank is widely expected to hold policy steady in September before resuming with rate hikes either in October or December.

2024年8月，日本食品价格同比上涨3.6%，高于前一个月2.9%的三年多来最低涨幅。价格上涨的压力来自大多数组件： 新鲜蔬菜（7月份为12.5%对5.2%）、新鲜水果（10.1%对9.6%）、谷物（8.5%对4.2%）、鱼类和海鲜（0.6%对平读数）、肉类（4.6%对3.7%）、蛋糕和糖果（4.1%对4.3%）、熟食（2.5%对2.0%）、饮料（3.9%对3.7%，油、脂肪和调味品（0.2%对0.4%）以及酒精饮料（0.5%对0.6%）。另一方面，乳制品和鸡蛋的成本自2022年1月以来首次下降（-2.8%对0.1%）。

Food prices in Japan increased by 3.6% from a year earlier in August 2024, quickening from the slowest rise in over three years of 2.9% in the prior month. Upward price pressures came from most components: fresh vegetables (12.5% vs 5.2% in July), fresh fruits (10.1% vs 9.6%), cereals (8.5% vs 4.2%), fish & seafood (0.6% vs flat reading), meats (4.6% vs 3.7%), cakes & candies (4.1% vs 4.3%), cooked food (2.5% vs 2.0%), beverages (3.9% vs 3.7%), oil, fats & seasonings (0.2% vs 0.4%), and alcoholic beverages (0.5% vs 0.6%). On the other hand, cost of dairy products & eggs for the first time since January 2022 (-2.8% vs 0.1%).

日本的年通货膨胀率从前三个月的2.8%上升到2024年8月的3.0%，达到2023年10月以来的最高水平。自1981年3月以来，电价上涨幅度最大（26.2%对7月的22.3%），在5月能源补贴完全结束后，天然气成本以1-1/2年来最快的速度上涨（11.1%对7.4%）。此外，食品（3.6%对2.9%）、住房（0.7%对0.6%）、家具和家用器皿（5.2%对3.7%）、服装（2.3%对2.2%）和文化（4.8%对4.4%）的成本加速上涨。与此同时，医疗保健的通货膨胀率保持不变（1.5%），但交通（0.2%对1.2%）和杂项（0.8%对1.3%）的通货膨胀率有所缓解。与此同时，通信（-2.4%对-2.3%）和教育（-1.0%对-1.0%）的价格下跌。与此同时，核心通胀率在8月份达到2.8%的六个月峰值，连续第四个月加速，与市场预测一致。在7月份上涨0.2%之后，8月份CPI环比上涨0.5%，为三个月来最大涨幅。

The annual inflation rate in Japan rose to 3.0% in August 2024 from 2.8% in the prior three months, pointing to the highest level since October 2023. Electricity prices increased the most since March 1981 (26.2% vs 22.3% in July) and the cost of gas went up at the steepest pace in 1-1/2 years (11.1% vs 7.4%) after the full end of energy subsidies in May. Moreover, cost accelerated for food (3.6% vs 2.9%), housing (0.7% vs 0.6%), furniture & household utensils (5.2% vs 3.7%), clothes (2.3% vs 2.2%), and culture (4.8% vs 4.4%). At the same time, inflation was unchanged for healthcare (at 1.5%) but eased for transport (0.2% vs 1.2%) and miscellaneous (0.8% vs 1.3%). Meanwhile, prices fell for communication (-2.4% vs -2.3%) and education (-1.0% vs -1.0%). Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a six-month peak of 2.8% in August, accelerating for the fourth month and aligning with market forecasts. Monthly, the CPI rose by 0.5% in August, the most in three months, after a 0.2% gain in July.