美元/沙特里亚尔 (USDSAR) 加自选

美联储政策会议成为焦点。昨天的第一批美国经济数据并不完全具有开创性。JOLTS 6月份的职位空缺接近预期，为743万个，较5月份的771万个有所缓解，而7月份世界大企业联合会的消费者信心指数从95.2升至97.2，略高于预期。

Fed Policy Meeting Takes Center Stage.Yesterday's first batch of US economic data wasn't exactly groundbreaking. JOLTS job openings in June came in close to expectations with 7.43mln, easing from the 7.71mln in May while the July Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator improved a bit more than expected from 95.2 to 97.2.

美元在美联储潜在的鸽派倾向之前失去动力。人们普遍预计美联储将保持4.25-4.50%的利率不变。市场已经将持有的可能性定为97%以上，使这一决定成为定局。

Dollar loses momentum ahead of Fed's potential dovish tilt.Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged 4.25–4.50%. Markets have priced in over a 97% chance of a hold, making the decision a foregone conclusion.

周三，10年期美国国债收益率在前一交易日大幅下跌后保持在4.33%左右，因为投资者在美联储宣布政策之前采取了谨慎的立场。人们普遍预计美联储将保持利率不变，但市场参与者关注的是任何暗示9月份可能降息的指导。唐纳德·特朗普总统继续向美联储施压，要求其降低借贷成本。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼都被视为领导央行的竞争者，预计他们将在本月的会议上持不同意见。投资者也在关注即将公布的经济数据，包括私人工资、GDP和待售房屋销售，以进一步评估经济的健康状况。与此同时，周二在斯德哥尔摩举行的美中谈判结束后，贸易不确定性依然存在，双方没有就延长目前的休战达成协议。财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，任何协议都需要特朗普的最终批准。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.33% on Wednesday following a sharp drop in the previous session, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but market participants are focused on any guidance suggesting a potential rate cut in September. President Donald Trump has continued to pressure the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both seen as contenders to lead the central bank, are expected to dissent at this month’s meeting. Investors are also eyeing upcoming economic data, including private payrolls, GDP, and pending home sales, to further assess the health of the economy. Meanwhile, trade uncertainty persisted after US-China talks in Stockholm ended Tuesday without a deal to extend the current truce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said any agreement would require Trump’s final approval.

白宫国家经济顾问凯文·哈塞特表示，特朗普政府允许英伟达的H20 AI芯片运往中国，这是一项战略举措，旨在保持美国在先进芯片开发方面的领先地位。谈到这一决定，哈塞特说，“特朗普总统和他的团队决定放弃英伟达芯片”，以避免给中国创新的空间，并可能在芯片技术上超越美国。英伟达最近表示，它正在申请美国政府许可证，以恢复向中国销售H20芯片，并预计很快获得批准。H20是英伟达在中国合法提供的最先进的芯片，尽管与全球版本相比，由于特朗普和拜登政府之前的出口限制，其计算能力有所下降。哈塞特警告说：“如果中国不从我们这里购买芯片，那么他们就会创新，制造自己的芯片。”他强调了在全球人工智能芯片竞赛中保持领先地位的重要性。

White House National Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said the Trump administration allowed Nvidia’s H20 AI chip shipments to China in a strategic move to maintain the U.S. lead in advanced chip development. Referring to the decision, Hassett said, “President Trump and his team decided to let the NVIDIA chips go” to avoid giving China room to innovate and potentially surpass the U.S. in chip technology. Nvidia recently stated it is applying for U.S. government licenses to resume H20 chip sales to China and expects approval soon. The H20 is the most advanced chip Nvidia can legally offer in China, though it has reduced computing power compared to global versions due to previous export restrictions under both Trump and Biden administrations. “If China’s not buying chips from us, then they’re innovating, making their own chips,” Hassett warned, emphasizing the importance of staying ahead in the global AI chip race.